Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

Another nice winner thank you Roman Spinner

what do you mean? race is not run yet.

It's a trade, I've greened up already !

[goat68]

Another nice winner thank you Roman Spinner

what do you mean? race is not run yet.

When I say winner, I mean a good profit, sorry to confuse

[goat68]

So 18:45 looking like a no trade at the moment... Nothing illogical about it at the minute....
You see I'm not being totally stupid!

[to75ne]

Another nice winner thank you Roman Spinner

what do you mean? race is not run yet.

When I say winner, I mean a good profit, sorry to confuse

got it, i was not sure if your trading or straight backing/laying

[Trader Pat]

If my logic is slightly better than random I will make profit yes?

Logic is only one piece of the puzzle. What about your staking? You increased stakes on a race because you lost money on the previous one. That's lack of discipline.

If your logic is sound, and your discipline is sound you should make money. But if you're staking based on previous results then your discipline is off.

And that's not a criticism because I've been there. It seems to me that your emotionally attached to your trades, most likely because you're over staking.

Nobody here is getting on your back, we can just see where you're going wrong. You need to reduce stakes until you have a better understanding of what you see in front of you. Otherwise you're just hoping it works out.

[goat68]

So 18:45 definitely no trade, I reckon you'd be gambling swinging on it! There you go straight from the horses mouth!

[Korattt]

I thought it was called Subjective trading?

no, its called lucking out.

It's not totally random, I'm following Peter's philosophy based on his experiences with Academics and pro-punters who say that horse isn't going to do that there is absolutely no way it can win because....

because.. https://bit.ly/2HGakg7

[Kai]

With comments like that I feel like Mr Goat has already given up and is just messing about ever since

Not sure how many weeks ago that was, but I think there was a big shift in mindset at one point. Seen a lot of people give up and that sounded just like that.

[smallplayer]

Hi Goat. don't if helpful, but sometimes if I have free time and I have already traded my daytime session with normal bank, I will do some evening races using £2 stakes and experiment with all kinds of crazy stuff. Never can lose too much and its a a way to explore all those wacky ideas you may have. Plus you are getting more screen time and doing different stuff so you may spots things you never have before.

[Maturin]

This is what is so frustrating, a good run of wins and then give it all back on one wrong trade. I backed at 5.9, got out at 8.4 for a loss
It jumped straight past 6 to 6.8, I then evaluated other horses and they still pointed at it coming back in but it didn't I then waited for a pullback to trade out but it just shot out to 8s...

Price movement is so noisy and random, even if you pick the right direction you've got to give it room, and because of that noise you are very rarely going to enter at the best price, so going from say 5.9 out to 6.6 then back down to 5.3 for a profit would be quite normal... If you closed immediately it hit say 6.2 you'd kill most of your profit, also if you waited to enter at 6.2 most of the time you would never get a trade....

I'm seeing very little evidence that this game is a profitable one, I'm sort of taking all your words for it.....???

Goat can you remember why you backed on this particular trade? What was the long term trend, if there was one? You also backed just below a cross-over point, which is risky due to the tick increment change here if it goes against you.

[goat68]

Hi Goat. don't if helpful, but sometimes if I have free time and I have already traded my daytime session with normal bank, I will do some evening races using £2 stakes and experiment with all kinds of crazy stuff. Never can lose too much and its a a way to explore all those wacky ideas you may have. Plus you are getting more screen time and doing different stuff so you may spots things you never have before.

Thanks smallplayer, I did £5 stakes for a while, and I found it has drawbacks, because you can trade any old liquidity, which isn't actually good practice in my view, assuming you have scaling in mind. Also, being honest through a bit of luck, I am actually in profit for the 6 months I have been at this, especially after today. Things went pear shape on my last illogical trade, the fav shot northwards and I was staring -£20 if I greened, or -£50/+£160 if I let it run...god knows why the price shot northwards the darn thing won ! Disregarding this last one, it's being a good day except for that one rogue trade. I'm afraid you will find me a bit unorthodox !! Not quite given up @Kai, just a shift in mindset, I did say I was taking a new turn...

TodayPL.jpg

[goat68]

This is what is so frustrating, a good run of wins and then give it all back on one wrong trade. I backed at 5.9, got out at 8.4 for a loss
It jumped straight past 6 to 6.8, I then evaluated other horses and they still pointed at it coming back in but it didn't I then waited for a pullback to trade out but it just shot out to 8s...

Price movement is so noisy and random, even if you pick the right direction you've got to give it room, and because of that noise you are very rarely going to enter at the best price, so going from say 5.9 out to 6.6 then back down to 5.3 for a profit would be quite normal... If you closed immediately it hit say 6.2 you'd kill most of your profit, also if you waited to enter at 6.2 most of the time you would never get a trade....

I'm seeing very little evidence that this game is a profitable one, I'm sort of taking all your words for it.....???

Goat can you remember why you backed on this particular trade? What was the long term trend, if there was one? You also backed just below a cross-over point, which is risky due to the tick increment change here if it goes against you.

Being honest, I did realize afterwards my misstake with the crossover... Again, the reason was based on my view traders would definitely not think the price was coming in... You see if you think about it you're asking that very question, ie."Why the hell did you do that?" !!!

[goat68]

I'm using larger stakes now, but with the liquidity I am actually being far more race selective.

[Maturin]

Today's results look quite good to me Goat, what's all the fuss about! Even if that one you let run was a loss, you still would have been up over all.

What stake size was that? Not minimum stakes that's for sure!

[Trader Pat]

Hi Goat. don't if helpful, but sometimes if I have free time and I have already traded my daytime session with normal bank, I will do some evening races using £2 stakes and experiment with all kinds of crazy stuff. Never can lose too much and its a a way to explore all those wacky ideas you may have. Plus you are getting more screen time and doing different stuff so you may spots things you never have before.

Thanks smallplayer, I did £5 stakes for a while, and I found it has drawbacks, because you can trade any old liquidity, which isn't actually good practice in my view, assuming you have scaling in mind. Also, being honest through a bit of luck, I am actually in profit for the 6 months I have been at this, especially after today. Things went pear shape on my last illogical trade, the fav shot northwards and I was staring -£20 if I greened, or -£50/+£160 if I let it run...god knows why the price shot northwards the darn thing won ! Disregarding this last one, it's being a good day except for that one rogue trade. I'm afraid you will find me a bit unorthodox !! Not quite given up @Kai, just a shift in mindset, I did say I was taking a new turn...
TodayPL.jpg

Last thing I'm going to say, you're having difficulty reading markets and you're using larger stakes! You're going to blow your bank at some point.

Good luck goat, I really hope you prove me wrong I mean that