Simple, compelling and comfortably appealing strategies are typically wrong.....
Yep, go with that, Dutching, b2l, l2b,... at least the way the crowd and i trade them...
Trading What I see !?
I've been 'learning' order flow trading (in pre-off horse racing markets) for about 7 months now. I watched all Peter's videos on the subject repeatedly and have been manually trading all that time.
I lost money for the first 4 months but the loss decreased each month. I've have had a (small) profit for the last 3 months and I'm now at a position where my confidence is growing and I feel I can 'read' the markets much more clearly (though it's not easy). After 7 profitable days on the run I took a hit yesterday but that was down to poor trading by me - basically I dropped my guard psychologically and got mullered!!
My point is that, in my humble opinion, to learn order flow trading you'll have to sit for hour after hour watching - and ultimately trading - the markets. I'm not sure it can be automated - it is very nuanced and subtle. If aspects of it can be automated I'm a long way from seeing it but I'm becoming more comfortable with the manual side of it as time goes on.
I think it’s fair to say that it’s useful in pre off horse racing trading for everyone to have their own set of rules to abide by, not just to open a position on thinking what look likes drifting or steaming or even a having a hunch if it’s a suitable market to scalp, it’s only through experience & heaps of blood, sweat & tears that these rules can be made useful & learned to said individual, watching countless hours of markets is strongly advised.agog wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:25 pm
I've been 'learning' order flow trading (in pre-off horse racing markets) for about 7 months now. I watched all Peter's videos on the subject repeatedly and have been manually trading all that time.
My point is that, in my humble opinion, to learn order flow trading you'll have to sit for hour after hour watching
I agree, I watched the toaster video Peter did and I understand what he is saying, but if you haven't mastered that then the chances of getting perfect toast must be neigh on impossible if you tried to automate that process somehowagog wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:25 pmI've been 'learning' order flow trading (in pre-off horse racing markets) for about 7 months now. I watched all Peter's videos on the subject repeatedly and have been manually trading all that time.
I lost money for the first 4 months but the loss decreased each month. I've have had a (small) profit for the last 3 months and I'm now at a position where my confidence is growing and I feel I can 'read' the markets much more clearly (though it's not easy). After 7 profitable days on the run I took a hit yesterday but that was down to poor trading by me - basically I dropped my guard psychologically and got mullered!!
My point is that, in my humble opinion, to learn order flow trading you'll have to sit for hour after hour watching - and ultimately trading - the markets. I'm not sure it can be automated - it is very nuanced and subtle. If aspects of it can be automated I'm a long way from seeing it but I'm becoming more comfortable with the manual side of it as time goes on.
I am sure it can be automated but you need to follow the process and not try and short circuit it
it’s all about the volume & the effect on whatever runner you’re looking at entering a position on, that said you need to know what effect the volume is having on the other runners you’re not looking at whilst still looking at them if you see what I mean, yes it is difficult but not half as difficult when you’ve been looking at the markets for a while, it does get easier
Sounds like you're making progress, well done.agog wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:25 pmI've been 'learning' order flow trading (in pre-off horse racing markets) for about 7 months now. I watched all Peter's videos on the subject repeatedly and have been manually trading all that time.
I lost money for the first 4 months but the loss decreased each month. I've have had a (small) profit for the last 3 months and I'm now at a position where my confidence is growing and I feel I can 'read' the markets much more clearly (though it's not easy). After 7 profitable days on the run I took a hit yesterday but that was down to poor trading by me - basically I dropped my guard psychologically and got mullered!!
My point is that, in my humble opinion, to learn order flow trading you'll have to sit for hour after hour watching - and ultimately trading - the markets. I'm not sure it can be automated - it is very nuanced and subtle. If aspects of it can be automated I'm a long way from seeing it but I'm becoming more comfortable with the manual side of it as time goes on.
My plan is to come up with order flow models or behaviour and then bactest to verify it..
Im trying to get away from backtesting and hunting data for strategies, i don't think that works..
- Realrocknrolla
- Posts: 1903
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Yes, I think recording the pre-off markets to study later is a great strategy for anybody trying to learn order flow. It's particularly helpful in reviewing your mistakes as sometimes it can be difficult to pinpoint where you've gone wrong in a fast-moving market.
Getting very frustrated at this again...
Spent the last few evenings working on the CrossOver point order flow type trade. So i've created a bot that detects previous race finishes, then within the following minute after a previous race finish for a market that is approaching start, determines momentum of the top runners, and if one of those is hovering around a crossover (3,4,6), and the other main runners (ones with significant volume%) are showing Backing momentum, then Lay that selection.
I have been trying numerous, hedging, take profit/partial profit, adding to trade,... akin to what Peter demonstrates in his videos...
And I have been testing over a month sample.
Result....nothing shows a profit......!
I do think I am trying to do the impossible, as thinking about it, if you watch Peter's videos, his decision making for example on where he places exit trades, is very subjective based on 20years of experience, I am not going to achieve that!!!
I have tried:
- Stop loss, hedge at start if open
- Stop loss, and fixed target profit, hedge at start if open
- Stop loss, and fixed 1/2 target profit, run the rest, hedging at start
- Stop loss, and add to trade at a target, hedging at start
- No stop loss, and add to trade at a target, hedging at start
As you can see, all basic rules really, nothing compared to a subjective 20years of experience..........!
Of course, all these exits are useless if there is no edge in my "entry" to start with...!
Spent the last few evenings working on the CrossOver point order flow type trade. So i've created a bot that detects previous race finishes, then within the following minute after a previous race finish for a market that is approaching start, determines momentum of the top runners, and if one of those is hovering around a crossover (3,4,6), and the other main runners (ones with significant volume%) are showing Backing momentum, then Lay that selection.
I have been trying numerous, hedging, take profit/partial profit, adding to trade,... akin to what Peter demonstrates in his videos...
And I have been testing over a month sample.
Result....nothing shows a profit......!
I do think I am trying to do the impossible, as thinking about it, if you watch Peter's videos, his decision making for example on where he places exit trades, is very subjective based on 20years of experience, I am not going to achieve that!!!
I have tried:
- Stop loss, hedge at start if open
- Stop loss, and fixed target profit, hedge at start if open
- Stop loss, and fixed 1/2 target profit, run the rest, hedging at start
- Stop loss, and add to trade at a target, hedging at start
- No stop loss, and add to trade at a target, hedging at start
As you can see, all basic rules really, nothing compared to a subjective 20years of experience..........!
Of course, all these exits are useless if there is no edge in my "entry" to start with...!
goat68, few suggestions:
- keep in mind that different race types have different market behaviour. Hcap markets are less volatile that non-hcap or Irish markets. Don't put everything in the same bag.
- test crossovers of different moving averages with different lengths.
- keep in mind that different race types have different market behaviour. Hcap markets are less volatile that non-hcap or Irish markets. Don't put everything in the same bag.
- test crossovers of different moving averages with different lengths.
- try this basic aproach from financial trading: "If the price is above VWAP, it is a good intraday price to sell (back). If the price is below VWAP, it is a good intraday price to buy (lay)."if there is no edge in my "entry" to start with
Thanks, i've tried VWAP, and it's variable, it works nicely for one week, then awful the next... it's another demonstration of how a manual trader would probably spot something different those bad weeks....?napshnap wrote: ↑Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:44 amgoat68, few suggestions:
- keep in mind that different race types have different market behaviour. Hcap markets are less volatile that non-hcap or Irish markets. Don't put everything in the same bag.
- test crossovers of different moving averages with different lengths.
- try this basic aproach from financial trading: "If the price is above VWAP, it is a good intraday price to sell (back). If the price is below VWAP, it is a good intraday price to buy (lay)."if there is no edge in my "entry" to start with
Race type for Crossover points is an interesting question, I ask myself why race type would affect crossover behaviour? The fact that odds increments change affects both Hcap's and Mdn's...? Yes, one is more volatile than the other, so maybe things like leeway for noise and targets would differ...?