Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

I prefer to cut my orange peel off with a sharp knife, cuts the pithe off and I don't get my fingers all orange stained and messy. IT'S THE ONLY WAY, DON'T TELL ME OTHERWISE!
marko236
Posts: 737
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:54 am

goat68 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:08 pm
I prefer to cut my orange peel off with a sharp knife, cuts the pithe off and I don't get my fingers all orange stained and messy. IT'S THE ONLY WAY, DON'T TELL ME OTHERWISE!
I remember when i was a kid i would peel an Orange with my teeth :lol:
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wearthefoxhat
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marko236 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:17 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:08 pm
I prefer to cut my orange peel off with a sharp knife, cuts the pithe off and I don't get my fingers all orange stained and messy. IT'S THE ONLY WAY, DON'T TELL ME OTHERWISE!
I remember when i was a kid i would peel an Orange with my teeth :lol:
Peeling a satsuma is always satisfying, comes off in one go, and then consume whole. How do like them apples?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

The things that come to mind to me at the moment:
- You can't be successful at sport trading part-time, doing it in your spare time
- You need years of experience to understand the dynamics of markets to then become profitable
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
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goat68 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:00 am
The things that come to mind to me at the moment:
- You can't be successful at sport trading part-time, doing it in your spare time
- You need years of experience to understand the dynamics of markets to then become profitable
You also need to know thyself.

Probably telling you how to suck lemons, but it's often overlooked.

This would cover not only how to handle/embrace a loss/losing run, but also how to enjoy the process/journey along the way and celebrate the successes.

The most important lesson I learned was; "Don't sweat the small stuff." Essentially, it meant for me, was to look at the bigger picture and not chop and change too many things along the way. Also, I never stop learning new stuff to assist the process and keep myself up todate.

Also, not to compare myself and my results against others apparent success, be my own person.
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decomez6
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goat68 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:00 am
The things that come to mind to me at the moment:
- You can't be successful at sport trading part-time, doing it in your spare time
- You need years of experience to understand the dynamics of markets to then become profitable
Family bread winners ,
Family emergency support centre,
Family planner,...list go on
Work , work , ... some times shift .
Marital responsibilities.. extended / in-laws .
Then comes trading ... which requires full attention .you need a good night sleep , exercise and a balanced diet ,otherwise a foggy / jumpy mind ,will hinder your decision making process.
I think we all want to shorten the learning curve, but I personally made a mistake ,jumping the gun and
Went full mode automation before I could fully manually trade .
I think automation is better informed when one has gone through the heavy acrobatics of the trading ladder .
It must be in your muscle memory, ready to execute in your sleep , then you have a good chance to break even and potentially tilt the balance.
If that doesn’t help , then a degree in data science /statistics will be your only way out .
Well rounded experienced number crunchers do well in many fields and I believe this is one such a field .
I can fully relate to the feeling of a mug, handing their hard earned living to the mugger side.but I must say ,you are in a much better position than a majority of us , you are the goat! survive on very little and are more creative than expected . :)
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:00 am
The things that come to mind to me at the moment:
- You can't be successful at sport trading part-time, doing it in your spare time
- You need years of experience to understand the dynamics of markets to then become profitable

Can't agree with that. Part time will obviously make it take longer but "market dynamics" isn't especially hard to understand, it's just the aincient game of supply and demand.. Not a 2 min job to understand but it doesn't need full time effort to do it.

And if not part time first then how would anyone go full time? People don't give up their job to have a go, they transition when their part time income exceeds their full-time one. What you describe as not possible is the usual route for most people.
Last edited by ShaunWhite on Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ShaunWhite
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People don't just fail because trading is too complicated, they often fail because they've made it more complicated than it is. Trying to emulate Peter or Liam ain't a great place to start.
Trader Pat
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Just to echo Shaun's point there are plenty of part time traders earning a decent second income from trading.

I haven't posted to the thread in a while but OP seems to be still guilty of overthinking and overanalysing everything. I said at the beginning if you have only an hour to spend a day on trading then spend it manually trading on the ladder rather then wading through data. The problem with back-testing is if you don't have a good understanding of the markets then how do you know what to look for? Some of my better automation came about by accident, usually manually trading one day and noticing something that may or may not be worth spending time on but that's where you can test it and see if its worthwhile.

The problem with looking for patterns in large amounts of data is you'll always find them, but that's doesn't mean they'll make you any money, that's where the understanding comes in.
marko236
Posts: 737
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:54 am

goat68 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:00 am
The things that come to mind to me at the moment:
- You can't be successful at sport trading part-time, doing it in your spare time
- You need years of experience to understand the dynamics of markets to then become profitable
I remember watching an Arnold schwarzenegger video on youtube two quotes from it are.

1. If you spent an hour a day learning to play a musical instrumenet, how good would you be after a year.
2. If you spent an hour a day learning a new language, how good would you be after a year.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Trader Pat wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:22 pm
Just to echo Shaun's point there are plenty of part time traders earning a decent second income from trading.

I haven't posted to the thread in a while but OP seems to be still guilty of overthinking and overanalysing everything. I said at the beginning if you have only an hour to spend a day on trading then spend it manually trading on the ladder rather then wading through data. The problem with back-testing is if you don't have a good understanding of the markets then how do you know what to look for? Some of my better automation came about by accident, usually manually trading one day and noticing something that may or may not be worth spending time on but that's where you can test it and see if its worthwhile.

The problem with looking for patterns in large amounts of data is you'll always find them, but that's doesn't mean they'll make you any money, that's where the understanding comes in.
So keep it simple?
Can you say be profitable with a WoM indicator and a handful of BA rule lines? That's simple, just need to work out the application....
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

goat68 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 5:24 pm
So keep it simple?
Can you say be profitable with a WoM indicator and a handful of BA rule lines? That's simple, just need to work out the application....

Yeah the simpler the better, If you find one idea that works then you can build around that. But its been said many times you have to match the bot to the market.

Also if you're testing say 10 bots they shouldn't all be losers. You should have 1 or 2 losers, maybe 1 profitable one if you're lucky then a bunch that are roughly break even but you need to allow enough time and markets to rule out natural variance. It's much easier to turn a break even bot into a profitable one by adjusting a couple of parameters than it is to build one from scratch.

I'm enjoying the thread though.. I'll give you 10/10 for your perseverance and attitude.
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ShaunWhite
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Trader724 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:20 pm
Things are pretty simple. You can get trading value whether the price is betting value or not but it seems like not everyone knows that.
One question.
So you trade your way to a free bet (or 8 free bets if you hedge)

When is a free bet NOT a value bet?

And besides, all "trades" are just a series of straight back and lay bets that all run and all settle separately according to my Betfair PL, so I don't even know why this is debatable. How do you make money straight betting?
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Trader724
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Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:35 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:20 pm
Things are pretty simple. You can get trading value whether the price is betting value or not but it seems like not everyone knows that.
One question.
So you trade your way to a free bet (or 8 free bets if you hedge)

When is a free bet NOT a value bet?

If you make a profit from trading and you don't lock it in so that it doesn't matter who wins the event, you don't have a free bet, you are gambling the profit you just made by trading.
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:35 pm
And besides, all "trades" are just a series of straight back and lay bets that all run and all settle separately according to my Betfair PL, so I don't even know why this is debatable. How do you make money straight betting?

Trading profit results from price movements while betting profit depends on who wins the event. For this reason trading and betting cannot be considered as the same thing.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Trader724 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 1:24 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:35 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:20 pm
Things are pretty simple. You can get trading value whether the price is betting value or not but it seems like not everyone knows that.
One question.
So you trade your way to a free bet (or 8 free bets if you hedge)

When is a free bet NOT a value bet?

If you make a profit from trading and you don't lock it in so that it doesn't matter who wins the event, you don't have a free bet, you are gambling the profit you just made by trading.
And in trading it's known as a "free bet" but we all know the reality is that it's unrealised profit left to run at SP. And hedging is 'gambling' unrealised profit on all of them....remember how hedging worked pre-exchanges? You better warn Dallas he's got his terminology wrong. viewtopic.php?f=53&t=11388.
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