Trading What I see !?

The sport of kings.
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andy28
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It is a great tool thanks for that
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goat68
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September drawdown continuing... already wiped last month's profit! however in theory since I have 3 strategies in play here drawdowns of this magnitude are expected... still holding confidence in them, as they all backtest with P-values over a 4 month period of 0.02%, 1.89% and 2.2%
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Snaff
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Tough going goat but I admire your honesty, I don’t think many at this game would do the same. Someone most can relate to. Keep your head up mate.
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goat68
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With drawdowns there's definitely a lot more anxiety when it's your own money, as opposed to profit money. Eg.if i had made say £1000 and was now suffering a £200 drawdown, it's easier to handle, as opposed to my current situation of a -£200 drawdown and -£560 trading lifetime....
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:48 am
With drawdowns there's definitely a lot more anxiety when it's your own money, as opposed to profit money.
"profit money" is your money.

The language of gambling is designed to make the customer less attached to their "winnings" than the other money they may have earned so like you, they care a little less about giving it back. It's a corrosive mentality you'll need to get rid of otherwise you'll always just give back your hard earned profit.
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goat68
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Getting a bit hacked off, these strategies are the best I can come up with and months worths of effort...
Screenshot 2021-09-15 at 15.36.54.png
but that's what drawdowns do to you, they install doubt !
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:40 pm
Getting a bit hacked off, these strategies are the best I can come up with and months worths of effort.
It was only about 3 months ago when you started collecting data and learning how to test properly wasn't it? It's a frustrating game sometimes but try to remember most of your first year's stuff was using totally different methods and I (and others) did say you'd need 3 or 4 months data as a minimum before you can even start to look for anything. These aren't the best you can do just the best you've been able to do so far.

If you're getting different live results to your backtest then there must be a flaw in your methodolog or certainly might be. Until you iron that out then take these results with a large pinch of salt.
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:59 pm
they all backtest with P-values over a 4 month period of 0.02%, 1.89% and 2.2%
I'm assuming you mean the likelihood that it's just random? Those still don't rule out the spector of backfitting, in fact backfitting inherently produces low probabilities. I'm more inclined to produce a range of backtest results from multiple random samples and compare them to completely eliminate that possibility, as I explained quite a while back in this thread.

P-values are only as good as the critical thinking that went into producing them. Stated as stand alone facts they don't mean much and with all 3 being sub 3% then I'd be more sure they were wrong than being sure they were right. The one that's 0.02% is so far away from logical given your sample size that alone would make me highly suspicious, can it really be a 5000/1 on bet it's a winner?

I don't think it's that you can't find anything more a case that you're so keen to find something you've stopped being as rigorous as you need to be?
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goat68
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:31 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:59 pm
they all backtest with P-values over a 4 month period of 0.02%, 1.89% and 2.2%

P-values are only as good as the critical thinking that went into producing them. Stated as stand alone facts they don't mean much and with all 3 being sub 3% then I'd be more sure they were wrong than being sure they were right. The one that's 0.02% is so far away from logical given your sample size that alone would make me highly suspicious, can it really be a 5000/1 on bet it's a winner?
not sure that's what Pvalue quite is, it's the odds of it not achieving a 0% yield over the given sample size I think. So a probability of 0.02% that in say 5000 bets it does not achieve a 0% yield, ie.breakeven.
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ruthlessimon
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goat68 wrote:
Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:40 pm
Getting a bit hacked off, these strategies are the best I can come up with and months worths of effort...
How many outsamples did you do?
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