Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Leeds1919
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:20 pm

Ok I think I get it now! :)

So the calc is only useful in my situation if I wanted to work out if I would have been better letting the bet run instead of hedging?
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Leeds1919 wrote:
Mon Aug 22, 2022 2:14 pm
Ok I think I get it now! :)

So the calc is only useful in my situation if I wanted to work out if I would have been better letting the bet run instead of hedging?
It works out the hedged pl.
If you don't hedge your PL is just what it is.

You can compare those two, but over a long period they'll be pretty much the same. That's because the only difference between the two scenarios is the bet which you use to hedge, and that will be at a price that is fair/zero Ev/correct/accurate. Fair value bets have a zero expected value so hedging or not hedging doesn't affect your gross amount. If it did, then it would show you were somehow obtaining good or poor value hedging bets and that could be a clue to an edge on its own.

It will affect your commission though so that might be worth thinking about, eg big wins and losses vs small wins and losses.
Leeds1919
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:20 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 22, 2022 2:31 pm
Leeds1919 wrote:
Mon Aug 22, 2022 2:14 pm
Ok I think I get it now! :)

So the calc is only useful in my situation if I wanted to work out if I would have been better letting the bet run instead of hedging?
It works out the hedged pl.
If you don't hedge your PL is just what it is.

You can compare those two, but over a long period they'll be pretty much the same. That's because the only difference between the two scenarios is the bet which you use to hedge, and that will be at a price that is fair/zero Ev/correct/accurate. Fair value bets have a zero expected value so hedging or not hedging doesn't affect your gross amount. If it did, then it would show you were somehow obtaining good or poor value hedging bets and that could be a clue to an edge on its own.

It will affect your commission though so that might be worth thinking about, eg big wins and losses vs small wins and losses.
OK there's a lot of food for thought in there

Thanks again Shaun
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

No probs Leeds. Its just about making that mental connection between 'trading' and the fact your PL is just the sum of actual bets that all run, and each win or lose. 'Hedging' is just another of those bets and has a pl like any other bet.

.... And of course understanding that when betting, PL is always a function of value. Its not generally easy to understand the value associated with your 'trading: bets, or even necessary, but BSP is one of those points that's well understood, and it is as close to a breakeven bet as you can get.

Knowledge is always good but don't let this distract you too much for now, at your stage I'd always recommend hedging, it's just a point of interest for if you can't for some reason.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Continuing work to tweak from live data and also adding new strategies is showing nice acceleration of monthly profits.
Long term net:
Screenshot 2022-11-05 at 11.51.29.png
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Anbell
Posts: 2007
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:54 am
Continuing work to tweak from live data and also adding new strategies is showing nice acceleration of monthly profits.
Long term net:
Screenshot 2022-11-05 at 11.51.29.png
Awesome to see! More updates please!
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BWhizz
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 9:57 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:54 am
Continuing work to tweak from live data and also adding new strategies is showing nice acceleration of monthly profits.
Long term net:
Screenshot 2022-11-05 at 11.51.29.png
Thats looking really good.👍🏻

If you dont mind me asking, approx how many trades per day and approx stakes you are using to achieve this?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

BWhizz wrote:
Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:55 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:54 am
Continuing work to tweak from live data and also adding new strategies is showing nice acceleration of monthly profits.
Long term net:
Screenshot 2022-11-05 at 11.51.29.png
Thats looking really good.👍🏻

If you dont mind me asking, approx how many trades per day and approx stakes you are using to achieve this?
roughly 1000 trades a day
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BWhizz
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 9:57 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 07, 2022 11:39 am
BWhizz wrote:
Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:55 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:54 am
Continuing work to tweak from live data and also adding new strategies is showing nice acceleration of monthly profits.
Long term net:
Screenshot 2022-11-05 at 11.51.29.png
Thats looking really good.👍🏻

If you dont mind me asking, approx how many trades per day and approx stakes you are using to achieve this?
roughly 1000 trades a day
Thanks for info. Sure it will continue in same vein as you clearly put the work in to get there 👍🏻
Will have another read through of this thread as think some learnings to be had
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Just noticed I now have a Premium Charge view, i'm still well within my allowance, but it's useful to be able to see it, 17% not bad for last week:
Screenshot 2022-11-16 at 08.06.16.png
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dm1900
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:02 pm

So goat, what would you say we're the most important things you picked up in this journey?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

dm1900 wrote:
Sun Nov 20, 2022 12:10 pm
So goat, what would you say we're the most important things you picked up in this journey?
1. Experience in the markets, it takes time for the brain to understand it
2. Thinking beyond the obvious
3. Value is everything long term
4. Focus on what fits your mode of working, for me that is coding and automation
5. Don't lose lots of money! Ie.Keep things as small as possible for as long as possible, trading randomly you won't lose much, so if you are then your unconscious bias is leading you the wrong way..
6. Think about who might be the other side of your trade
allankane
Posts: 14
Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:39 am

New to this forum and just spent the last few weeks reading this thread. It's like a feelgood christmas movie. Seeing GOATS highs and lows over a year and more was fascinating.

Great to see you having success now and it was earned, which makes the success so much sweeter.

To those who contributed, well done for sticking with the help and advice. I think this will, forever, be my favourite thread.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

allankane wrote:
Tue Dec 27, 2022 11:21 am
New to this forum and just spent the last few weeks reading this thread. It's like a feelgood christmas movie. Seeing GOATS highs and lows over a year and more was fascinating.

Great to see you having success now and it was earned, which makes the success so much sweeter.

To those who contributed, well done for sticking with the help and advice. I think this will, forever, be my favourite thread.
Thank you Allankane, it has been a good year, and I hope this thread spawns others to do the same.
A Happy New Year to you all.
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

for those on here regularly reading this thread I would be really interested to know how long you’ve been trading the horse racing markets?
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