Trading What I see !?

The sport of kings.
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:44 pm
Paper testing lets me do that with reasonable accuracy
No it doesn't.

Here's a brief thread with comments from Euler, LinusP, Dallas and me all basically saying just that viewtopic.php?f=37&t=19982&p=205043&hilit=
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:36 am
goat68 wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:44 pm
Paper testing lets me do that with reasonable accuracy
No it doesn't.

Here's a brief thread with comments from Euler, LinusP, Dallas and me all basically saying just that viewtopic.php?f=37&t=19982&p=205043&hilit=
I stand by what I said, and already understand what is in that thread...and is within my expression of reasonable...
Backtesting v paper trading is the same emulation, but what is different is the psychological approach to strategy development.
Bactesting is all theory
Paper i can watch the live dog race, evaluate prices, watch dogs run, compare market view vs my model, and examine a single race in detail
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

The other psychological affect of paper trading, is it slows you down... which probably sounds negative to you... but it makes you think, rather than zooming down avenues of data mining...

My approach will probably actually be in reverse, develop the strategy paper trading, then backtest once I have the framework to do so. I need to setup a retrospective "web scrape", ie.get dog form data as if it was scraped on Wed 24th Sept 14:36pm...!
Cardano
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Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:02 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 7:48 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:36 am
goat68 wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 4:44 pm
Paper testing lets me do that with reasonable accuracy
No it doesn't.

Here's a brief thread with comments from Euler, LinusP, Dallas and me all basically saying just that viewtopic.php?f=37&t=19982&p=205043&hilit=
I stand by what I said, and already understand what is in that thread...and is within my expression of reasonable...
Backtesting v paper trading is the same emulation, but what is different is the psychological approach to strategy development.
Bactesting is all theory
Paper i can watch the live dog race, evaluate prices, watch dogs run, compare market view vs my model, and examine a single race in detail
I completely agree with you Goat regarding the psychological approach to strategy development - back testing is all theory
Reading last years newspapers isn't going to tell you what the news will be tomorrow.
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Cardano wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:04 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:48 pm
Straight backing or laying is only gambling if you don't know what you're doing. There are plenty of people who reduce their commission by straight backing and laying.

Just like back testing is only pointless if you don't know what you're looking for. If you spot something when trading live you can then back test the data you've collected to see if it repeats. However collecting data and then looking for patterns in it is probably not so worthwhile.
"There are plenty of people who reduce their commission by straight backing and laying."
Can you explain that comment a bit more
Sorry that was a mistype... I meant increase commission to help reduce PC
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goat68
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So i've done as Shaun suggested and run a BSP efficiency test on UK greyhounds for August markets:
4400 markets, £1 on every dog, BSP adjusted to 100% book, net -£185 for the month, efficient or not ??:
Screenshot 2021-11-25 at 21.40.05.png
I'm going to run it on 5 months of data now...
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goat68
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Hmm, just trying to figure, why did I adjust for book% ? can't get my head around it?
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goat68
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I think I might have adjusted BSP the wrong way
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goat68
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so yes I did, of course bookie takes a cut of true price, so need to improve BSP by x(book%/100.0)
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goat68
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That's a bit better:
Screenshot 2021-11-25 at 22.07.46.png
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