Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

The Silk Run wrote:
Sat Apr 02, 2022 9:38 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sat Apr 02, 2022 9:30 pm
So a nice result for March, dogs exceeded expectations, horses had a bit of a drawdown mid-month and were a bit weak.
Screenshot 2022-04-02 at 21.28.23.png
Kool. STICK with the GH's G .Very well done .....
Thank you Silk Run
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sat Apr 02, 2022 9:30 pm
So a nice result for March, dogs exceeded expectations, horses had a bit of a drawdown mid-month and were a bit weak.
Screenshot 2022-04-02 at 21.28.23.png
Well done Goat,

Looks like you've broken the back of it
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Might have to start withdrawing money soon at this rate, that's a weird feeling !
Anbell
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Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

goat68 wrote:
Sat Apr 02, 2022 9:30 pm
So a nice result for March, dogs exceeded expectations, horses had a bit of a drawdown mid-month and were a bit weak.
Screenshot 2022-04-02 at 21.28.23.png
Wow. Amazing.

I recommend taking a deep breath and dont change anything for another month.
eatyourgreens
Posts: 243
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am

Anbell wrote:
Sun Apr 03, 2022 4:48 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Apr 02, 2022 9:30 pm
So a nice result for March, dogs exceeded expectations, horses had a bit of a drawdown mid-month and were a bit weak.
Screenshot 2022-04-02 at 21.28.23.png
Wow. Amazing.

I recommend taking a deep breath and dont change anything for another month.
Underpants and socks spring to mind ! :roll:
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Anbell wrote:
Sun Apr 03, 2022 4:48 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Apr 02, 2022 9:30 pm
So a nice result for March, dogs exceeded expectations, horses had a bit of a drawdown mid-month and were a bit weak.
Screenshot 2022-04-02 at 21.28.23.png
Wow. Amazing.

I recommend taking a deep breath and dont change anything for another month.
Yeah, dogs definitely unchanged. Horses i've done a small tweak, it's harder to tweak as I can't backtest reliably as i'm now "in the data", so any small tweaks I use live stats feedback. The horses were showing a matching rate that wasn't quite what I think it should be, so i've tweaked a param to hopefully bring that inline..
Korattt
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Goaty, well done mate, tell me, what’s your programming background without trawling through the thread & what does the prog you picked up from Liam offer you that BA automation doesn’t?, as you can probably tell I’m totally alien to automation, can’t seem to grasp it all, maybe to do with other stuff going on but willing to learn
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Korattt wrote:
Tue Apr 05, 2022 2:36 pm
Goaty, well done mate, tell me, what’s your programming background without trawling through the thread & what does the prog you picked up from Liam offer you that BA automation doesn’t?, as you can probably tell I’m totally alien to automation, can’t seem to grasp it all, maybe to do with other stuff going on but willing to learn
So I have several decades of programming experience (COBOL, PLI, C, C++, Java, scripting, Python,...), so it's second nature to me.
Liam's betfairlightweight and flumine, now part of betcode-org can be found here: https://github.com/betcode-org/betfair
They are basically Python wrappers to the Betfair betting and streaming APIs.

The difference between BA Guardian automation and bflw/Flumine, is basically the intended consumer, they both are probably capable of the same/similar things, but BA is more for the non-programmer, offering an easy interface for quickly putting together and running sets of pre-canned bot rules to achieve your automation.
Flumine offers the programmer guru a set of Python wrapper classes/modules which gives you a more betfair API level control to create your own bot.
Korattt
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thanks Goaty, I’ve tried but it’s way over my head
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

April so far:
- Dogs fantastic
- Horses letting down a bit, but improving
- One nasty failed hedge cost -£99 ! (..cookie crumbles..)
- Some strategy execution improvements, hopefully keep actual closer to besthedge
Screenshot 2022-04-10 at 21.31.54.png
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Sun Apr 10, 2022 9:35 pm
April so far:
Looking good Grasshopper. ;)
Whether or not you want a cleaner close might depend on how much they cost you vs the longer term benefit. They'll take 20% off you anyway so maybe better that you're the paying 20%+ yourself rather than via PC, and keeping your eye on reducing future costs while your numbers are small enough to affect.

...I guess you're starting to build up the stakes now to find the point where you break it?
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Apr 10, 2022 10:52 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sun Apr 10, 2022 9:35 pm
April so far:
Looking good Grasshopper. ;)
Whether or not you want a cleaner close might depend on how much they cost you vs the longer term benefit. They'll take 20% off you anyway so maybe better that you're the paying 20%+ yourself rather than via PC, and keeping your eye on reducing future costs while your numbers are small enough to affect.

...I guess you're starting to build up the stakes now to find the point where you break it?
Im still trying to get the horses right, so I understand where the value is.
But yes, then i want to dial a few params to add some known variance to increase the grprofit to gen comm %.. i need to judge where i am at the moment, about 12% i think.
As you say id rather 20% on my own decent profit, rather than a PC tax !
It doesn't pay to have a high win% i think, due to the implied commission meaning it basically gets halved..
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

The dogs seem to win too much, but the horses look like being a better generator!
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:12 am
It doesn't pay to have a high win% i think, due to the implied commission meaning it basically gets halved..
On Uk stuff it doesn't matter much, other's gains are taken to be 3%, yours at 2%.....so you either get half of 3% or half of 2%.

But on the Aus it's different because your gains are paying commisson at 6,7,8+% and you get creditted with half, but implied comms assumes the other side is only on a 3% rate, and you get half.
.
Screenshot_3.jpg
.
You do hear it said though that the best way to have a bigger net is to just have a bigger gross, so all the time spent on the jiggery pokery might be better spent on just having a better strategy. My old man used to say he wanted to be the guy who paid the most tax and get the point :)
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goat68
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Apr 11, 2022 3:10 am
goat68 wrote:
Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:12 am
It doesn't pay to have a high win% i think, due to the implied commission meaning it basically gets halved..
On Uk stuff it doesn't matter much, other's gains are taken to be 3%, yours at 2%.....so you either get half of 3% or half of 2%.

But on the Aus it's different because your gains are paying commisson at 6,7,8+% and you get creditted with half, but implied comms assumes the other side is only on a 3% rate, and you get half.
.
Screenshot_3.jpg
.
You do hear it said though that the best way to have a bigger net is to just have a bigger gross, so all the time spent on the jiggery pokery might be better spent on just having a better strategy. My old man used to say he wanted to be the guy who paid the most tax and get the point :)
So bigger gross, you mean just bet more and bigger and dont worry about 20% PC jiggery pokery...?
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