Trading What I see !?

[Kai]

I watch the videos and stop every second,to understand every aspect ...i should trade 10 to 5 minutes before the off,much simple...no..i want learn to trade the last 5 minutes before the off.

Is becoming a challenge for me

Ex fulltimer? That must be some contrast, the markets then and now

In short I'd just say to look deeper into the psychology behind the markets and you'll find no shortage of opportunity, be it on racing or elsewhere, should make reading order flow make more sense if that's how you want to trade.

Like they say, for every price action there is an equal market overreaction Or something along those lines. Best of luck.

It hasn't changed that much...15 years ago the market looked like what it is now in Australian horse racing...ok, there were less gaps to get into, but the level of skill required to earn money in the current Australian horse racing market is what was required 15 years ago in the British horse market....
It's just that the easy money has gradually been taken and everything is more efficient today.


Anyway,it all seems so perfect to me,as if every overreaction was absorbed by a very skilled market mover..but ok.no doubt I'll try.

Well, it may seem perfect and efficient in the long run, but the short term volatility is ridiculous at times on many markets, so it's down to us to work out the details so we can catch some of this volatility. I always encourage people to look at the bigger picture and the markets as a whole, outside of their one invididual market, to try and find what they have in common etc.

Markets haven't changed much in 15 years? Not sure about that one, seen some very old footage and heard many stories from all sorts of older fulltimers, the profitability threshold overall was apparently very low and they're all complaining that the good old days are long gone (including Psychoff). Heard the same from arbers and those that abused a certain niche elsewhere, everything has gotten progressively harder and more competitive, as you'd expect

Even in the these short 5 years that I've been active and fulltime the threshold has considerably risen on basically every market I looked at. But as a trader ideally you're supposed to get better every year and keep improving your overall trading skillset to stay ahead of the curve, so I guess it does almost balance out.

[vhdgkl]

Let's say there are a lot of areas where you can earn money...I agree.
For example in live football the price movements are still too much linked to the passing of time, and still too little to the dynamics of the game...I can imagine that you can profit from this aspect, for example by trading the under over.
You can profit by opening a South African race in the last 2 minutes before the start and wait for that one time out of 10 that a very high amount bet appears, to trade the fact that the guy wants that bet to be matched and will therefore accept a very low odds....

You can wait for those 2 days a month when repetitive and largely fallacious behaviour is created on greyhound market.

I can mark football pitches that become a quagmire when it rains a lot because they don't drain well...watch the weather forecast and listen to the news (not for premier league) on the pitches...when the opportunity arises back on the under ..the Siena stadium for example.

And a thousand other things you can do.

I completely agree that there are many opportunities...but let's say that it's not for me...I'm not keen on the idea.


I love trading in the final 5 minutes prerace, when the bulk of the liquidity comes in..I think it is the most difficult market that exists on betfair..but solving this puzzle is too exciting for me..
So much so that I do trading in practice mode not because I'm afraid of losing money..but because I don't need to put money to have fun..I have fun like crazy even in practice mode.
I like it too much.

Tomorrow I'll make an outline of the factors that I think are important..I'll write them down in a notebook,and make a note of how the market reacts when those situations arise.

I really like to have a general model of the various races..so I take a lot of factors into account..
But if you don't recommend this way, because it is too chaotic, I can do it the other way around...I just take one aspect and try it again and again until I try to understand in which situations it works...for example I take the top and bottom of a range and back at the high and lay at the bottom...or vice versa, back at the bottom and lay at the top....and then with time understand when it works and when it doesn't...but I am not very inspired by this...do you suggest this second way rather than a more sophisticated model?

[Kai]

I suggest to read this entire thread and extract notes from that Also, to follow the daily racing thread.

[napshnap]

Let's say there are a lot of areas where you can earn money...I agree. ...

Seems like you are good at spotting some proffitablу patterns. I highly recommend you to think about automation.

[jimibt]

Let's say there are a lot of areas where you can earn money...I agree. ...

Seems like you are good at spotting some proffitablу patterns. I highly recommend to think about automation.

agree 100%. by using automation you would literally free yourself up to observe other events and form further automation strategies. The combo of BA -> BF literally could be your goldmine, if you are able to translate that pattern recognition knowledge down onto *paper*.

for anyone starting out on this journey, I thoughroughly recommned using diagrams.net in chrome (https://chrome.google.com/webstore/deta ... d?hl=en-GB) in order to map out your plan. using a tool such as this will allow you to design your automation in a modular/considered fashion. and as a side benefit, you will find that you can re-use parts of the diagram(s) for other automation projects, thus alerting you to the parts of code that can be re-used.

anyway, many ways to skin a cat... enjoy what you're doing whichever way.

[goat68]

Let's say there are a lot of areas where you can earn money...I agree. ...

Seems like you are good at spotting some proffitablу patterns. I highly recommend to think about automation.

agree 100%. by using automation you would literally free yourself up to observe other events and form further automation strategies. The combo of BA -> BF literally could be your goldmine, if you are able to translate that pattern recognition knowledge down onto *paper*.

for anyone starting out on this journey, I thoughroughly recommned using diagrams.net in chrome (https://chrome.google.com/webstore/deta ... d?hl=en-GB) in order to map out your plan. using a tool such as this will allow you to design your automation in a modular/considered fashion. and as a side benefit, you will find that you can re-use parts of the diagram(s) for other automation projects, thus alerting you to the parts of code that can be re-used.

anyway, many ways to skin a cat... enjoy what you're doing whichever way.

i'm loving the BA Guardian automation, i'm working on my 3rd bot now, a new strategy I have every hope for this one! That being said, as per what Kai said I am noticing the efficiency of the market when employing standard well known strategies, which makes them breakeven at best. But, I am working on something new now (sshhh top secret!)

[goat68]

New bot not doing particularly well, i'm looking for the next random thing to change in the hope it turns +ve...

[goat68]

Markets seems a battle at the moment, just a gentle grind into -ve territory, I'm hoping it's the time of year, how is everyone else doing?

[TraderFred]

Markets seems a battle at the moment, just a gentle grind into -ve territory, I'm hoping it's the time of year, how is everyone else doing?

It’s very quiet at the moment, goat68. Even by January standards. Lots of meetings falling to the weather so far this year.

[kamil2402]

Let's say there are a lot of areas where you can earn money...I agree.
For example in live football the price movements are still too much linked to the passing of time, and still too little to the dynamics of the game...I can imagine that you can profit from this aspect, for example by trading the under over.
You can profit by opening a South African race in the last 2 minutes before the start and wait for that one time out of 10 that a very high amount bet appears, to trade the fact that the guy wants that bet to be matched and will therefore accept a very low odds....

You can wait for those 2 days a month when repetitive and largely fallacious behaviour is created on greyhound market.

I can mark football pitches that become a quagmire when it rains a lot because they don't drain well...watch the weather forecast and listen to the news (not for premier league) on the pitches...when the opportunity arises back on the under ..the Siena stadium for example.

And a thousand other things you can do.

I completely agree that there are many opportunities...but let's say that it's not for me...I'm not keen on the idea.


I love trading in the final 5 minutes prerace, when the bulk of the liquidity comes in..I think it is the most difficult market that exists on betfair..but solving this puzzle is too exciting for me..
So much so that I do trading in practice mode not because I'm afraid of losing money..but because I don't need to put money to have fun..I have fun like crazy even in practice mode.
I like it too much.

Tomorrow I'll make an outline of the factors that I think are important..I'll write them down in a notebook,and make a note of how the market reacts when those situations arise.

I really like to have a general model of the various races..so I take a lot of factors into account..
But if you don't recommend this way, because it is too chaotic, I can do it the other way around...I just take one aspect and try it again and again until I try to understand in which situations it works...for example I take the top and bottom of a range and back at the high and lay at the bottom...or vice versa, back at the bottom and lay at the top....and then with time understand when it works and when it doesn't...but I am not very inspired by this...do you suggest this second way rather than a more sophisticated model?

If you want you can pm me and we can bounce some ideas off each other.

[kamil2402]

Markets seems a battle at the moment, just a gentle grind into -ve territory, I'm hoping it's the time of year, how is everyone else doing?

Did pretty well yesterday 70% strike rate, all manual pre race. Traded 13 markets in total. They reminded me very much of greyhound markets.

[vhdgkl]

now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge

[goat68]

now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge

Hi, thanks for this. So you saw a load of money queued at 5.2 not being taken but the price was lower and because other traders also see that money waiting they all pushed the price down to 4? Seems a odd not sure i understand?

[vhdgkl]

now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge

Hi, thanks for this. So you saw a load of money queued at 5.2 not being taken but the price was lower and because other traders also see that money waiting they all pushed the price down to 4? Seems a odd not sure i understand?

jes..last minute before the off...
not in uk.
in south african horse racing..in usa horse racing..in australia harness..where there is a bit of money,but not too much to attract traders---and,in horse racing markets, as themoney comes in at the last, because of the characterisics of horse markets.
large bets last minute before the off?trade,trade that money
1 out of 10 times?...min,30pounds.

[goat68]

now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge

Hi, thanks for this. So you saw a load of money queued at 5.2 not being taken but the price was lower and because other traders also see that money waiting they all pushed the price down to 4? Seems a odd not sure i understand?

jes..last minute before the off...
not in uk.
in south african horse racing..in usa horse racing..in australia harness..where there is a bit of money,but not too much to attract traders---and,in horse racing markets, as themoney comes in at the last, because of the characterisics of horse markets.
large bets last minute before the off?trade,trade that money
1 out of 10 times?...min,30pounds.

Its interesting you mention not too much money to attract traders, i think i see what you mean, the UK racing has too much volume and traders so the market just gets efficient with little movement and thus few opportunities...