I don’t think back testing is a waste of time. But i do think it depends on what strategy/sport you are testing.
Is checking a horse form over a certain period of time back testing?
Is checking if a horse has DOBBED more than 50% of its runs back testing?
Is looking for an average goal time in the last ten meetings of a football match back testing?
I never back test dogs though
Trading What I see !?
How many successful strategies have you developed using 'back testing' ?Realrocknrolla wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:08 pmI don’t think back testing is a waste of time. But i do think it depends on what strategy/sport you are testing.
Is checking a horse form over a certain period of time back testing?
Is checking if a horse has DOBBED more than 50% of its runs back testing?
Is looking for an average goal time in the last ten meetings of a football match back testing?
I never back test dogs though
- Realrocknrolla
- Posts: 1903
- Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm
Plenty if the rules above apply.Cardano wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:28 pmHow many successful strategies have you developed using 'back testing' ?Realrocknrolla wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:08 pmI don’t think back testing is a waste of time. But i do think it depends on what strategy/sport you are testing.
Is checking a horse form over a certain period of time back testing?
Is checking if a horse has DOBBED more than 50% of its runs back testing?
Is looking for an average goal time in the last ten meetings of a football match back testing?
I never back test dogs though
Define a time frame on back testing.
Backtesting allows you to simulate a trading strategy using historical data to generate results and analyse risk and profitability before risking any of your balance. I would recommend paper trading if you find anything that has legs and bin something that doesn’t. Also you have to be honest with yourself going forward otherwise a strategy you are running won’t be true.
As Peter said in his video, he has tweaked and branched off many times. Probably like a lot of us.
I have a Devil Bot. I called it that because it is version 6.66.
I would recommend 'forward testing' combined with analysis as Peter advises.Realrocknrolla wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:46 pmPlenty if the rules above apply.Cardano wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:28 pmHow many successful strategies have you developed using 'back testing' ?Realrocknrolla wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:08 pmI don’t think back testing is a waste of time. But i do think it depends on what strategy/sport you are testing.
Is checking a horse form over a certain period of time back testing?
Is checking if a horse has DOBBED more than 50% of its runs back testing?
Is looking for an average goal time in the last ten meetings of a football match back testing?
I never back test dogs though
Define a time frame on back testing.
Backtesting allows you to simulate a trading strategy using historical data to generate results and analyse risk and profitability before risking any of your balance. I would recommend paper trading if you find anything that has legs and bin something that doesn’t. Also you have to be honest with yourself going forward otherwise a strategy you are running won’t be true.
As Peter said in his video, he has tweaked and branched off many times. Probably like a lot of us.
I have a Devil Bot. I called it that because it is version 6.66.
Wear-the-fox-hat …apologies for slaughtering your name. I find the little acorns strategy one that has proven all kinds of weather just like a foxwearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:58 pm
The gift that keeps on giving..(2 out of 3 today)
Weth 1.15.png
Dundalk 2.00.png
Weth 4.20.png
the results vary depending on how you define a favourite and at what time you enter the market .
My selection process has now been extended into the in -play trading window. There is more volume and higher levels of participation in this markets and I guess traders have gained more confidence provided by TPD data .
- Realrocknrolla
- Posts: 1903
- Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm
I would recommend back testing on certain strategies. Backtesting is one of the most important aspects of developing a trading system.Cardano wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:11 pmI would recommend 'forward testing' combined with analysis as Peter advises.Realrocknrolla wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:46 pmPlenty if the rules above apply.
Define a time frame on back testing.
Backtesting allows you to simulate a trading strategy using historical data to generate results and analyse risk and profitability before risking any of your balance. I would recommend paper trading if you find anything that has legs and bin something that doesn’t. Also you have to be honest with yourself going forward otherwise a strategy you are running won’t be true.
As Peter said in his video, he has tweaked and branched off many times. Probably like a lot of us.
I have a Devil Bot. I called it that because it is version 6.66.
If created and interpreted properly, it can help you optimise and improve your strategy, find any technical or theoretical flaws, as well as gain confidence in your strategy before applying it to the live markets.
And again you will be able to manage your risk etc.
Just my opinion. You and Peter have yours.
Good Luck
PS - In one of your earlier post you said that no one would be profitable from backing straight or laying straight… this isn’t the case for me. I have profitable backing and laying strategies.
Just to clarify the above comment you need to 'offset; your 'back bets' with a 'lay bet' and vice-versaRealrocknrolla wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:30 pmI would recommend back testing on certain strategies. Backtesting is one of the most important aspects of developing a trading system.Cardano wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:11 pmI would recommend 'forward testing' combined with analysis as Peter advises.Realrocknrolla wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:46 pm
Plenty if the rules above apply.
Define a time frame on back testing.
Backtesting allows you to simulate a trading strategy using historical data to generate results and analyse risk and profitability before risking any of your balance. I would recommend paper trading if you find anything that has legs and bin something that doesn’t. Also you have to be honest with yourself going forward otherwise a strategy you are running won’t be true.
As Peter said in his video, he has tweaked and branched off many times. Probably like a lot of us.
I have a Devil Bot. I called it that because it is version 6.66.
If created and interpreted properly, it can help you optimise and improve your strategy, find any technical or theoretical flaws, as well as gain confidence in your strategy before applying it to the live markets.
And again you will be able to manage your risk etc.
Just my opinion. You and Peter have yours.
Good Luck
PS - In one of your earlier post you said that no one would be profitable from backing straight or laying straight… this isn’t the case for me. I have profitable backing and laying strategies.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
yepCardano wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:00 pmJust to clarify the above comment you need to 'offset; your 'back bets' with a 'lay bet' and vice-versaRealrocknrolla wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:30 pmI would recommend back testing on certain strategies. Backtesting is one of the most important aspects of developing a trading system.
If created and interpreted properly, it can help you optimise and improve your strategy, find any technical or theoretical flaws, as well as gain confidence in your strategy before applying it to the live markets.
And again you will be able to manage your risk etc.
Just my opinion. You and Peter have yours.
Good Luck
PS - In one of your earlier post you said that no one would be profitable from backing straight or laying straight… this isn’t the case for me. I have profitable backing and laying strategies.
- Realrocknrolla
- Posts: 1903
- Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm
Sorry I don’t understand what you mean?Cardano wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:00 pmJust to clarify the above comment you need to 'offset; your 'back bets' with a 'lay bet' and vice-versaRealrocknrolla wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:30 pmI would recommend back testing on certain strategies. Backtesting is one of the most important aspects of developing a trading system.
If created and interpreted properly, it can help you optimise and improve your strategy, find any technical or theoretical flaws, as well as gain confidence in your strategy before applying it to the live markets.
And again you will be able to manage your risk etc.
Just my opinion. You and Peter have yours.
Good Luck
PS - In one of your earlier post you said that no one would be profitable from backing straight or laying straight… this isn’t the case for me. I have profitable backing and laying strategies.
What don't you understand !!Realrocknrolla wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:04 pmSorry I don’t understand what you mean?Cardano wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:00 pmJust to clarify the above comment you need to 'offset; your 'back bets' with a 'lay bet' and vice-versaRealrocknrolla wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:30 pm
I would recommend back testing on certain strategies. Backtesting is one of the most important aspects of developing a trading system.
If created and interpreted properly, it can help you optimise and improve your strategy, find any technical or theoretical flaws, as well as gain confidence in your strategy before applying it to the live markets.
And again you will be able to manage your risk etc.
Just my opinion. You and Peter have yours.
Good Luck
PS - In one of your earlier post you said that no one would be profitable from backing straight or laying straight… this isn’t the case for me. I have profitable backing and laying strategies.
I've clarified what I mean with the two attachments
You're clarifying your comment, not the above I presume?Cardano wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:00 pmJust to clarify the above comment you need to 'offset; your 'back bets' with a 'lay bet' and vice-versaRealrocknrolla wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:30 pmI would recommend back testing on certain strategies. Backtesting is one of the most important aspects of developing a trading system.
If created and interpreted properly, it can help you optimise and improve your strategy, find any technical or theoretical flaws, as well as gain confidence in your strategy before applying it to the live markets.
And again you will be able to manage your risk etc.
Just my opinion. You and Peter have yours.
Good Luck
PS - In one of your earlier post you said that no one would be profitable from backing straight or laying straight… this isn’t the case for me. I have profitable backing and laying strategies.
You're hedging, Realrocknrolla is straight back/layingCardano wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:11 pmWhat don't you understand !!
I've clarified what I mean with the two attachments
Yes to both of your previous comments Goat
Straight backing/laying is gambling. Best of luck with that