Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:44 pm
efficient or not ??:
Depends on whether it's statistically significant because it's never going to be flat. And of course it's of no use going forward and just gives context to previous results. Even if it is statistically significant it won't persist because so many people see it.

The chart actually tells many stories that need to be thought about and investigated. A downward slope could just as easily mean there's simply been a run of results with winners averaging under 6

But it's akin to how a swing trader would look at the market tendency to have steamed or drifted. If it's been steamy, and they have a tendency to back first then they've had a tail wind and probably flattering results. Interpreting this sort of thing is where art meets the science and you only develop the 'feel' for the implications after a few years.

I just thought it was something you might want to add to your 'state of the markets' reporting to flesh out the bigger picture rather than it being something you had the experience to make much use of now.
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:57 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:44 pm
efficient or not ??:
Depends on whether it's statistically significant because it's never going to be flat. And of course it's of no use going forward and just gives context to previous results. Even if it is statistically significant it won't persist because so many people see it.

The chart actually tells many stories that need to be thought about and investigated. A downward slope could just as easily mean there's simply been a run of results with winners averaging under 6

But it's akin to how a swing trader would look at the market tendency to have steamed or drifted. If it's been steamy, and they have a tendency to back first then they've had a tail wind and probably flattering results. Interpreting this sort of thing is where art meets the science and you only develop the 'feel' for the implications after a few years.

I just thought it was something you might want to add to your 'state of the markets' reporting to flesh out the bigger picture rather than it being something you had the experience to make much use of now.
yep, interesting

The key question I can't answer, is, is the saying "Beating BSP" only relevant if you're betting on every market/selection...?
What's to say your skill of selection means you're selecting the selections on the positive slopes above...?
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goat68
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5 months, very interesting!
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:16 pm
The key question I can't answer, is, is the saying "Beating BSP" only relevant if you're betting on every market/selection...?
It comes down to statistical significance. Beat sp on one runner and it means nothing. Beat it on them all and it means everything, beat it on some of them and it means something.

I realise that's hopelessly vague but let's just say that in the absence of any other comparison then it's the best worse choice. It's certainly better in the short/med term than looking at your pl. You might not know that a couple of years ago there was a run of 26 (I think) losing favorites. If I'd backed them all at 5 ticks above sp then despite them all losing I'd gladly do the same again.

Value and sp and all that aside, if we were manually trading, and closing for a profit at the start (ie 'beating' sp with a prior bet) then we'd be happy doing that, and proving that beating sp makes money even if you do it on 7 horses a day instead of 700. Maybe that's worth thinking about?
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

So updated model strategy still positive, and ahead of previous model running in parallel:

New model:
Week 1 Back : 192.40
Week 1 Lay : -158.40
Week 1 TOTAL : 34.00 for 979 bets

Previous model:
Week 1 Back : -193.12
Week 1 Lay : 163.87
Week 1 TOTAL : -29.25 for 1148 bets
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ShaunWhite
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I'm a bit confused how you can separate back and lay pl unless that's gross, do you only do one or the other in each market?
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goat68
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:14 pm
I'm a bit confused how you can separate back and lay pl unless that's gross, do you only do one or the other in each market?
They're just "bets" stats, a trade is one back bet and one lay bet....
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:17 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:14 pm
I'm a bit confused how you can separate back and lay pl unless that's gross, do you only do one or the other in each market?
They're just "bets" stats, a trade is one back bet and one lay bet....
So your back total is where you open with a back then close? Lay total is lay first then close?

I was just confused about how you got separate back and lay net totals. I thought you'd somehow attributed 1/2 of your commission to each 1/2 of your pair of bets.
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goat68
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:10 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:17 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:14 pm
I'm a bit confused how you can separate back and lay pl unless that's gross, do you only do one or the other in each market?
They're just "bets" stats, a trade is one back bet and one lay bet....
So your back total is where you open with a back then close? Lay total is lay first then close?

I was just confused about how you got separate back and lay net totals. I thought you'd somehow attributed 1/2 of your commission to each 1/2 of your pair of bets.
Sorry let me explain fully.
Those are just back and lay stats showing bet net PnL before commission.

Let me give you the latest key figures in full, my analysis spits out a lot of data... the following is "pruned" !, total actuall PnL after commission in bold:
Number of markets = 145
Number of selections = 1088
Number of Backs = 532
Number of Lays = 556
Back profit = 136.13
Lay profit = -109.10
Strike Rate = 43 %
Implied Back Odds = 2.34
Implied Lay Odds = 1.75
Avg bet price = 8.00
Avg bet size = 5.01
Avg weighted odds = 5.35
Yield avg bet size = 12.90
Yield avg wghted odds = 2.08
Yield = 0.16 %
Wins = 62
Losses = 83
Av Win = 4.03
Av Loss = -2.75
Biggest Win = 12.49
Biggest Loss = -10.57
Highest Hi = 61.59
Lowest Lo = -9.83
Biggest Drawdown = -46.37
Longest win streak = 4
Longest lose streak = 10
Total profit = 21.93
Turn Over % = 0.16 %
Commission = 5.00 (22.81 %)

Offered = 2621
Matched = 1088
Matched = 41.5 %

Week 1 Back : 136.13
Week 1 Lay : -109.10
Week 1 TOTAL : 27.03 for 1088 bets
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goat68
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Here's Previous vs Latest model, looks like an improvement so far... not exactly huge amount of profit, but better is good!
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goat68
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just had email spam from Amazon.co.uk, suggesting books I might be interested in.... scary how much Amazon know!!!!
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andy28
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Location: NZ

I notice non say profitable
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

andy28 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:42 pm
I notice non say profitable
yeah good spot, better change my search terms!!
jamesg46
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goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:01 pm
just had email spam from Amazon.co.uk, suggesting books I might be interested in.... scary how much Amazon know!!!!
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Your search habits seem desperate!.
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:20 pm
...... stats showing bet net PnL before commission.
OK. Our slight misunderstanding is because of the terminology. Net pl is after commission, gross pl is before commission. I think you're using 'net' to refer to the sum of (the gross back and gross lay amounts). Net and gross work just like your payslip, if you made £100 basic and £50 in overtime you wouldn't say you'd netted £150. You'd gross £150 and net is after tax.

Stick to just looking at net (ie take home pay). Personally I never even look at gross as it's misleading because sometimes a lesser gross can actually result in a better net.

Eg if you've got a load of markets were you make £1 gross or lose 99p your gross increases but you're net losing money because the wins are actually only 98p. Take those out and gross reduces but net increases.
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