Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

s’funny.. ‘cos that’s pretty much my angle these days, however it does depend on how I feel when I sit at my desk but generally my way of thinking is that why should I sit here for up to 4 to 5 hours when I’m CONFIDENT in participating in only a few markets, (maybe only one in a day), where I feel there may be money to be made,

.. to be fair goaty, for me I think you WILL make it but alas I think you may have to go through some toil, (like I have done) with time to get there, if I can make a suggestion, some advice it would be to use micro small stakes, (i.e. £2 stakes) to LEARN an edge

Thanks. I spent today just staring at markets for 2-3hours!! Must have been about 15markets. I was just looking for a Steamer, never saw one... depressing! Not sure I could spend a week and about 15hours looking for a Steamer and maybe finding 2 or 3 it would seem at a guess!?
That does my head in thinking about it!

Goat....when you say "looking for a steamer".....how many ticks are you looking for to classify a "steamer" as a "steamer"....5, 10, 15 etc???

Watching Peter's videos it's not that precise, it's a view of looking at price movement, volume, price action, eg.pull backs being sharply bought...
That's my take anyway....

[Tetras]

It could mean this in some markets, but I meant the simplified way of looking at the odds. For example: a horse moving from "very likely to win" to "pretty likely".

For a horse to move between categories is, from a punting perspective, often pretty significant and the kind of stuff that pops up on TV. At the lower-end it takes a lot of money, if nothing else.

are you sure other people are thinking in these categories or that it has any influence on price movement?
all that makes a price move is money and at the lower end less is needed for a price move
how is it significant from a punting perspective what category a horse moved to, the whole point of punting is pricing up yourselves and looking for where the market disagrees

I didn't mean I base all my trades on them, I was just sharing with goat how I 'zoom out' from the individual ladders, to see what's happening more broadly. For experienced traders it's probably so obvious they don't need to think about it, for example: I would treat a race with two horses in the "very likely to win category" the exact same way as any other race, then get destroyed when I tried to scalp it (p.s. I'm aware it can be scalped, but not usually by someone new).

[goat68]

My major problem is I'm not confident of any market, so I've got nothing to be patient to wait for as they are all equally likely be be profitable...
If that makes any sense!

[Morbius]

My major problem is I'm not confident of any market, so I've got nothing to be patient to wait for as they are all equally likely be be profitable...
If that makes any sense!

Goat....we have had this conversation before

If you don't have confidence then that means you don't have a demonstrable working system and if you don't have that then that means you don't have the correct knowledge. Just how much theoretical studying have you done??? and be honest

[ruthlessimon]

Try and think further down the road, when you find 2-3 now you might only make a few quid and it doesn't feel worth while but once you can identify the opportunity with a degree of confidence and can up your stakes picking up £50-£200 a race is easily achievable

Listen to what Dallas is saying here, great advice

When Dallas speaks we all need to listen

[Emmson]

Yes indeed ^^^

I made a note of this from Dallas a while ago. I have been a dedicated scavenger on this site in the past. Indeed I spent several months a few years ago reading virtually every single post. Now would the newbies who come on here and want instant success be prepared to read every post on this forum?

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=12429

I dont do much scalping myself but when i do my general guide is.

*Dont go race to race trying to scalp everyone the sameway instead be selective and look for the race types and times that best suit this method.
*Avoid all Maidens, Novices 2yo races etc
*Avoid races with short priced fav's
*Look for a competitive h'cap or the better quality races which have the front few in the betting priced similarly (ie 4.0 - 7.0)
*Target runners trading in a tight range and ignore anything thats been trending in a direction (unless directional scalping) or has a betfair chart that looks like a heart rate monitor - or you may end up needing one!.
*Wait till the market is turning over at a decent rate somewhere around a £200 per second average increase, the quicker you can be in and out or in and scratch the better.
*Pay close attension to the previous race going in-play and especially to when it finishes - at these times there will be a influx of money as people start to take poisitions and this can change everything - even runners that have been rock solid all day could move several ticks at this time and never come back so best just holding back around these periods till things settle again.
* Use the Risk Meter on the Bet Angel over view screen this will give a clear indication to the overall activity - the lower the better when scalping.

and when your not doing that keep reading this forum, the BA blog and watch more video's.

[goat68]

So just watched the Newc 19:45 Hcap, all top 5 runners prices were flat til 2mins and then they basically just did a little dance...
Definitely a no trade, I can't see how technically you could make a trading decision on a complete set of flat prices...?

[goat68]

Take that back, I guess it was ideal scalp territory for 1 tick

[Jukebox]

So just watched the Newc 19:45 Hcap, all top 5 runners prices were flat til 2mins and then they basically just did a little dance...
Definitely a no trade, I can't see how technically you could make a trading decision on a complete set of flat prices...?

Glad to see you've made some progress at least. You have now identified a "Definitely a no trade" set up for your strategy.

[goat68]

Did some baby stake trades today, did well on Hcaps (100%SR), not so good on NovHcaps and NHF they seem too unpredictable for me.
I'm going to keep to Hcaps and try and get good at those.

[Tetras]

Did you catch the steamer on the 15:40 at Hexham (Bushypark)? Haven't seen one like that in awhile.

[goat68]

Did you catch the steamer on the 15:40 at Hexham (Bushypark)? Haven't seen one like that in awhile.

Didn't trade that market unfortunately

[goat68]

I'm sure one of the main reasons this is so hard is because you have so many novice traders who are basically trading at random, which creates a very random market!

[Wingnut]

I'm sure one of the main reasons this is so hard is because you have so many novice traders who are basically trading at random, which creates a very random market!

I’m not sure that’s the case. Novice traders will be using smaller stakes so shouldn’t influence the market. So the general direction will be where the “big money” goes. I’m pretty shit at explaining things but hope you get the jist.

[goat68]

I'm sure one of the main reasons this is so hard is because you have so many novice traders who are basically trading at random, which creates a very random market!

I’m not sure that’s the case. Novice traders will be using smaller stakes so shouldn’t influence the market. So the general direction will be where the “big money” goes. I’m pretty shit at explaining things but hope you get the jist.

Why is the price action so random then?