Trading What I see !?

[Korattt]

good stuff Goaty, great consistency

[Trader724]

IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading as long as you limit what you do to a time-frame in which you try to position yourself in font of somebody else.
 
 I find it naive to believe that the real chances of a selection are influenced by how the orders flow.  Yes, the wisdom of the crowd often leads close to the right price, but this is not always the case.

 To make money with a betting strategy you need value, but in trading you just have to be among the first to do the same thing as others taking advantage of volatility.   I trade a lot and I don't care about value I just surf.

[ShaunWhite]

IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.

Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.

[LinusP]

IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.

Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.

+1 there is no opinion on it, you need value to make money, it's basic maths.

[Trader724]

IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.

Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.

I see things differently.
As long as you back and lay the same selection at sensible intervals and hedge you are not interested about value.
The correct price(real probability) does not fluctuate as the market price fluctuates before in-play because both depend on totally different variables.
When you place a bet it can be good value bad value or the right price. You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.

[Trader724]

IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.

Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.

+1 there is no opinion on it, you need value to make money, it's basic maths.

Can you please tell me, if you trade at random, how many bets are good value and how many are bad value?

[Trader724]

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.

That's exactly what I said before, but it's different from what you say above that you need to have value on both bets.
There is no confusion, from the start it is understandable that when you place two bets on the same selection at different prices most often one of the bets has less value than the other but you can make a profit even so.

[alexmr2]

IMO you do not necessarily need value to make a profit trading.

Like it or not trading is value betting. You have thousands of back bets and thousands of lay bets and the only way to make money betting is by getting value.

Bsp is a known neutral 'correct' price so if you're showing a profit at the starting price you've got a value bet. You can reduce your bet stake by having a liability reduction bet (full or partial close) at bsp and with it being neutral it won't adversely affect your value.

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.

I see things differently.
As long as you back and lay the same selection at sensible intervals and hedge you are not interested about value.
The correct price(real probability) does not fluctuate as the market price fluctuates before in-play because both depend on totally different variables.
When you place a bet it can be good value bad value or the right price. You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.

So basically traders need value positions of the next short-term move (not neccesarily to know the true odds of the runner), value bettors/professional punters need the true odds?

E.g a horse is drifting and there is more chance that it will continue for another impulse based on reading the market even if it has just gone past the true odds

[HorseDark]

Can you please tell me, if you trade at random, how many bets are good value and how many are bad value?

If you have a profitable trade, at least one of your bets will be at good value, the other could be at bad value. Speaking for myself, I don't know which one that is until SP is known.

You don't need to "calculate" value to make a profit.

[Trader724]

Can you please tell me, if you trade at random, how many bets are good value and how many are bad value?

If you have a profitable trade, at least one of your bets will be at good value, the other could be at bad value. Speaking for myself, I don't know which one that is until SP is known.

You don't need to "calculate" value to make a profit.

Exactly

[jimibt]

You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.

i see that more as luck/chance than anything tbh... altho volatility CAN get you out of sticky situations, it's far better to size up the market in advance and take positions that represent value from the off. i'm afraid in the early days, the above that you mention saw me lose more than one bank - potentially even in a single bet!

[Trader724]

You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.

i see that more as luck/chance than anything tbh... altho volatility CAN get you out of sticky situations, it's far better to size up the market in advance and take positions that represent value from the off. i'm afraid in the early days, the above that you mention saw me lose more than one bank - potentially even in a single bet!

I don't know why I can't make myself understood.
A trading strategy takes advantage of price fluctuations regardless of value, while a betting strategy needs value for profit.
It is true that when you trade there are still bets but the fact that they are opposite removes the dependence on the selection result.
If the success of the trade does not depend on whether your selection wins or not, you are no longer interested in the value

[jimibt]

You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.

i see that more as luck/chance than anything tbh... altho volatility CAN get you out of sticky situations, it's far better to size up the market in advance and take positions that represent value from the off. i'm afraid in the early days, the above that you mention saw me lose more than one bank - potentially even in a single bet!

I don't know why I can't make myself understood.
A trading strategy takes advantage of price fluctuations regardless of value, while a betting strategy needs value for profit.
It is true that when you trade there are still bets but the fact that they are opposite removes the dependence on the selection result.
If the success of the trade does not depend on whether your selection wins or not, you are no longer interested in the value

yup, like yourself, have been doing this a while. all i'm saying is that you (or should i say I) cannot depend on random fluctuations to guide my strategies. and yes, win or lose it's not about that; agreed - but entry and exit informs us (even if laterally) as to whether we've tuned into value in the trade or straight bet.

[ShaunWhite]

You can obviously make money 'swing trading' without realising one or both bets are value but that lack of understanding comes from two bets being called a 'trade' instead of two bets being called two bets.

That's exactly what I said before, but it's different from what you say above that you need to have value on both bets.
There is no confusion, from the start it is understandable that when you place two bets on the same selection at different prices one of the bets has less value than the other but you can make a profit even so.

I said "one or both" bets. And them being on the same selection isn't relevant because you can group all your day's bets anyway you want and they still have the same bottom line.

[jamesg46]

You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.

i see that more as luck/chance than anything tbh... altho volatility CAN get you out of sticky situations, it's far better to size up the market in advance and take positions that represent value from the off. i'm afraid in the early days, the above that you mention saw me lose more than one bank - potentially even in a single bet!

I don't know why I can't make myself understood.
A trading strategy takes advantage of price fluctuations regardless of value, while a betting strategy needs value for profit.
It is true that when you trade there are still bets but the fact that they are opposite removes the dependence on the selection result.
If the success of the trade does not depend on whether your selection wins or not, you are no longer interested in the value

The confusion comes from what exactly is "value"! Is it taking a price that's better than SP? Yeah. Is it taking a trade that offers the potential for more upside than downside? Yeah. The perception of value doesn't have to come from what we believe a price should be, it can be personal strategy value too.... either way, you will only make money long term by taking value & be it you say you ignore value, you probably don't, you probably call it something else, like risk to reward.