Trading What I see !?

[jamesg46]

Better yet, we can dredge up some of your old advice, just as a reminder of where goat should be looking in order to achieve profitability, which is don't care about value and just look for the market to wave at you.

That's all you need, you just have to wave back. I could tell goat how to become profitable in less than 10 words but that wouldn't help him much. And yes, without taking into account the nuances you can profit without taking into account the value, although that does not mean that you do not have it. Of course any advice I would give cannot be compared to your method of getting rich in one day.

It was very silly of me to post that video with that in the title but it was a genuine mistake. I dont in any way want to portray getting rich in one day & I've never intentionally given off that message. My message was about price action and trying to find ways of using it within automation, which hopefully could lead to a constructive conversation that may or may not be of help to someone. Instead here we are with you bending the narrative and turning it into a destructive conversation... for that reason I hope you have a great day & unless we can find something constructive to talk about, I think its best we don't continue.

[Maturin]

Here is a really well drawn up ( ) example of some obvious price action indicating changes in momentum. The backing activity from 2.66 is starting to get rejected by lay activity down around 2.4 which is shown by the 2 candles with relatively long lower wicks. The lay activity starts to get rejected by backers up at 3.95 and at 3.4 there is a candle making a new low, indicating the momentum may of changed. 1 clear entry point, and one clear exit point. It offers a visual place where you would stop out if the trade didn't go your way, my entry would have been a lay at 2.5 with a stop of a candle making a new low around 2.4, first target 2.66.

I get that others may have different ways of trading but I was only making the suggestion as this can now be analysed using History Lists and stored values.

Hi James, are your candles based on LTP, Back, Lay price or a combination?

Cheers

[jamesg46]

Here is a really well drawn up ( ) example of some obvious price action indicating changes in momentum. The backing activity from 2.66 is starting to get rejected by lay activity down around 2.4 which is shown by the 2 candles with relatively long lower wicks. The lay activity starts to get rejected by backers up at 3.95 and at 3.4 there is a candle making a new low, indicating the momentum may of changed. 1 clear entry point, and one clear exit point. It offers a visual place where you would stop out if the trade didn't go your way, my entry would have been a lay at 2.5 with a stop of a candle making a new low around 2.4, first target 2.66.

I get that others may have different ways of trading but I was only making the suggestion as this can now be analysed using History Lists and stored values.

Hi James, are your candles based on LTP, Back, Lay price or a combination?

Cheers

Based on Back price Maturin.

[Trader724]

Better yet, we can dredge up some of your old advice, just as a reminder of where goat should be looking in order to achieve profitability, which is don't care about value and just look for the market to wave at you.

That's all you need, you just have to wave back. I could tell goat how to become profitable in less than 10 words but that wouldn't help him much. And yes, without taking into account the nuances you can profit without taking into account the value, although that does not mean that you do not have it. Of course any advice I would give cannot be compared to your method of getting rich in one day.

It was very silly of me to post that video with that in the title but it was a genuine mistake. I dont in any way want to portray getting rich in one day & I've never intentionally given off that message. My message was about price action and trying to find ways of using it within automation, which hopefully could lead to a constructive conversation that may or may not be of help to someone. Instead here we are with you bending the narrative and turning it into a destructive conversation... for that reason I hope you have a great day & unless we can find something constructive to talk about, I think its best we don't continue.

I know man I was just kidding I always have fun when I see on YouTube titles like Get Rich In One Day or similar stuff meant just to attract views. It was just a joke.
I wish you a wonderful day!

[Tetras]

Another approach ive thought about is just pick a strategy like back a horse that breaks below a crossover point. Then try and target the markets and profiles it tends to work on... the only issue there is i maybe backfitting, and rolling forward may still be -ev

I'd recommend this idea 100%, it's similar to what Peter has said about focus on one thing (like, steamers) and get good at recognising that. There's no value (no pun intended) in spreading your focus too broadly across the markets. It's a "wood through the trees" type scenario and only the most experienced of us can afford to be generalists, everyone else has to find a pocket to pick.

What you said above this, about price, volume, etc, they do matter obviously, but they're ONLY relevant in the context of the market, you can't anticipate anything without context (well, okay, maybe 5x £10,000 bets on a steamer suggests it will continue). I don't know if it's possible to ever develop that awareness by looking at data. I would imagine the data is more useful to fine tune your strategies, or to evaluate a theory, not to figure out what is happening and why in the first place.

If you watch evening and weekend races it'll be helpful, but they do behave quite differently.

Sometimes I get the impression you think you've got to search for this rare gem somewhere, but if you saw how I made my money pre and post, you'd laugh at how ridiculously simple it was. I remember dismissing a lot of the fundamental advice while I was learning the basics (like risk vs reward), but if you follow that, you can still make money with poor execution, or little ability to anticipate.

I mentioned I don't automate, so take what you will.

[beermonsterman]

Another approach ive thought about is just pick a strategy like back a horse that breaks below a crossover point. Then try and target the markets and profiles it tends to work on... the only issue there is i maybe backfitting, and rolling forward may still be -ev

I'd recommend this idea 100%, it's similar to what Peter has said about focus on one thing (like, steamers) and get good at recognising that. There's no value (no pun intended) in spreading your focus too broadly across the markets. It's a "wood through the trees" type scenario and only the most experienced of us can afford to be generalists, everyone else has to find a pocket to pick.

What you said above this, about price, volume, etc, they do matter obviously, but they're ONLY relevant in the context of the market, you can't anticipate anything without context (well, okay, maybe 5x £10,000 bets on a steamer suggests it will continue). I don't know if it's possible to ever develop that awareness by looking at data. I would imagine the data is more useful to fine tune your strategies, or to evaluate a theory, not to figure out what is happening and why in the first place.

If you watch evening and weekend races it'll be helpful, but they do behave quite differently.

Sometimes I get the impression you think you've got to search for this rare gem somewhere, but if you saw how I made my money pre and post, you'd laugh at how ridiculously simple it was. I remember dismissing a lot of the fundamental advice while I was learning the basics (like risk vs reward), but if you follow that, you can still make money with poor execution, or little ability to anticipate.

I mentioned I don't automate, so take what you will.

I agree look for steamers and the rest starts to fall into place

[Euler]

I started from the lowest base possible, knew nothing about horses and had to find a way into the market.

So price action and order flow was the way I choose to trade on racing.

While my trading is very highly developed now it makes sense to start on something simple get good at it and then try and roll in other strategies. That's exactly what I did and when I sit down with my children that's what I teach them to do.

[Trader724]

I started from the lowest base possible, knew nothing about horse and had to find a way into the market.

So price action and order flow was the way I choose to trade on racing.

While my trading is very highly developed now it makes sense to start on something simple get good at it and then try and roll in other strategies. That's exactly what I did and when I sit down with my children that's what I teach them to do.

It's the best thing you can do. Peter, I'm very interested in your opinion on value, are you particularly interested in value when trading and do you base all your trades on value bets, or is it more important how money flows regardless of value?

[JasBarrow]

I started from the lowest base possible, knew nothing about horse and had to find a way into the market.

So price action and order flow was the way I choose to trade on racing.

Whats the difference between the 2? I would have thought they were the same thing?

[goat68]

So i've got my one strategy I am going to concentrate on, which is similar to back a steamer, using my own derived "being backed" metric, and uses entry based on what i've gleamed from 2 weeks of data might actually work. So it's obviously "Back" only, and i'm going to work on trying to make it work...or rather remove what doesn't work with it...

[goat68]

I do worry about finding steamers of the FOMO that Peter's latest video talks about, "Oh look that looks like a Steamer, jump on....bounce!! too late!"

[Realrocknrolla]

I do worry about finding steamers of the FOMO that Peter's latest video talks about, "Oh look that looks like a Steamer, jump on....bounce!! too late!"

Lay it then

[ShaunWhite]

I do worry about finding steamers of the FOMO that Peter's latest video talks about, "Oh look that looks like a Steamer, jump on....bounce!! too late!"

Trends never continue indefinately, and are more likey to fade or bounce at some prices rather than others because you'll never stand in a bookies and hear someone say a horse is worth it down to 2.87645, real people talking in round numbers or traditional odds.

And remember that when Peter says jump on he's making decisions a heck of lot faster than you are. He's also aware of likely bounce points so won't get too involved as one is approaching.

[beermonsterman]

I do worry about finding steamers of the FOMO that Peter's latest video talks about, "Oh look that looks like a Steamer, jump on....bounce!! too late!"

You will start too see it G its exactly what I do is find steamers if you look at the graph's I've put up of steamers you will see that most of them have been cut in price from the start of the day all the way to the off with little retrace and no big bounces they travel in very steady and confidently them are the most likely to continue as they have gathered momentum from early out and if the price of the other runners dont look a threat to the fav steaming you have confidence the trick to finding them is patience the perfect set up dont come round often but when it does its obvious and you will start too see how trading works .

[goat68]

I do worry about finding steamers of the FOMO that Peter's latest video talks about, "Oh look that looks like a Steamer, jump on....bounce!! too late!"

You will start too see it G its exactly what I do is find steamers if you look at the graph's I've put up of steamers you will see that most of them have been cut in price from the start of the day all the way to the off with little retrace and no big bounces they travel in very steady and confidently them are the most likely to continue as they have gathered momentum from early out and if the price of the other runners dont look a threat to the fav steaming you have confidence the trick to finding them is patience the perfect set up dont come round often but when it does its obvious and you will start too see how trading works .

You make an interesting point here Beer, in that my bot is looking at the market only from 30mins out, not the start of the day, you imply the morning move is significant, so I may have to have the bot working all morning...at least just catching the price moves