Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Euler
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Sounds like you are turning a corner.
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beermonsterman
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I've worn that T shirt more than once
Goat heading to the bust bank lobby sorry to say
take it easy Goat them numbers spell disaster my friend lower stakes to save the heart ache
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goat68
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Another rough ride of a day! 9 wins & 5 losses, again those losses wipsaw'd me to larger losses than I should have, net +£4 for the day! seems a lot of work for £4 ! I need to get out of losing trades earlier, but some of my wins are when it goes against me then comes right back, so it's hard to know when to cut it, until it suddenly drops -£20 in the bat of an eyelid!! I guess my entries need to be better, but not sure how!
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 8:11 pm
Another rough ride of a day! 9 wins & 5 losses, again those losses wipsaw'd me to larger losses than I should have, net +£4 for the day! seems a lot of work for £4 ! I need to get out of losing trades earlier, but some of my wins are when it goes against me then comes right back, so it's hard to know when to cut it, until it suddenly drops -£20 in the bat of an eyelid!! I guess my entries need to be better, but not sure how!
If you're seeing some that "suddenly drops -£20 in the bat of an eyelid" then they should be balanced by those that do the opposite unless you're good at picking just those (which would be a good thing). From your posts you seem a bit fixated on strike rate, counting winners vs losers. That's likely to be making you snatch at small profits to clock up a win, but perhaps your losers are even the right size but your wins are too small? There's a human tendancy to dwell on the loses rather than to analyse the wins and that's fed by this 'eliminate the losers' ethos, when infact maximising the wins is equally important. Rather than strike rate, simply measure avg win & avg loss, it really doesn't matter if your strike rate is 10% or 90% (to a degreee).

And the same with £4.....measure your performace another way, maybe % of avg stake or % of turnover or something, using a cash amount is likely to make you target cash amounts on the ladder. I don't know what you're staking but if you've managed even 4% on the total of all your back stakes it's been a decent days work. Scaling isn't linear but when you start putting a grand through each market that 4% return on stakes would be a very comfortable living.
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Euler
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goat68 wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 8:11 pm
Another rough ride of a day! 9 wins & 5 losses, again those losses wipsaw'd me to larger losses than I should have, net +£4 for the day! seems a lot of work for £4 ! I need to get out of losing trades earlier, but some of my wins are when it goes against me then comes right back, so it's hard to know when to cut it, until it suddenly drops -£20 in the bat of an eyelid!! I guess my entries need to be better, but not sure how!
Lots of heavy backing around today, that was the theme of the day. Well, some of that was triggered by laying on a specific runner, but you have to be looking for something the laying was quite heavy so it was sending lots of prices in. Hope that makes sense?!?
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goat68
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A good day, made a couple of adjustments to strategy.
8 Wins, 2 Losses : Net = +£48.50
Avg Win = +£9.30
Avg Loss = -£12.94

I'm convinced if I keep applying all the "tips" PW suggests in his Videos I will be heading in the right direction... :)
Trader Pat
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goat68 wrote:
Sun Aug 16, 2020 6:05 pm
A good day, made a couple of adjustments to strategy.
8 Wins, 2 Losses : Net = +£48.50
Avg Win = +£9.30
Avg Loss = -£12.94

I'm convinced if I keep applying all the "tips" PW suggests in his Videos I will be heading in the right direction... :)
You should consider recording your trades and viewing them back. Its amazing all the signals you miss when in the middle of a trade.
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Trader Pat wrote:
Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:17 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sun Aug 16, 2020 6:05 pm
A good day, made a couple of adjustments to strategy.
8 Wins, 2 Losses : Net = +£48.50
Avg Win = +£9.30
Avg Loss = -£12.94

I'm convinced if I keep applying all the "tips" PW suggests in his Videos I will be heading in the right direction... :)
You should consider recording your trades and viewing them back. Its amazing all the signals you miss when in the middle of a trade.
Will do, thanks for the tip Pat
jamesg46
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https://youtu.be/AApxtkGaeWc

Random post but I feel it's relative.
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Kai
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goat68 wrote:
Sun Aug 16, 2020 6:05 pm
I'm convinced if I keep applying all the "tips" PW suggests in his Videos I will be heading in the right direction... :)
Easier said than done! If you could apply only a handful of those tips it should be relatively smooth sailing. :)

Btw speaking of concrete tips, I can try and throw one of mine if it helps. If you're using this thread as a daily trading diary of sorts I would maybe suggest a very simple process of finding and highlighting your biggest mistake for that day and then trying not to repeat it the next day, and so on, simply getting in the habit of finding just one mistake per day can do wonders for your trading after a few weeks. The idea here is obviously to start working from the biggest mistakes and work your way down, if you cut those out then it's much easier to progress, and if you don't know where to find them just have a look at your biggest losses.

Ideally I'd suggest to do the same with the patterns, if you try your hardest to identify one "pattern" per day, and then try to confirm it the next one if possible and so on, that is infinitely more complex but not a bad habit either.

The above process more or less is how I work in general, if you do it right then in a couple of weeks time your trading approach and performance will be light-years ahead of your old one! Like Pat suggested above, imho you can get a lot more out of carefully analyzing one day's worth of trading than mindlessly trading for several months without any analysis in your work.

But those are good results for such an early stage, you can progress fast with decent stake sizes since baby stakes just delay facing the inevitable. Best of luck.
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goat68
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Kai wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:02 am
goat68 wrote:
Sun Aug 16, 2020 6:05 pm
I'm convinced if I keep applying all the "tips" PW suggests in his Videos I will be heading in the right direction... :)
Easier said than done! If you could apply only a handful of those tips it should be relatively smooth sailing. :)

Btw speaking of concrete tips, I can try and throw one of mine if it helps. If you're using this thread as a daily trading diary of sorts I would maybe suggest a very simple process of finding and highlighting your biggest mistake for that day and then trying not to repeat it the next day, and so on, simply getting in the habit of finding just one mistake per day can do wonders for your trading after a few weeks. The idea here is obviously to start working from the biggest mistakes and work your way down, if you cut those out then it's much easier to progress, and if you don't know where to find them just have a look at your biggest losses.

Ideally I'd suggest to do the same with the patterns, if you try your hardest to identify one "pattern" per day, and then try to confirm it the next one if possible and so on, that is infinitely more complex but not a bad habit either.

The above process more or less is how I work in general, if you do it right then in a couple of weeks time your trading approach and performance will be light-years ahead of your old one! Like Pat suggested above, imho you can get a lot more out of carefully analyzing one day's worth of trading than mindlessly trading for several months without any analysis in your work.

But those are good results for such an early stage, you can progress fast with decent stake sizes since baby stakes just delay facing the inevitable. Best of luck.
Thanks Kai,
A good point, and very appropriate for today!
Not a good day, some big losers again...
I'm not convinced by an auto stop loss, but my manual exit is aweful!!
So reviewing one trade today went something like this:
1. Got signal on entry placed trade and entered exit orders
2. Started as I thought, and other runners confirmed
3. Turned sharply against, and was up against my mental stop exit -£20, but I didn't want to jump out as market could be fooling and other runners were still roughly inline
4. Ticked out suddenly to -£38... Damn it! What's it doing look at other runners, one has come in against what I predict, go back to exit, -£56 !!

Need to have a long think about that.......

Agree what you say about bet size
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Another issue I see us my wins being too small maybe, I'm conservatively taking a chunk out of the predicted price movement, but for my bug losses I'm ending sometimes quite a bit bigger...
Not sure about letting the winners run...? Or just bigger targets?
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:32 pm
my mental stop exit -£20
Your mental stop (loss or profit) needs to be a market led decision, maybe at a key price or when something happens in the market, not a cash amount.

"-£20" isn't telling you whether you should exit, hold or even add to your position. The PL column and especially that part where it turns from red to green is the least important piece of information on the ladder, in fact it's detremental unless you can treat it purely as interesting, but then disregard it when it comes to making a trading decision. Those should always be about what the market says rather than what your personal pain threshold happens to be. Same with your wins, don't snatch for quick ones to add to your strike rate or try and push them to target values or round numbers.

To see how much you're relying on the PL column (which the market doesn't give a damn about) try switching off the PL column and choose your min stake preset. Now just back or lay when you think the market says you should, and when you're done, hedge up, see how you did. That should also help break the mental block around 'opening' and 'closing' because you might end up backing or laying more than once in a row before finally squaring up any remaining position.
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ShaunWhite
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"1. Got signal on entry placed trade and entered exit orders
2. Started as I thought, and other runners confirmed
3. Turned sharply against, and was up against my mental stop exit -£20, but I didn't want to jump out as market could be fooling and other runners were still roughly inline"

1. You followed your plan. Good.
2. You followed your plan. Good.
3. You started to make stuff up on the fly.

Your initial bet was a carefully thought out one based on what the market was saying and a profitable exit was planned too. But when it didn't go to plan, and a large percentage won't, for your closing bet you decided there was a better way than planning and did it based on a phychological reaction to "£20" and guesswork about 'fooling' and coulda woulda shoulda.

It's perfectly normal thing for new people to do, it's all well and good before hand but in the heat of battle it all goes to pieces. I think you should reduce your stakes, the size of your positions is affecting you. They'll grow again soon enough if you're any good and it will happen in such a way that they won't be freaking you out so much.
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wearthefoxhat
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jamesg46 wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:48 am
https://youtu.be/AApxtkGaeWc

Random post but I feel it's relative.
Good one.

Puts a few things in to some perspective. (my opinion of course)

"Monkey says to fish, let me save you from drowning." as he safely puts the fish up a tree. :lol:
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