I'm just trying like everyone else on here to find a way that works for me....
Trading What I see !?
Anyway, I was watching some of the automated bets go through, and I've spotted a good tweak to try tomorrow.
Another thing I noticed a couple of times is the offset bet not being placed. I am using an offset and stop, so not sure what's happened there
Another thing I noticed a couple of times is the offset bet not being placed. I am using an offset and stop, so not sure what's happened there
Why a stop and offset? One of them is certainly not going to be +ev
In order to be profitable you need to place positive ev bets, how is a stop order ever going to be positive ev long term?
It can't be that simple, so you're saying Guardian is crap as it provides tools that are by definition -ev ?
To me if timed in the right market, and you achieve a strike rate and risk/reward correctly you should be able to achieve +ev?
Why would an order that is crossing the spread on the opposite side of your initial (supposed +ve) be positive ev?
Not saying anything is crap but you can’t just apply order types / strategies without thinking about them objectively in terms of expected value.
i've no idea what you are saying, let me try and decompose with an example:LinusP wrote: ↑Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:59 pmWhy would an order that is crossing the spread on the opposite side of your initial (supposed +ve) be positive ev?
Not saying anything is crap but you can’t just apply order types / strategies without thinking about them objectively in terms of expected value.
Ranging stable price, enter reverse best price Back at 5.5, Stop 5.8, Offset(lay) 5.4
Spread current = 5.4-5.5
Price move 1tick, new spread = 5.3-5.4, Offset(lay) bet matched for 1tick profit
Sorry, still don't understand what you are saying, you need to come down to my level please?
spread = 1tick generally yes? eg.5.4 to 5.5 ?
what is "long term expectancy of the spread"?, spread is 1tick 5.4 to 5.5 ?!
maybe you mean something different with spread?
if I can determine a market setup eg.WOM scalping, where the expectancy of 1tick profit is say 80%, and 3tick loss 20%, then over 100 bets I will make 20ticks.
I also find it a bit harsh that you're making comments about a strategy very similar to Dallas's ScalpingWOM, which actually uses a 4tick stop.
- Realrocknrolla
- Posts: 1903
- Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm
When i read Peters posts, i read them in Raymond Reddington voice.
Both interesting in there own rights
This demonstrates what a huge void there is between those that know and those that don't.Realrocknrolla wrote: ↑Mon Dec 21, 2020 10:34 pmWhen i read Peters posts, i read them in Raymond Reddington voice.
Both interesting in there own rights
I guess this forum is never going to be a place of teaching, so why come down to the newbie level...
Anyway, as I said, I'm going to tweak my rules and hopefully improve.