Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Trader724
Posts: 562
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

If anyone is interested, my opinion is that many fail because they start with what they think is the easiest when in fact it is the hardest.

It is very difficult to find wrong prices that are favorable, but it is not necessary to do such a thing to make money.

Probably many of the profitable ones on this forum make a profit by alternating two or more unprofitable strategies, a Markov chain, but they don't even realize it, believing that they get value, or valuable bets.

So yes, it is possible to make a profit using two unprofitable strategies, just as it is possible to lose money using two profitable strategies in the wrong way.

Seeing your evolution, my opinion is that you have to learn to use correctly two unprofitable strategies, namely trading, and leave valuable bets for those with much more information.
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napshnap
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

Trader724 wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:08 pm
If anyone is interested, my opinion is that many fail because they start with what they think is the easiest when in fact it is the hardest.

...
Hey! Don't you see - this is 322 pages thread for discussion abount women!

But, seriously, you should specify that you're taking about two unprofitable BETTING strategies. It's not so obviuos for newbs.
Last edited by napshnap on Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Trader724
Posts: 562
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

napshnap wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:30 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:08 pm
If anyone is interested, my opinion is that many fail because they start with what they think is the easiest when in fact it is the hardest.

...
Hey! Don't you see - this is 322 pages thread for discussion abount women!

But, seriously, you should specify that you're taking about two unprofitable BETTING strategies. It's not so obviuos for newbs.
It is valid for any kind of strategy, as long as the result of one derives from the result of the other.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Hmmm, this is looking interesting......... :idea:
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Being running a greyhound form data collection script and from just running over 2months worth of races in UK, just incredible how many dogs there are nearly 7000 !
Last edited by goat68 on Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

I have my model backtest script up and running now Shaun :-)
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:46 pm
just incredible how many dogs there are nearly 7000 !
Far too many dogs are given a cert to race. Greyhound rescue centres are full of unwanted dogs because they get bred and dumped after someone's got bored with them. Dog racing is the one I struggle most with from a moral perspective.
PapaShango
Posts: 85
Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:28 pm

Far too many dogs are given a cert to race. Greyhound rescue centres are full of unwanted dogs because they get bred and dumped after someone's got bored with them. Dog racing is the one I struggle most with from a moral perspective.
Could always turn your dog bots off then , Shaun ?

Might help you sleep easier at night ( or day, whenever it is you sleep ).
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

I think I may have found something with my greyhound model.
Did some analysis on 1month with my new backtest setup, then applied strategy to 6month sample
Looks very promising :-)
Screenshot 2021-12-04 at 10.28.34.png
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Kai
Posts: 6196
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

May I suggest a slight tweak Goaty?

To rename cum_pnl into ANYTHING else if possible :)
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Kai wrote:
Sat Dec 04, 2021 10:36 am
May I suggest a slight tweak Goaty?

To rename cum_pnl into ANYTHING else if possible :)
had to be you Kai!
I didn't read that at all!
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Kai
Posts: 6196
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sat Dec 04, 2021 10:41 am
Kai wrote:
Sat Dec 04, 2021 10:36 am
May I suggest a slight tweak Goaty?

To rename cum_pnl into ANYTHING else if possible :)
had to be you Kai!
I didn't read that at all!
Someone has to beat Derek to it! :D

Good luck with the strategy.
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sat Dec 04, 2021 10:30 am
I think I may have found something with my greyhound model.
Did some analysis on 1month with my new backtest setup, then applied strategy to 6month sample
Looks very promising :-)
Screenshot 2021-12-04 at 10.28.34.png
👏👏👏
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Throwing a bit of money at this one, see how it compares to backtest, running "paper trade" strategy in parallel to check consistency.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Tweaked the signal slightly to get more bets, slightly lower %return, but more net PnL
Screenshot 2021-12-05 at 09.23.29.png
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