Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Lets play spot the "edge" if you can ?!
Hist.jpg
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

bot survived a broadband outage today, luckily not in-trade at the time
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

So complete dataset (1400 markets/6weeks) backtest for current bot, the current week is pulling back into a drawdown, hoping for a rebound! but Rsquared is good:
Screenshot 2021-04-16 at 21.03.41.png
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Drawdown continues... negative week:
Screenshot 2021-04-18 at 21.01.10.png
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:02 pm
Drawdown continues... negative week:
Screenshot 2021-04-18 at 21.01.10.png
Seen a negative week myself on some bots. But only for the week. The month was strong. The only way is up.... baby!

Love a bit of Yazz!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Don't rely on Green All Selections rule, ****ing useless! There goes 3 weeks of profit! -£18
Not even 5 GreenUp attempts 5seconds apart handled this one:
19/04/2021 16:45:55: [G_Auto 1] : £ 9.00 Lay bet placed on Hydroplane at 3. Entirely unmatched when it initially reached the market. Ref: 230665785100 ( Fill or kill bet with 55 seconds delay. )
19/04/2021 16:46:21: [G_Auto 1] : £ 9 of unmatched bet (Ref:230665785100) was filled before remainder was killed.
19/04/2021 16:49:45: [G_Auto 1] : Greened up Hydroplane by Backing 9.12 at 2.96
19/04/2021 16:49:50: [G_Auto 1] : Automation Signal for market: volatility = 2
19/04/2021 16:49:50: [G_Auto 1] : Cancelling bets 230666090951
19/04/2021 16:49:50: [G_Auto 1] : Greened up Hydroplane by Backing 9.12 at 2.96
19/04/2021 16:49:55: [G_Auto 1] : Cancelling bets 230666096223
19/04/2021 16:49:55: [G_Auto 1] : Greened up Hydroplane by Backing 9.25 at 2.92
19/04/2021 16:50:00: [G_Auto 1] : Greened up Hydroplane by Backing 9.25 at 2.92
19/04/2021 16:50:00: [G_Auto 1] : Cancelling bets 230666101659
19/04/2021 16:50:05: [G_Auto 1] : Cancelling bets 230666106953
19/04/2021 16:50:05: [G_Auto 1] : Greened up Hydroplane by Backing 9.44 at 2.86
19/04/2021 16:50:53: Guardian has detected that the market is in-play
19/04/2021 16:50:53: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Are you being a bit greedy with your close? Prerace you'll never have a problem hedging if you'll accept a less than optimal price. Maybe use a speculative hedge a few times but when the clock has run out then just get whatever you can.

Take heart though, prices aren't far off true so when there's a glitch you win some you lose some, that's automation for you. Next time it could be an API outage that snookers you. Operational risk is just part of the slippage you get when you go from test to live.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:09 pm
Are you being a bit greedy with your close? Prerace you'll never have a problem hedging if you'll accept a less than optimal price. Maybe use a speculative hedge a few times but when the clock has run out then just get whatever you can.

Take heart though, prices aren't far off true so when there's a glitch you win some you lose some, that's automation for you. Next time it could be an API outage that snookers you. Operational risk is just part of the slippage you get when you go from test to live.
Im just using what Guardian Green All Selections provides, with Best Market Price , ie.rule is not much use to be honest.., users beware...
Im going to re-code using my own logic.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Ive been thinking of recoding it with my own logic, this has just expedited me to do it this evening!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

New hedge logic coded, ready for live testing today :-)
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Sometimes the market just works differently, bot has lost 7 out of 8 today so far...

Also from looking at logs i think there maybe a bug in Guardian GreenAllSelections logic, i don't think it uses the very latest liability/matched bet info..
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

bot heard me, it's just had a mammoth win, good on her!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Here you go who can explain this ? looks like at least one error occured, ended up with 0.24 & 0.25 Lay bets at odds of 4.4, not sure I understand how that could have happened? only one Lay was placed at 4.4.

22/04/2021 15:49:50: [G_Auto 1] : Greened up Qawamees by Laying 0.25 at 4.3
22/04/2021 15:49:55: [G_Auto 1] : Cancelling bets 230973621239
22/04/2021 15:49:55: [G_Auto 1] : Greened up Qawamees by Laying 0.25 at 4.4
22/04/2021 15:50:00: [G_Auto 1] : An error occurred while cancelling bets: The entire order has been rejected.
22/04/2021 15:50:00: [G_Auto 1] : Cancelling bets 230973627131
22/04/2021 15:50:00: [G_Auto 1] : Greened up Qawamees by Laying 0.24 at 4.5
22/04/2021 15:50:54: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
22/04/2021 15:50:56: Guardian has detected that the market is in-play
22/04/2021 15:50:56: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
22/04/2021 15:53:08: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

22/04/2021 15:50:00: [G_Auto 1] : Cancelling bets 230973627131
22/04/2021 15:50:00: [G_Auto 1] : Greened up Qawamees by Laying 0.24 at 4.5

So Lay bets 230973627131 and 230973634251 actually matched, so I think the "Cancelling bets 230973627131" failed because it had matched, but guardian still placed the last 0.24 at 4.5 which is the last Greened up in the log:
Betfair Bet ID 1:230973634251 | Placed: 22-Apr-21 15:50:00
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Surely after the error of the cancel of 131 Guardian should verify the matched bet status before deciding to place the greenup order? The error indicates the previous bet might have matched which it had meaning the market was all green, by then placing the extra lay it was then not green when that matched...
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