Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

I only focused on one set-up which was to avoid all competitive markets, H'caps etc and scalping and only look for uncompetitive (a short priced fav),

This meant for several years when it got to winter and there was no more than 2 cards for days at a time I'd often only trade a max of 3-4 races a day, but my mind set was always 'I'm here for the afternoon and I'd rather trade 1-3 and be confident of a good profit than try and trade them all'

s’funny.. ‘cos that’s pretty much my angle these days, however it does depend on how I feel when I sit at my desk but generally my way of thinking is that why should I sit here for up to 4 to 5 hours when I’m CONFIDENT in participating in only a few markets, (maybe only one in a day), where I feel there may be money to be made,

.. to be fair goaty, for me I think you WILL make it but alas I think you may have to go through some toil, (like I have done) with time to get there, if I can make a suggestion, some advice it would be to use micro small stakes, (i.e. £2 stakes) to LEARN an edge

Thanks. I spent today just staring at markets for 2-3hours!! Must have been about 15markets. I was just looking for a Steamer, never saw one... depressing! Not sure I could spend a week and about 15hours looking for a Steamer and maybe finding 2 or 3 it would seem at a guess!?
That does my head in thinking about it!

[Dallas]

I only focused on one set-up which was to avoid all competitive markets, H'caps etc and scalping and only look for uncompetitive (a short priced fav),

This meant for several years when it got to winter and there was no more than 2 cards for days at a time I'd often only trade a max of 3-4 races a day, but my mind set was always 'I'm here for the afternoon and I'd rather trade 1-3 and be confident of a good profit than try and trade them all'

s’funny.. ‘cos that’s pretty much my angle these days, however it does depend on how I feel when I sit at my desk but generally my way of thinking is that why should I sit here for up to 4 to 5 hours when I’m CONFIDENT in participating in only a few markets, (maybe only one in a day), where I feel there may be money to be made,

.. to be fair goaty, for me I think you WILL make it but alas I think you may have to go through some toil, (like I have done) with time to get there, if I can make a suggestion, some advice it would be to use micro small stakes, (i.e. £2 stakes) to LEARN an edge

Thanks. I spent today just staring at markets for 2-3hours!! Must have been about 15markets. I was just looking for a Steamer, never saw one... depressing! Not sure I could spend a week and about 15hours looking for a Steamer and maybe finding 2 or 3 it would seem at a guess!?
That does my head in thinking about it!

How much did you lose during those 2-3 hrs?

Try and think further down the road, when you find 2-3 now you might only make a few quid and it doesn't feel worth while but once you can identify the opportunity with a degree of confidence and can up your stakes picking up £50-£200 a race is easily achievable

[goat68]

s’funny.. ‘cos that’s pretty much my angle these days, however it does depend on how I feel when I sit at my desk but generally my way of thinking is that why should I sit here for up to 4 to 5 hours when I’m CONFIDENT in participating in only a few markets, (maybe only one in a day), where I feel there may be money to be made,

.. to be fair goaty, for me I think you WILL make it but alas I think you may have to go through some toil, (like I have done) with time to get there, if I can make a suggestion, some advice it would be to use micro small stakes, (i.e. £2 stakes) to LEARN an edge

Thanks. I spent today just staring at markets for 2-3hours!! Must have been about 15markets. I was just looking for a Steamer, never saw one... depressing! Not sure I could spend a week and about 15hours looking for a Steamer and maybe finding 2 or 3 it would seem at a guess!?
That does my head in thinking about it!

How much did you lose during those 2-3 hrs?

Try and think further down the road, when you find 2-3 now you might only make a few quid and it doesn't feel worth while but once you can identify the opportunity and can up your stakes picking up £50-£200 a race is a different story

I was watching not trading, so nothing

[Tetras]

There were a few small steams today, but I don't remember any big ones with thousands being chucked at them, though I didn't do much trading this evening.

[goat68]

My head was going doolally staring at those markets and seeing how unpredictable they were. Things were going through my head like there's some conspiracy theory, where Peter and you lot have some top secret information that enables you to win every market..! All those clean sheets I keep seeing screen shots of.......

[Tetras]

A few things I ask / asked, that help me with seeing the bigger picture:

When there's a crossover, it's not 'nothing' that's happening, the market is always testing, will it go higher here, or will it go lower?

If it breaks (up or down), what does that mean? E.g. will it make another horse 1st fav? If this happens, could they reverse positions completely?

Why does the market stick at the same places, but only in some markets? What makes it more sticky, or less sticky?

What do the odds mean in simple terms?

E.g.
1 - 3: very likely to win
3 - 6: pretty likely
6 - 10: on a good day
10 - 15: a chance
15+ not likely

How do the number of horses in each category influence a market and why?

When does a horse move between categories and why?

[Derek27]

A few things I ask / asked, that help me with seeing the bigger picture:

When there's a crossover, it's not 'nothing' that's happening, the market is always testing, will it go higher here, or will it go lower?

If it breaks (up or down), what does that mean? E.g. will it make another horse 1st fav? If this happens, could they reverse positions completely?

Why does the market stick at the same places, but only in some markets? What makes it more sticky, or less sticky?

What do the odds mean in simple terms?

E.g.
1 - 3: very likely to win
3 - 6: pretty likely
6 - 10: on a good day
10 - 15: a chance
15+ not likely

How do the number of horses in each category influence a market and why?

When does a horse move between categories and why?

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.

[goat68]

A few things I ask / asked, that help me with seeing the bigger picture:

When there's a crossover, it's not 'nothing' that's happening, the market is always testing, will it go higher here, or will it go lower?

If it breaks (up or down), what does that mean? E.g. will it make another horse 1st fav? If this happens, could they reverse positions completely?

Why does the market stick at the same places, but only in some markets? What makes it more sticky, or less sticky?

What do the odds mean in simple terms?

E.g.
1 - 3: very likely to win
3 - 6: pretty likely
6 - 10: on a good day
10 - 15: a chance
15+ not likely

How do the number of horses in each category influence a market and why?

When does a horse move between categories and why?

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.

You're implying you can't predict which way a horse is going to move...?

[Tetras]

A few things I ask / asked, that help me with seeing the bigger picture:

When there's a crossover, it's not 'nothing' that's happening, the market is always testing, will it go higher here, or will it go lower?

If it breaks (up or down), what does that mean? E.g. will it make another horse 1st fav? If this happens, could they reverse positions completely?

Why does the market stick at the same places, but only in some markets? What makes it more sticky, or less sticky?

What do the odds mean in simple terms?

E.g.
1 - 3: very likely to win
3 - 6: pretty likely
6 - 10: on a good day
10 - 15: a chance
15+ not likely

How do the number of horses in each category influence a market and why?

When does a horse move between categories and why?

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.

Oops, I probably should have quoted goat68's post, where he said the market looks so unpredictable, that was what I was responding to, but thank you for the answers.

When I trade, those are the questions I'm asking myself, in my head. I don't care about the reasons for a movement, as such, I care about the context of that movement. For example: if a horse moves between categories, there are some pretty specific conditions that need to exist, for that to happen.

The main reason for my early trading losses were not seeing this bigger picture, effectively trading 'blind' to the market.

[goat68]

A few things I ask / asked, that help me with seeing the bigger picture:

When there's a crossover, it's not 'nothing' that's happening, the market is always testing, will it go higher here, or will it go lower?

If it breaks (up or down), what does that mean? E.g. will it make another horse 1st fav? If this happens, could they reverse positions completely?

Why does the market stick at the same places, but only in some markets? What makes it more sticky, or less sticky?

What do the odds mean in simple terms?

E.g.
1 - 3: very likely to win
3 - 6: pretty likely
6 - 10: on a good day
10 - 15: a chance
15+ not likely

How do the number of horses in each category influence a market and why?

When does a horse move between categories and why?

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.

Oops, I probably should have quoted goat68's post, where he said the market looks so unpredictable, that was what I was responding to, but thank you for the answers.

When I trade, those are the questions I'm asking myself, in my head. I don't care about the reasons for a movement, as such, I care about the context of that movement. For example: if a horse moves between categories, there are some pretty specific conditions that need to exist, for that to happen.

The main reason for my early trading losses were not seeing this bigger picture, effectively trading 'blind' to the market.

And of course the 'bigger picture' only shows itself once the 'real money' starts to arrive... So makes sense

[Tetras]

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.

Oops, I probably should have quoted goat68's post, where he said the market looks so unpredictable, that was what I was responding to, but thank you for the answers.

When I trade, those are the questions I'm asking myself, in my head. I don't care about the reasons for a movement, as such, I care about the context of that movement. For example: if a horse moves between categories, there are some pretty specific conditions that need to exist, for that to happen.

The main reason for my early trading losses were not seeing this bigger picture, effectively trading 'blind' to the market.

And of course the 'bigger picture' only shows itself once the 'real money' starts to arrive... So makes sense

Very much so. Before the money comes in the market hasn't even decided which horse belongs in which category, you can see that especially in Irish races, sometimes it even happens 1-2 minutes out. I would say all of my huge losses were due to being unexpectedly caught in one of these events.

[Derek27]

[You're implying you can't predict which way a horse is going to move...?

Don't know what gave you that impression. I'm saying there isn't one single reason for why a horse moves in a particular direction, that fits every occasion.

[Morbius]

A few things I ask / asked, that help me with seeing the bigger picture:

When there's a crossover, it's not 'nothing' that's happening, the market is always testing, will it go higher here, or will it go lower?

If it breaks (up or down), what does that mean? E.g. will it make another horse 1st fav? If this happens, could they reverse positions completely?

Why does the market stick at the same places, but only in some markets? What makes it more sticky, or less sticky?

What do the odds mean in simple terms?

E.g.
1 - 3: very likely to win
3 - 6: pretty likely
6 - 10: on a good day
10 - 15: a chance
15+ not likely

How do the number of horses in each category influence a market and why?

When does a horse move between categories and why?

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.

Oops, I probably should have quoted goat68's post, where he said the market looks so unpredictable, that was what I was responding to, but thank you for the answers.

When I trade, those are the questions I'm asking myself, in my head. I don't care about the reasons for a movement, as such, I care about the context of that movement. For example: if a horse moves between categories, there are some pretty specific conditions that need to exist, for that to happen.

The main reason for my early trading losses were not seeing this bigger picture, effectively trading 'blind' to the market.

Tetras... Just to clear up a misunderstanding... When you said MOVES BETWEEN CATEGORIES did you mean an alteration in the betting position... Ie.. Second fav becomes third fav etc etc

[Morbius]

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.

Oops, I probably should have quoted goat68's post, where he said the market looks so unpredictable, that was what I was responding to, but thank you for the answers.

When I trade, those are the questions I'm asking myself, in my head. I don't care about the reasons for a movement, as such, I care about the context of that movement. For example: if a horse moves between categories, there are some pretty specific conditions that need to exist, for that to happen.

The main reason for my early trading losses were not seeing this bigger picture, effectively trading 'blind' to the market.

And of course the 'bigger picture' only shows itself once the 'real money' starts to arrive... So makes sense

May be wrong but I don't think that's what Derek meant by "bigger picture". I don't think he meant an increase in liquidity as the market advances towards the start but more to do with a deeper understanding of the market as a whole

[Tetras]

Most of your questions are impossible to answer because there are a million things going on that have a cumulative effect. What causes a horse to move in a particular direction may be very different from the cause of another similar event.

But as for what the odds mean in simple terms, the odds divided into 100 gives you the percentage chance that the market implies. 2.0 represents a 50% chance, 3.0 a 33.33% and 8.0 is a 12.5% chance.

Oops, I probably should have quoted goat68's post, where he said the market looks so unpredictable, that was what I was responding to, but thank you for the answers.

When I trade, those are the questions I'm asking myself, in my head. I don't care about the reasons for a movement, as such, I care about the context of that movement. For example: if a horse moves between categories, there are some pretty specific conditions that need to exist, for that to happen.

The main reason for my early trading losses were not seeing this bigger picture, effectively trading 'blind' to the market.

Tetras... Just to clear up a misunderstanding... When you said MOVES BETWEEN CATEGORIES did you mean an alteration in the betting position... Ie.. Second fav becomes third fav etc etc

It could mean this in some markets, but I meant the simplified way of looking at the odds. For example: a horse moving from "very likely to win" to "pretty likely".

For a horse to move between categories is, from a punting perspective, often pretty significant and the kind of stuff that pops up on TV. At the lower-end it takes a lot of money, if nothing else.