Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

I do worry about finding steamers of the FOMO that Peter's latest video talks about, "Oh look that looks like a Steamer, jump on....bounce!! too late!"

[Realrocknrolla]

I do worry about finding steamers of the FOMO that Peter's latest video talks about, "Oh look that looks like a Steamer, jump on....bounce!! too late!"

Lay it then

[ShaunWhite]

I do worry about finding steamers of the FOMO that Peter's latest video talks about, "Oh look that looks like a Steamer, jump on....bounce!! too late!"

Trends never continue indefinately, and are more likey to fade or bounce at some prices rather than others because you'll never stand in a bookies and hear someone say a horse is worth it down to 2.87645, real people talking in round numbers or traditional odds.

And remember that when Peter says jump on he's making decisions a heck of lot faster than you are. He's also aware of likely bounce points so won't get too involved as one is approaching.

[beermonsterman]

I do worry about finding steamers of the FOMO that Peter's latest video talks about, "Oh look that looks like a Steamer, jump on....bounce!! too late!"

You will start too see it G its exactly what I do is find steamers if you look at the graph's I've put up of steamers you will see that most of them have been cut in price from the start of the day all the way to the off with little retrace and no big bounces they travel in very steady and confidently them are the most likely to continue as they have gathered momentum from early out and if the price of the other runners dont look a threat to the fav steaming you have confidence the trick to finding them is patience the perfect set up dont come round often but when it does its obvious and you will start too see how trading works .

[goat68]

I do worry about finding steamers of the FOMO that Peter's latest video talks about, "Oh look that looks like a Steamer, jump on....bounce!! too late!"

You will start too see it G its exactly what I do is find steamers if you look at the graph's I've put up of steamers you will see that most of them have been cut in price from the start of the day all the way to the off with little retrace and no big bounces they travel in very steady and confidently them are the most likely to continue as they have gathered momentum from early out and if the price of the other runners dont look a threat to the fav steaming you have confidence the trick to finding them is patience the perfect set up dont come round often but when it does its obvious and you will start too see how trading works .

You make an interesting point here Beer, in that my bot is looking at the market only from 30mins out, not the start of the day, you imply the morning move is significant, so I may have to have the bot working all morning...at least just catching the price moves

[Anbell]

I do worry about finding steamers of the FOMO that Peter's latest video talks about, "Oh look that looks like a Steamer, jump on....bounce!! too late!"

You will start too see it G its exactly what I do is find steamers if you look at the graph's I've put up of steamers you will see that most of them have been cut in price from the start of the day all the way to the off with little retrace and no big bounces they travel in very steady and confidently them are the most likely to continue as they have gathered momentum from early out and if the price of the other runners dont look a threat to the fav steaming you have confidence the trick to finding them is patience the perfect set up dont come round often but when it does its obvious and you will start too see how trading works .

You make an interesting point here Beer, in that my bot is looking at the market only from 30mins out, not the start of the day, you imply the morning move is significant, so I may have to have the bot working all morning...at least just catching the price moves

Its so much different here in Australia. 95% of the time I only look at the final 3 mins.

[ShaunWhite]

You will start too see it G its exactly what I do is find steamers if you look at the graph's I've put up of steamers you will see that most of them have been cut in price from the start of the day all the way to the off with little retrace and no big bounces they travel in very steady and confidently them are the most likely to continue as they have gathered momentum from early out and if the price of the other runners dont look a threat to the fav steaming you have confidence the trick to finding them is patience the perfect set up dont come round often but when it does its obvious and you will start too see how trading works .

You make an interesting point here Beer, in that my bot is looking at the market only from 30mins out, not the start of the day, you imply the morning move is significant, so I may have to have the bot working all morning...at least just catching the price moves

Are you manual or auto Beer?

Goat if you're going to try and implement this you'll first need to define.

"cut in price" (absolute/relative/odds/implied odds)
"start of the day" (abs or relative, ie 12:30 races vs 8pm races)
"little retrace" (see cut in price)
"travel in very steady and confidently"
"the price of the other runners dont look a threat"

And then work out if it's profitable by establishing what "most of them" is.

I'm assuming that Beer is a manual guy and therefore he's got all that lovely subjective info (and experience) to draw on whereas all you can do is make objective decisions. He also says the don't come up often, and as you know that going to make your evaluation of how it's performing really difficult. If you're going to be automated you need to remember what you can measure and how you can measure it (generically) and perhaps use automation's abilitity to work at larger scale so you get a larger set of meaningful results much faster.

I thought you were a developer G? if a customer gave you Beer's spec I think you'd send it back covered in red pen and "pls define" underlined.

(no critisism of your method Beer, just highlighting G's problem implementing it)

[goat68]

You will start too see it G its exactly what I do is find steamers if you look at the graph's I've put up of steamers you will see that most of them have been cut in price from the start of the day all the way to the off with little retrace and no big bounces they travel in very steady and confidently them are the most likely to continue as they have gathered momentum from early out and if the price of the other runners dont look a threat to the fav steaming you have confidence the trick to finding them is patience the perfect set up dont come round often but when it does its obvious and you will start too see how trading works .

You make an interesting point here Beer, in that my bot is looking at the market only from 30mins out, not the start of the day, you imply the morning move is significant, so I may have to have the bot working all morning...at least just catching the price moves

Are you manual or auto Beer?

Goat if you're going to try and implement this you'll first need to define.

"cut in price" (absolute/relative/odds/implied odds)
"start of the day" (abs or relative, ie 12:30 races vs 8pm races)
"little retrace" (see cut in price)
"travel in very steady and confidently"
"the price of the other runners dont look a threat"

And then work out if it's profitable by establishing what "most of them" is.

I'm assuming that Beer is a manual guy and therefore he's got all that lovely subjective info (and experience) to draw on whereas all you can do is make objective decisions. He also says the don't come up often, and as you know that going to make your evaluation of how it's performing really difficult. If you're going to be automated you need to remember what you can measure and how you can measure it (generically) and perhaps use automation's abilitity to work at larger scale so you get a larger set of meaningful results much faster.

I thought you were a developer G? if a customer gave you Beer's spec I think you'd send it back covered in red pen and "pls define" underlined.

(no critisism of your method Beer, just highlighting G's problem implementing it)

Well described Shaun! Yes, the difference between auto and manual in this case is highlighted by all those objective things Beer spots... that unless i've coded my rules right I end up in numerous false positive hits that end up in small losses...which negate any big win when a steamer hits! I'm not exactly following the same scenario as Beer's steamers for that reason. I think I mention i'm using my "being backed" metric, and my own version of is it in a decent vwap downtrend...stronger than the other runners... Along those lines anyway, but my aim is to measure performance of the strategy and cut off the deadwood to nudge it towards profitability...

[goat68]

This is the difference between auto and manual, imagine if you throw in another half-dozen of losses in between every Steamer you found, you end up overall loss.... Auto isn't that simple!

[beermonsterman]

This is the difference between auto and manual, imagine if you throw in another half-dozen of losses in between every Steamer you found, you end up overall loss.... Auto isn't that simple!

I have tried to automate it and never succeeded to put into automation what I see live is completely unexplainable in automation

[beermonsterman]

You will start too see it G its exactly what I do is find steamers if you look at the graph's I've put up of steamers you will see that most of them have been cut in price from the start of the day all the way to the off with little retrace and no big bounces they travel in very steady and confidently them are the most likely to continue as they have gathered momentum from early out and if the price of the other runners dont look a threat to the fav steaming you have confidence the trick to finding them is patience the perfect set up dont come round often but when it does its obvious and you will start too see how trading works .

You make an interesting point here Beer, in that my bot is looking at the market only from 30mins out, not the start of the day, you imply the morning move is significant, so I may have to have the bot working all morning...at least just catching the price moves

Are you manual or auto Beer?

Goat if you're going to try and implement this you'll first need to define.

"cut in price" (absolute/relative/odds/implied odds)
"start of the day" (abs or relative, ie 12:30 races vs 8pm races)
"little retrace" (see cut in price)
"travel in very steady and confidently"
"the price of the other runners dont look a threat"

And then work out if it's profitable by establishing what "most of them" is.

I'm assuming that Beer is a manual guy and therefore he's got all that lovely subjective info (and experience) to draw on whereas all you can do is make objective decisions. He also says the don't come up often, and as you know that going to make your evaluation of how it's performing really difficult. If you're going to be automated you need to remember what you can measure and how you can measure it (generically) and perhaps use automation's abilitity to work at larger scale so you get a larger set of meaningful results much faster.

I thought you were a developer G? if a customer gave you Beer's spec I think you'd send it back covered in red pen and "pls define" underlined.

(no critisism of your method Beer, just highlighting G's problem implementing it)

Non Taken shaun I was happy to hear your thoughts on the subject

[ShaunWhite]

Non Taken shaun I was happy to hear your thoughts on the subject

If only automation could come within 10% of what brains can do we'd be quids in. You say look for an early move and we spend a week trying to understand what 'move' and 'early' actually means. What we're lacking is that ability to just smell when a trade is on the cards.

[goat68]

Minor victory, bot made a profit today, wait for it.................. +£0.17

[beermonsterman]

Minor victory, bot made a profit today, wait for it.................. +£0.17

[The Silk Run]

BIG Hitter ....
I'm mourning one of my automation strategies this evening. After serving me well for almost three years, today it took a hit for GBP 350. I will audit later and investigate what happened !!! I have read on occasions life expectancy average 2/3 years