Trading What I see !?

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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

I follow Pete's videos to the letter, trying to trade order flow momentum, that I SEE. I see "backing", so I jump in, it then consistently goes the other way..... I feel I should trade the opposite of what I see!?
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to75ne
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"I feel I should trade the opposite of what I see!?"

if your trading what you see, should you not be ignoring what you feel? if the price as moved against you too far, should you not cut out? if that is what you see.
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Euler
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You felt the market was going to go lower so you let that dictate how you traded. The market pushed you into making that trade. You have to detach yourself from that emotion.
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Euler wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:03 pm
You felt the market was going to go lower so you let that dictate how you traded. The market pushed you into making that trade. You have to detach yourself from that emotion.
no, I SAW that the market was going lower, so I traded that momentum, it wasn't "feel". However, it seems I am always late on the momentum, and it turns by the time I get in!

All 7 trades i've done this afternoon have been a loser!
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

to75ne wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:53 pm
"I feel I should trade the opposite of what I see!?"

if your trading what you see, should you not be ignoring what you feel? if the price as moved against you too far, should you not cut out? if that is what you see.
I am ignoring what I feel... I'm just saying that just trading what I see seems a losing strategy for me at the moment!!
I'm obviously not seeing it correctly!!
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Tuco
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All 7 trades i've done this afternoon have been a loser!
...don't forget that for every pound won by someone, a pound is also lost by another!
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Tuco
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The market pushed you into making that trade. You have to detach yourself from that emotion.
...absolutely correct!
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Tuco wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:49 pm
The market pushed you into making that trade. You have to detach yourself from that emotion.
...absolutely correct!
So you're saying don't trade what I see the market is telling me, as it's fooling me? In which case i've missinterpreted what both Pete and Caan have said about trading only what you see.....?
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goat68
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So then does that mean when Pete says in his Order Flow explanation video, "start by looking for favourites being backed", he actually means when you find a fav being backed, you should "lay" it?!
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Euler
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goat68 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:56 pm
Euler wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:03 pm
You felt the market was going to go lower so you let that dictate how you traded. The market pushed you into making that trade. You have to detach yourself from that emotion.
no, I SAW that the market was going lower, so I traded that momentum, it wasn't "feel". However, it seems I am always late on the momentum, and it turns by the time I get in!

All 7 trades i've done this afternoon have been a loser!
You felt the market was headed lower. So you jumped on it.

When trading you have a setup and adhere to that. You look for the set-up and execute against that, rather than following the market.

The fact you lost all seven in a row is evidence that the market is telling you what to do and you are feeling guided by it.

If you trade at random with no emotion, your strike rate will hover around 50%. So seven losses in a row is a 0.50^7 or a 128 to one chance.

The market forced your hand and you were trading what you felt and that feeling was given to you by the market.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Euler wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:48 pm
goat68 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:56 pm
Euler wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:03 pm
You felt the market was going to go lower so you let that dictate how you traded. The market pushed you into making that trade. You have to detach yourself from that emotion.
no, I SAW that the market was going lower, so I traded that momentum, it wasn't "feel". However, it seems I am always late on the momentum, and it turns by the time I get in!

All 7 trades i've done this afternoon have been a loser!
You felt the market was headed lower. So you jumped on it.

When trading you have a setup and adhere to that. You look for the set-up and execute against that, rather than following the market.

The fact you lost all seven in a row is evidence that the market is telling you what to do and you are feeling guided by it.

If you trade at random with no emotion, your strike rate will hover around 50%. So seven losses in a row is a 0.50^7 or a 128 to one chance.

The market forced your hand and you were trading what you felt and that feeling was given to you by the market.
Thank you Euler, that's a really good explanation, you make a good point about my 7 losses in a row!
It also shows how missleading these videos are, or rather how you interpret them...
My "setup" I was using was as follows:
1. Check price/volume of top 4, look at supp/res, trends, and get a rough gauge, (like Pete does, I think) "this horse looks like it's drifting".
2. Then looking at ladder watch for order flow best I can, that supports my "gauge of momentum" in 1
3. When flow supports then enter trade, and place exit orders

I thought the whole theory here is that in that last 5mins or so before off, the on course or average Joe punters are driving the volume, so "more often than not" the order flow you perceive might continue more often than it doesn't...?

However, your great explanation is probably indicating I haven't got a clue!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

I'm feeling confused "feeling given to me by the market", which is "trading what the market is telling me", ie.trading what you see (in the market)?
So when both PeteW and CaanB say only "trade what you see", what do they mean?????
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Euler
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Judging by his most recent output I think Caan means click here to unlock the secret of eternal passive second income generation through betting. :lol:

But seriously...

Your role as a trader is to anticipate price action, not follow it. Does the set up you have to allow you to get in at a point where the market will move in your favour? Does the market confirm your setup? If you are just following the market you will get beaten up by it. Especially as a newbie.

Watch this video: -

https://youtu.be/wLaSp5a-LqU
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Tuco
Posts: 727
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There are many ways to trade Mr. GOAT.

If your 7 losses in a row have meant you've lost 7 x £2 = £14, but on your 8th you win £1,000, then you really are the GOAT.

But that is also the point: Everyone loses and it doesn't necessarily mean you've done anything wrong nor mis-read the market. It all depends upon your trading style. Win big, lose small should always be the aim of the GOAT.

Stick at it. Good luck Sir!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Tuco wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:10 pm
There are many ways to trade Mr. GOAT.

If your 7 losses in a row have meant you've lost 7 x £2 = £14, but on your 8th you win £1,000, then you really are the GOAT.

But that is also the point: Everyone loses and it doesn't necessarily mean you've done anything wrong nor mis-read the market. It all depends upon your trading style. Win big, lose small should always be the aim of the GOAT.

Stick at it. Good luck Sir!
Thank you appreciate it
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