Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Simple, compelling and comfortably appealing strategies are typically wrong.....
Yep, go with that, Dutching, b2l, l2b,... at least the way the crowd and i trade them...
agog
Posts: 55
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:55 pm

goat68 wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 7:06 pm
Planning my next strategy, called "operation Order Flow" Python strategy! A set of classes to encompass various Webb based order flow aspects. Do you like my spin on web-based, quite like that one :D
I've been 'learning' order flow trading (in pre-off horse racing markets) for about 7 months now. I watched all Peter's videos on the subject repeatedly and have been manually trading all that time.

I lost money for the first 4 months but the loss decreased each month. I've have had a (small) profit for the last 3 months and I'm now at a position where my confidence is growing and I feel I can 'read' the markets much more clearly (though it's not easy). After 7 profitable days on the run I took a hit yesterday but that was down to poor trading by me - basically I dropped my guard psychologically and got mullered!!

My point is that, in my humble opinion, to learn order flow trading you'll have to sit for hour after hour watching - and ultimately trading - the markets. I'm not sure it can be automated - it is very nuanced and subtle. If aspects of it can be automated I'm a long way from seeing it but I'm becoming more comfortable with the manual side of it as time goes on.
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

agog wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:25 pm

I've been 'learning' order flow trading (in pre-off horse racing markets) for about 7 months now. I watched all Peter's videos on the subject repeatedly and have been manually trading all that time.

My point is that, in my humble opinion, to learn order flow trading you'll have to sit for hour after hour watching
I think it’s fair to say that it’s useful in pre off horse racing trading for everyone to have their own set of rules to abide by, not just to open a position on thinking what look likes drifting or steaming or even a having a hunch if it’s a suitable market to scalp, it’s only through experience & heaps of blood, sweat & tears that these rules can be made useful & learned to said individual, watching countless hours of markets is strongly advised.
andy28
Posts: 343
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:06 am
Location: NZ

agog wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:25 pm
goat68 wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 7:06 pm
Planning my next strategy, called "operation Order Flow" Python strategy! A set of classes to encompass various Webb based order flow aspects. Do you like my spin on web-based, quite like that one :D
I've been 'learning' order flow trading (in pre-off horse racing markets) for about 7 months now. I watched all Peter's videos on the subject repeatedly and have been manually trading all that time.

I lost money for the first 4 months but the loss decreased each month. I've have had a (small) profit for the last 3 months and I'm now at a position where my confidence is growing and I feel I can 'read' the markets much more clearly (though it's not easy). After 7 profitable days on the run I took a hit yesterday but that was down to poor trading by me - basically I dropped my guard psychologically and got mullered!!

My point is that, in my humble opinion, to learn order flow trading you'll have to sit for hour after hour watching - and ultimately trading - the markets. I'm not sure it can be automated - it is very nuanced and subtle. If aspects of it can be automated I'm a long way from seeing it but I'm becoming more comfortable with the manual side of it as time goes on.
I agree, I watched the toaster video Peter did and I understand what he is saying, but if you haven't mastered that then the chances of getting perfect toast must be neigh on impossible if you tried to automate that process somehow

I am sure it can be automated but you need to follow the process and not try and short circuit it
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

it’s all about the volume & the effect on whatever runner you’re looking at entering a position on, that said you need to know what effect the volume is having on the other runners you’re not looking at whilst still looking at them if you see what I mean, yes it is difficult but not half as difficult when you’ve been looking at the markets for a while, it does get easier
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

agog wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:25 pm
goat68 wrote:
Tue Oct 19, 2021 7:06 pm
Planning my next strategy, called "operation Order Flow" Python strategy! A set of classes to encompass various Webb based order flow aspects. Do you like my spin on web-based, quite like that one :D
I've been 'learning' order flow trading (in pre-off horse racing markets) for about 7 months now. I watched all Peter's videos on the subject repeatedly and have been manually trading all that time.

I lost money for the first 4 months but the loss decreased each month. I've have had a (small) profit for the last 3 months and I'm now at a position where my confidence is growing and I feel I can 'read' the markets much more clearly (though it's not easy). After 7 profitable days on the run I took a hit yesterday but that was down to poor trading by me - basically I dropped my guard psychologically and got mullered!!

My point is that, in my humble opinion, to learn order flow trading you'll have to sit for hour after hour watching - and ultimately trading - the markets. I'm not sure it can be automated - it is very nuanced and subtle. If aspects of it can be automated I'm a long way from seeing it but I'm becoming more comfortable with the manual side of it as time goes on.
Sounds like you're making progress, well done.
My plan is to come up with order flow models or behaviour and then bactest to verify it..
Im trying to get away from backtesting and hunting data for strategies, i don't think that works..
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Of course I need market time to see this, so thinking of maybe setting up BA guardian to autoswitch markets and screen record to watch in the evening....
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

goat68 wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:48 pm
Of course I need market time to see this, so thinking of maybe setting up BA guardian to autoswitch markets and screen record to watch in the evening....
Good idea. That works.

I did it a few times!
agog
Posts: 55
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:55 pm

goat68 wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:48 pm
Of course I need market time to see this, so thinking of maybe setting up BA guardian to autoswitch markets and screen record to watch in the evening....
Yes, I think recording the pre-off markets to study later is a great strategy for anybody trying to learn order flow. It's particularly helpful in reviewing your mistakes as sometimes it can be difficult to pinpoint where you've gone wrong in a fast-moving market.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Getting very frustrated at this again...
Spent the last few evenings working on the CrossOver point order flow type trade. So i've created a bot that detects previous race finishes, then within the following minute after a previous race finish for a market that is approaching start, determines momentum of the top runners, and if one of those is hovering around a crossover (3,4,6), and the other main runners (ones with significant volume%) are showing Backing momentum, then Lay that selection.
I have been trying numerous, hedging, take profit/partial profit, adding to trade,... akin to what Peter demonstrates in his videos...
And I have been testing over a month sample.
Result....nothing shows a profit......!

I do think I am trying to do the impossible, as thinking about it, if you watch Peter's videos, his decision making for example on where he places exit trades, is very subjective based on 20years of experience, I am not going to achieve that!!!
I have tried:
- Stop loss, hedge at start if open
- Stop loss, and fixed target profit, hedge at start if open
- Stop loss, and fixed 1/2 target profit, run the rest, hedging at start
- Stop loss, and add to trade at a target, hedging at start
- No stop loss, and add to trade at a target, hedging at start
As you can see, all basic rules really, nothing compared to a subjective 20years of experience..........!

Of course, all these exits are useless if there is no edge in my "entry" to start with...!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

So pure-auto is too hard, and order-flow trading is really for the manual world, Hmmm
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napshnap
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

goat68, few suggestions:

- keep in mind that different race types have different market behaviour. Hcap markets are less volatile that non-hcap or Irish markets. Don't put everything in the same bag.

- test crossovers of different moving averages with different lengths.
if there is no edge in my "entry" to start with
- try this basic aproach from financial trading: "If the price is above VWAP, it is a good intraday price to sell (back). If the price is below VWAP, it is a good intraday price to buy (lay)."
adryan87
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:11 pm

When is the best time to enter on a trade pre-off?? Everytime i back,odd drift against me:)).It's a window time or something else ? How to anticipate an odd will drop?? No one want to say this things? :))
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

napshnap wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:44 am
goat68, few suggestions:

- keep in mind that different race types have different market behaviour. Hcap markets are less volatile that non-hcap or Irish markets. Don't put everything in the same bag.

- test crossovers of different moving averages with different lengths.
if there is no edge in my "entry" to start with
- try this basic aproach from financial trading: "If the price is above VWAP, it is a good intraday price to sell (back). If the price is below VWAP, it is a good intraday price to buy (lay)."
Thanks, i've tried VWAP, and it's variable, it works nicely for one week, then awful the next... it's another demonstration of how a manual trader would probably spot something different those bad weeks....?
Race type for Crossover points is an interesting question, I ask myself why race type would affect crossover behaviour? The fact that odds increments change affects both Hcap's and Mdn's...? Yes, one is more volatile than the other, so maybe things like leeway for noise and targets would differ...?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

The key difference I see is with automation I have a strict unchanging set of rules, which can go horribly wrong if the markets change, whereas manual traders can react to the market changes they see occurring...
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