Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

vhdgkl wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 8:02 pm
The hardest thing of all is to be focused.

If you are not focused you will lose..everything is built to make you lose..there are few moments when the pressure of money on more horses can be exploited..most of the time it is noise..if you put money on noise, they will turn the price against you immediately.
You can only put money when a horse's market is not manipulable ..find those points there.

Sitting and waiting, even for hours...very difficult.
bit negative?
im sure there are hundreds of ways to be consistently profitable on the horses, everyone has tunnel vision starting out, im sure other guys have completely different approaches to me and its working for them
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 6:00 pm
A profitable week :D :D
Races: 61
Strike Rate: 50%
Net: +£4.55
PnLChart.jpg
👍
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

rik wrote:
Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:01 am
vhdgkl wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 8:02 pm
The hardest thing of all is to be focused.

If you are not focused you will lose..everything is built to make you lose..there are few moments when the pressure of money on more horses can be exploited..most of the time it is noise..if you put money on noise, they will turn the price against you immediately.
You can only put money when a horse's market is not manipulable ..find those points there.

Sitting and waiting, even for hours...very difficult.
bit negative?
im sure there are hundreds of ways to be consistently profitable on the horses, everyone has tunnel vision starting out, im sure other guys have completely different approaches to me and its working for them

Noise isn't the enemy, there's plenty of money to be made trading the noise. Trick is to be able to tell the difference between the noise and real money.
vhdgkl
Posts: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 9:26 am

Hi..

There are 2 3 things that came to mind when looking at the horse markets.

The first is a strategy idea...I'm waiting for the favourite to be just under the incremental point.1 or 2 ticks..for example 3.95 3.9..there are still a few horses left to enter the stalls and the starting time has expired.
At that point in time, taking the odds above 4 is too inconvenient, because there are no traders putting money in now.only bettors are left.
It's better to lower the odds...
Two or three ticks, no more of course.
It's a good place to bet to back 2 3 ticks lower.


The thing that I find hard to understand is that a couple of minutes before the start the big money comes in..you can see it immediately.
About 2 minutes before the start...
and you start to see the price move seriously, not with the false liquidity of the minutes before...
What's going on? Why is there suddenly so much money coming in? What I mean is that the increase in money should be gradual, but there is an exact moment when it all starts... what is happening? Who has come up with the idea of creating all this chaos in one second? Is there some precise event that takes place and starts everything?

Ty
Anbell
Posts: 2004
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

vhdgkl wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:33 pm
Hi..

There are 2 3 things that came to mind when looking at the horse markets.

The first is a strategy idea...I'm waiting for the favourite to be just under the incremental point.1 or 2 ticks..for example 3.95 3.9..there are still a few horses left to enter the stalls and the starting time has expired.
At that point in time, taking the odds above 4 is too inconvenient, because there are no traders putting money in now.only bettors are left.
It's better to lower the odds...
Two or three ticks, no more of course.
It's a good place to bet to back 2 3 ticks lower.


The thing that I find hard to understand is that a couple of minutes before the start the big money comes in..you can see it immediately.
About 2 minutes before the start...
and you start to see the price move seriously, not with the false liquidity of the minutes before...
What's going on? Why is there suddenly so much money coming in? What I mean is that the increase in money should be gradual, but there is an exact moment when it all starts... what is happening? Who has come up with the idea of creating all this chaos in one second? Is there some precise event that takes place and starts everything?

Ty
It's often the finish of the previous race.
vhdgkl
Posts: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 9:26 am

Anbell wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:59 pm
vhdgkl wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:33 pm
Hi..

There are 2 3 things that came to mind when looking at the horse markets.

The first is a strategy idea...I'm waiting for the favourite to be just under the incremental point.1 or 2 ticks..for example 3.95 3.9..there are still a few horses left to enter the stalls and the starting time has expired.
At that point in time, taking the odds above 4 is too inconvenient, because there are no traders putting money in now.only bettors are left.
It's better to lower the odds...
Two or three ticks, no more of course.
It's a good place to bet to back 2 3 ticks lower.


The thing that I find hard to understand is that a couple of minutes before the start the big money comes in..you can see it immediately.
About 2 minutes before the start...
and you start to see the price move seriously, not with the false liquidity of the minutes before...
What's going on? Why is there suddenly so much money coming in? What I mean is that the increase in money should be gradual, but there is an exact moment when it all starts... what is happening? Who has come up with the idea of creating all this chaos in one second? Is there some precise event that takes place and starts everything?

Ty
It's often the finish of the previous race.
No.
It is an exact instant...perfectly recognisable...it does not depend on the end of the previous race.
I can't understand who starts the whole mechanism.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Anbell wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:59 pm

It's often the finish of the previous race.
vhdgkl wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:33 pm
No.
It is an exact instant...perfectly recognisable...it does not depend on the end of the previous race.
I can't understand who starts the whole mechanism.


Somebody else was talking about this last week but said it was happening at exactly 01:55 before post time, can't say I noticed anything different to the usual volume increase the closer you get to the off.

Worth noting though that a lot of automation kicks in at exactly 5 minutes from the off and 4 mins 3 mins etc....and can in turn trigger other aotumation.

Also the possibility its just frequency illusion.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Bot has had an awful 2 days, all of last weeks profit gone and more.. Plus an extra double wammy of a bug in a rule which cost me an extra -£3. Just give me a break please....!?
Anyway bug fixed, will let it run the week, then evaluate again.
I really don't know how anyone makes a profit in these markets.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

goat68 wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:17 pm
Bot has had an awful 2 days, all of last weeks profit gone and more.. Plus an extra double wammy of a bug in a rule which cost me an extra -£3. Just give me a break please....!?
Anyway bug fixed, will let it run the week, then evaluate again.
I really don't know how anyone makes a profit in these markets.
Are you still using 3 tick stop losses?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

I remember Kai saying opportunities come from crowd over reactions, but i'm seeing there's so many traders and bots those opportunities are rare now....
I think i might be better off learning a confident voice, setting up a YouTube channel, and speaking trading lingo about trading this and that strategy,... far easier to make money that way 😁😁
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Trader Pat wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:21 pm
goat68 wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:17 pm
Bot has had an awful 2 days, all of last weeks profit gone and more.. Plus an extra double wammy of a bug in a rule which cost me an extra -£3. Just give me a break please....!?
Anyway bug fixed, will let it run the week, then evaluate again.
I really don't know how anyone makes a profit in these markets.
Are you still using 3 tick stop losses?
Nope that went ages ago, I have a more leanient exit now.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Trader Pat wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:21 pm
goat68 wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:17 pm
Bot has had an awful 2 days, all of last weeks profit gone and more.. Plus an extra double wammy of a bug in a rule which cost me an extra -£3. Just give me a break please....!?
Anyway bug fixed, will let it run the week, then evaluate again.
I really don't know how anyone makes a profit in these markets.
Are you still using 3 tick stop losses?
Also a more run winner exit as well
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

It might be just variance... lets see how the rest of the week goes.....
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

It's reminding me of Peter's variance video with the red and green squares, just a few more red in today's case!
Not heard from Peter on my thread for a while... you still there?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

He'll be watching Southampton of course...!
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