Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

to75ne wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 4:15 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 4:07 pm
Blimey I knew Automation wouldn't be easy, but blimey I'm great at creating rules that lose consistently.......!
Thinking of playing them in reverse which seems illogical !
if you cant manually trade, why do you think you can automate trading (or aspects of it, such opening, getting out when it gone against you and so on) with any success.
I'm just trying like everyone else on here to find a way that works for me....
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Anyway, I was watching some of the automated bets go through, and I've spotted a good tweak to try tomorrow.
Another thing I noticed a couple of times is the offset bet not being placed. I am using an offset and stop, so not sure what's happened there
LinusP
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Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:45 pm
Anyway, I was watching some of the automated bets go through, and I've spotted a good tweak to try tomorrow.
Another thing I noticed a couple of times is the offset bet not being placed. I am using an offset and stop, so not sure what's happened there
Why a stop and offset? One of them is certainly not going to be +ev
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

LinusP wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:21 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:45 pm
Anyway, I was watching some of the automated bets go through, and I've spotted a good tweak to try tomorrow.
Another thing I noticed a couple of times is the offset bet not being placed. I am using an offset and stop, so not sure what's happened there
Why a stop and offset? One of them is certainly not going to be +ev
Surely with the right timing and market it can be?
Did you use Guardian?
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:26 pm
LinusP wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:21 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:45 pm
Anyway, I was watching some of the automated bets go through, and I've spotted a good tweak to try tomorrow.
Another thing I noticed a couple of times is the offset bet not being placed. I am using an offset and stop, so not sure what's happened there
Why a stop and offset? One of them is certainly not going to be +ev
Surely with the right timing and market it can be?
Did you use Guardian?
In order to be profitable you need to place positive ev bets, how is a stop order ever going to be positive ev long term?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

LinusP wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:45 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:26 pm
LinusP wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:21 pm


Why a stop and offset? One of them is certainly not going to be +ev
Surely with the right timing and market it can be?
Did you use Guardian?
In order to be profitable you need to place positive ev bets, how is a stop order ever going to be positive ev long term?
It can't be that simple, so you're saying Guardian is crap as it provides tools that are by definition -ev ?
To me if timed in the right market, and you achieve a strike rate and risk/reward correctly you should be able to achieve +ev?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

We are talking the same thing here?
Exact action is 'Offset bet and stop'
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:54 pm
LinusP wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:45 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:26 pm


Surely with the right timing and market it can be?
Did you use Guardian?
In order to be profitable you need to place positive ev bets, how is a stop order ever going to be positive ev long term?
It can't be that simple, so you're saying Guardian is crap as it provides tools that are by definition -ev ?
To me if timed in the right market, and you achieve a strike rate and risk/reward correctly you should be able to achieve +ev?
Why would an order that is crossing the spread on the opposite side of your initial (supposed +ve) be positive ev?

Not saying anything is crap but you can’t just apply order types / strategies without thinking about them objectively in terms of expected value.
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

Liam is trying to say if you place your stop losses where it triggers more than the profit or the long term expectancy of the spread isn't positive, you won't make money in the long term.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

LinusP wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:59 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:54 pm
LinusP wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:45 pm


In order to be profitable you need to place positive ev bets, how is a stop order ever going to be positive ev long term?
It can't be that simple, so you're saying Guardian is crap as it provides tools that are by definition -ev ?
To me if timed in the right market, and you achieve a strike rate and risk/reward correctly you should be able to achieve +ev?
Why would an order that is crossing the spread on the opposite side of your initial (supposed +ve) be positive ev?

Not saying anything is crap but you can’t just apply order types / strategies without thinking about them objectively in terms of expected value.
i've no idea what you are saying, let me try and decompose with an example:
Ranging stable price, enter reverse best price Back at 5.5, Stop 5.8, Offset(lay) 5.4
Spread current = 5.4-5.5
Price move 1tick, new spread = 5.3-5.4, Offset(lay) bet matched for 1tick profit

Sorry, still don't understand what you are saying, you need to come down to my level please?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Euler wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:53 pm
Liam is trying to say if you place your stop losses where it triggers more than the profit or the long term expectancy of the spread isn't positive, you won't make money in the long term.
spread = 1tick generally yes? eg.5.4 to 5.5 ?
what is "long term expectancy of the spread"?, spread is 1tick 5.4 to 5.5 ?!
maybe you mean something different with spread?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Euler wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:53 pm
Liam is trying to say if you place your stop losses where it triggers more than the profit or the long term expectancy of the spread isn't positive, you won't make money in the long term.
if I can determine a market setup eg.WOM scalping, where the expectancy of 1tick profit is say 80%, and 3tick loss 20%, then over 100 bets I will make 20ticks.

I also find it a bit harsh that you're making comments about a strategy very similar to Dallas's ScalpingWOM, which actually uses a 4tick stop.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

spread = "the spread is the gap between the bid and the ask prices of a security or asset"
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

Euler wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:53 pm
Liam is trying to say if you place your stop losses where it triggers more than the profit or the long term expectancy of the spread isn't positive, you won't make money in the long term.
When i read Peters posts, i read them in Raymond Reddington voice.

Both interesting in there own rights
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Realrocknrolla wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 10:34 pm
Euler wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:53 pm
Liam is trying to say if you place your stop losses where it triggers more than the profit or the long term expectancy of the spread isn't positive, you won't make money in the long term.
When i read Peters posts, i read them in Raymond Reddington voice.

Both interesting in there own rights
This demonstrates what a huge void there is between those that know and those that don't.
I guess this forum is never going to be a place of teaching, so why come down to the newbie level...
Anyway, as I said, I'm going to tweak my rules and hopefully improve.
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