Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

just had email spam from Amazon.co.uk, suggesting books I might be interested in.... scary how much Amazon know!!!!
Screenshot 2021-11-27 at 21.00.32.png
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andy28
Posts: 375
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:06 am
Location: NZ

I notice non say profitable
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

andy28 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:42 pm
I notice non say profitable
yeah good spot, better change my search terms!!
jamesg46
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Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:01 pm
just had email spam from Amazon.co.uk, suggesting books I might be interested in.... scary how much Amazon know!!!!
Screenshot 2021-11-27 at 21.00.32.png
Your search habits seem desperate!.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:20 pm
...... stats showing bet net PnL before commission.
OK. Our slight misunderstanding is because of the terminology. Net pl is after commission, gross pl is before commission. I think you're using 'net' to refer to the sum of (the gross back and gross lay amounts). Net and gross work just like your payslip, if you made £100 basic and £50 in overtime you wouldn't say you'd netted £150. You'd gross £150 and net is after tax.

Stick to just looking at net (ie take home pay). Personally I never even look at gross as it's misleading because sometimes a lesser gross can actually result in a better net.

Eg if you've got a load of markets were you make £1 gross or lose 99p your gross increases but you're net losing money because the wins are actually only 98p. Take those out and gross reduces but net increases.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:49 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:20 pm
...... stats showing bet net PnL before commission.
OK. Our slight misunderstanding is because of the terminology. Net pl is after commission, gross pl is before commission. I think you're using 'net' to refer to the sum of (the gross back and gross lay amounts). Net and gross work just like your payslip, if you made £100 basic and £50 in overtime you wouldn't say you'd netted £150. You'd gross £150 and net is after tax.

Stick to just looking at net (ie take home pay). Personally I never even look at gross as it's misleading because sometimes a lesser gross can actually result in a better net.

Eg if you've got a load of markets were you make £1 gross or lose 99p your gross increases but you're net losing money because the wins are actually only 98p. Take those out and gross reduces but net increases.
You're making more of a point than needed of this, I know all this...
The Back and Lay stats are purely there to see, what side is winning...nothing more
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Anyway, found a slightly bug in my hedge logic... so tweaked, and reset both strategies for the new week... will see how they get on...
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:18 pm
I know all this...
The post I was refering to looked like you were comparing the total gross returns. I apologise if you already knew this was meaningless.
goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:47 pm
So updated model strategy still positive, and ahead of previous model running in parallel:

New model:
Week 1 Back : 192.40
Week 1 Lay : -158.40
Week 1 TOTAL : 34.00 for 979 bets

Previous model:
Week 1 Back : -193.12
Week 1 Lay : 163.87
Week 1 TOTAL : -29.25 for 1148 bets
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:46 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:18 pm
I know all this...
The post I was refering to looked like you were comparing the total gross returns. I apologise if you already knew this was meaningless.
goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:47 pm
So updated model strategy still positive, and ahead of previous model running in parallel:

New model:
Week 1 Back : 192.40
Week 1 Lay : -158.40
Week 1 TOTAL : 34.00 for 979 bets

Previous model:
Week 1 Back : -193.12
Week 1 Lay : 163.87
Week 1 TOTAL : -29.25 for 1148 bets
no don't apologise Shaun, my fault for posting misleading figures. I'll post the market PnL comparison graph next time, like above, that's more useful and accurate.
cheers
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

These greyhound markets are so bot driven, Doncaster delayed by an hour, but >7k traded up to original start time, hardly anything since!!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Does seem a bit ridiculous really, it's just "bot v bot", where have all the "punters" gone?
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decomez6
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Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

i think there is ' a punter' behind every punting bot, and the lock down gave them time to appreciate the power of automation.
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decomez6
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edit
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:53 am
, where have all the "punters" gone?
Gambling is predominantly a blue collar pastime and dogs especially are an old man's game (ie not online at home). That demographic are either on their arse broke or dead or stuck indoors. I'm surprised there's any money at all.

And almost everyday there's new and more interesting ways to spend your leisure money. When I used to spend my days in the bookies there was f-all else to do, these days dogs and horses look about as interesting as brass rubbing to anyone under 30.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Really don't get some of these TimeForm ratings:

Dog: SAVANA RAVEN
Comment: Rarely gets a good start.
Rating: 5 STARS !!

It lost!
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