Trading What I see !?

[andy28]

Pace notes on their own won't help you unless you understand pace. It's pace that makes the race. You may see a horse may lead but the question is how much work did it do to get there? When reading a pace map it is important to look and what the horse that is running 2nd will do. The horse running 2nd determines the pace of the race.

A horse that draws well and gets an easy lead due to lack of pressure from the 2nd horse will take the pace out of the race (gets a rest) and turn it into a sprint home which suits those on pace, especially over a longer trip. If the same horse gets pressure from a horse drawn wide (or another horse wanting the lead) looking for the rail will mean in most cases a quicker pace and the leader doesn't get its rest so sets it up for those off the pace.

Down under sectionals play a big part because most track are similar in shape and size (with a few exceptions) compared to the UK so understanding them is key and also the Jockey. Which jocks will push forward from a wide draw and which will more than likely drop back to midfield or further back on a horse that may like to go forward.

I use the Racenet speed maps because you can move the horses around to suit how you think the race will go

[goat68]

How are you testing this?

Not sure how you would do that

Exactly, so why choose that approach when it doesn't play to any of your strengths?

All trading is hard, you'd be better off sticking to one thing rather than changing your approach each time you encounter a problem. Eg If you look at the testing you'd been relying on 3 or 4 months ago I'm sure you can now see a whole heap of issues with how you did it, how about revisiting all that and not making the same mistakes again? Seems like you're paying for knowledge but then not using it, so you're not progressing.

I agree playing to strengths, but from my experience so far I just can't see how "value any time" can work... Even Peter says you're unlikely to find a strategy that works for all markets........?

My circular process of trying to find a "value any time" was found something that was nearly there, then to make it profitable I basically "filtered" races/selections/prices/... but it seems all the latter was doing was "fitting!"

[goat68]

I'm fairly sure i'm just missing the "secret sauce" on "value any time", mainly because I can't really see why it would work.
Imagine "offering" bets say 2-3 ticks out then cancelling them if unmatched after 5 seconds, on every runner, and repeat... Why would that work? so price gets taken say on one selection, but that's only because price has slipped 3ticks on another...why would it suddenly be "value" ?

[goat68]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROWhxLZgN2c

[goat68]

Remember all my "spike" stuff...?!
That was me trying from the other end... ie.look backwards, look back is the price 3ticks higher than 5seconds ago? if so Back... Then I tried adding all sorts of triggers to it, WoM, scaled WoM, VWAP, MVWAP, TradedBalance,...

[goat68]

As you can see by my trend, it's just guesswork and testing....
ie.why isn't this profitable? maybe just adding WoM might make it!

[goat68]

Just looking at Peter's recent dobbing videos and just look at the number of people requesting Peter do a selection process video, every man, woman and dog..!!

[Tetras]

I'm fairly sure i'm just missing the "secret sauce" on "value any time", mainly because I can't really see why it would work.
Imagine "offering" bets say 2-3 ticks out then cancelling them if unmatched after 5 seconds, on every runner, and repeat... Why would that work? so price gets taken say on one selection, but that's only because price has slipped 3ticks on another...why would it suddenly be "value" ?

From my perspective that's exactly the kind of thinking you need to be profitable, that is the secret sauce, to always ask "why do I have any advantage here?" and if you can't answer the question, it's not a winner. Your job as a trader is to find any/all scenarios that you can answer that question.

[goat68]

I'm fairly sure i'm just missing the "secret sauce" on "value any time", mainly because I can't really see why it would work.
Imagine "offering" bets say 2-3 ticks out then cancelling them if unmatched after 5 seconds, on every runner, and repeat... Why would that work? so price gets taken say on one selection, but that's only because price has slipped 3ticks on another...why would it suddenly be "value" ?

From my perspective that's exactly the kind of thinking you need to be profitable, that is the secret sauce, to always ask "why do I have any advantage here?" and if you can't answer the question, it's not a winner. Your job as a trader is to find any/all scenarios that you can answer that question.

Exactly, hence why I moved onto other ideas...

[goat68]

I'm fairly sure i'm just missing the "secret sauce" on "value any time", mainly because I can't really see why it would work.
Imagine "offering" bets say 2-3 ticks out then cancelling them if unmatched after 5 seconds, on every runner, and repeat... Why would that work? so price gets taken say on one selection, but that's only because price has slipped 3ticks on another...why would it suddenly be "value" ?

From my perspective that's exactly the kind of thinking you need to be profitable, that is the secret sauce, to always ask "why do I have any advantage here?" and if you can't answer the question, it's not a winner. Your job as a trader is to find any/all scenarios that you can answer that question.

Although maybe im just not clever enough to know it !

[goat68]

You see "valueanytime", doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but what does is value at certain times. For example, value signals are probably more consistent about 1minute or so aftef the previous race has finished, ie,volume and wom driven by people with large opinions entering market.. that makes sense.

[Tetras]

I'm fairly sure i'm just missing the "secret sauce" on "value any time", mainly because I can't really see why it would work.
Imagine "offering" bets say 2-3 ticks out then cancelling them if unmatched after 5 seconds, on every runner, and repeat... Why would that work? so price gets taken say on one selection, but that's only because price has slipped 3ticks on another...why would it suddenly be "value" ?

From my perspective that's exactly the kind of thinking you need to be profitable, that is the secret sauce, to always ask "why do I have any advantage here?" and if you can't answer the question, it's not a winner. Your job as a trader is to find any/all scenarios that you can answer that question.

Exactly, hence why I moved onto other ideas...

If you can expand on the things that do work and the things that don't, that will give you more ideas and my impression of what Shaun said is that you've got a wealth of data and experience already and when you start again, you've got to go back to square one and figure out all the variables all over again. For example: I don't really do any BTL or LTB apart from a few sneaky ones, because I know nearly nothing about it. It's not just exploring a new idea, it's like the trader equivalent of a rocket scientist deciding over night they'll be a vet.

[goat68]

From my perspective that's exactly the kind of thinking you need to be profitable, that is the secret sauce, to always ask "why do I have any advantage here?" and if you can't answer the question, it's not a winner. Your job as a trader is to find any/all scenarios that you can answer that question.

Exactly, hence why I moved onto other ideas...

If you can expand on the things that do work and the things that don't, that will give you more ideas and my impression of what Shaun said is that you've got a wealth of data and experience already and when you start again, you've got to go back to square one and figure out all the variables all over again. For example: I don't really do any BTL or LTB apart from a few sneaky ones, because I know nearly nothing about it. It's not just exploring a new idea, it's like the trader equivalent of a rocket scientist deciding over night they'll be a vet.

Yeah, sort of realized that, it's like taking a break really, but whether i go back to being a rocket scientist im not sure, as i cant see through the black hole at the moment......!

[Tetras]

You see "valueanytime", doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but what does is value at certain times. For example, value signals are probably more consistent about 1minute or so aftef the previous race has finished, ie,volume and wom driven by people with large opinions entering market.. that makes sense.

It does yes, but it depends how you trade. For example: if your 'thing' is to make money in markets that haven't established themselves yet (like... Irish), then you adjust how you trade to cope with the uncertainty. So... 1-tick scalping 5 minutes out is probably going to empty your account On other hand, there's also a huge opportunity, because if you have some way of either (or all three): knowing where the money will land, minimising exposure to losses, ensuring profits outweigh the losses, then poorly formed markets can be a great money spinner.

The perspective of automation I assume is a little different, because you're looking for a high level of consistency (in signals, in value) that can be automated.

That's why I don't do BTL/LTB, because I don't know the parameters for any of those things, so I can't guarantee I will be getting any value from my selections.

[wearthefoxhat]

You see "valueanytime", doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but what does is value at certain times. For example, value signals are probably more consistent about 1minute or so aftef the previous race has finished, ie,volume and wom driven by people with large opinions entering market.. that makes sense.

Do you think there's a "value-perfect" set up that gets you into/out of a trade if the Volume/WOM/Liquidity all align?
(My answer is yes&no. The use of a scratch trade or small loss should be used when the value-perfect set up disappears)

What is your own perception of value?
(My answer is depends. My estimation of what I believe to be value may be different to yours and the attributes you employ)

Are other traders/bettors better as forming an opinon of where the value is?
(My answer is Yes&No. By specialising in a market yes, in all markets no.

Just one observation in your post. If you wait for people/a person with large opinions to enter a market, it maybe too late. They in effect control where the market goes and your going along for the ride. You need to anticipate where the large opinons will enter and get ahead of them.