Trading What I see !?

[wearthefoxhat]

It doesn't pay to have a high win% i think, due to the implied commission meaning it basically gets halved..

On Uk stuff it doesn't matter much, other's gains are taken to be 3%, yours at 2%.....so you either get half of 3% or half of 2%.

But on the Aus it's different because your gains are paying commisson at 6,7,8+% and you get creditted with half, but implied comms assumes the other side is only on a 3% rate, and you get half.
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You do hear it said though that the best way to have a bigger net is to just have a bigger gross, so all the time spent on the jiggery pokery might be better spent on just having a better strategy. My old man used to say he wanted to be the guy who paid the most tax and get the point

So bigger gross, you mean just bet more and bigger and dont worry about 20% PC jiggery pokery...?

It's the 40% & 60% ones to "worry" about. As Shaun intimates, it's a nice problem to have.

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BFPremR.png

[goat68]

On Uk stuff it doesn't matter much, other's gains are taken to be 3%, yours at 2%.....so you either get half of 3% or half of 2%.

But on the Aus it's different because your gains are paying commisson at 6,7,8+% and you get creditted with half, but implied comms assumes the other side is only on a 3% rate, and you get half.
.
Screenshot_3.jpg
.
You do hear it said though that the best way to have a bigger net is to just have a bigger gross, so all the time spent on the jiggery pokery might be better spent on just having a better strategy. My old man used to say he wanted to be the guy who paid the most tax and get the point

So bigger gross, you mean just bet more and bigger and dont worry about 20% PC jiggery pokery...?

It's the 40% & 60% ones to "worry" about. As Shaun intimates, it's a nice problem to have.


PCsum.png

BFPremR.png

So basically that's when you've profited over £250,000, and to avoid that you've got to generate over 40% commission, so realistically I don't have to worry about that for many years !!

[ShaunWhite]

So basically that's when you've profited over £250,000, and to avoid that you've got to generate over 40% commission, so realistically I don't have to worry about that for many years !!

Yes but small totals are easier to do something about. Eg the guys who racked up big numbers before PC was introduced were screwed, but anyone starting after (2010) at least has the opportunity to think about it. And although 250k seems miles away using the techniques you're using can strike gold and 100 a day can turn onto 1000. That's the 'danger' automating rather than manually where the growth is probably more predictable.

[goat68]

So basically that's when you've profited over £250,000, and to avoid that you've got to generate over 40% commission, so realistically I don't have to worry about that for many years !!

Yes but small totals are easier to do something about. Eg the guys who racked up big numbers before PC was introduced were screwed, but anyone starting after (2010) at least has the opportunity to think about it. And although 250k seems miles away using the techniques you're using can strike gold and 100 a day can turn onto 1000. That's the 'danger' automating rather than manually where the growth is probably more predictable.

Wow £1000 a day

So aiming for 40% gen.comm to gr.profit is a bit scary, as it basically means having the balls for some decent variance! one way would probably be to not "hedge" (Gulp!)

[ShaunWhite]

Variance something that becomes more bearable with a track record and confidence. Yeah 1k seems insane but 7 figures is 3k so there's people doing it. And they haven't got 2 heads so who knows.

[goat68]

Variance something that becomes more bearable with a track record and confidence. Yeah 1k seems insane but 7 figures is 3k so there's people doing it. And they haven't got 2 heads so who knows.

Thought i'd do a quick backtest comparison of dogs bot Hedge vs NoHedge, and I achieve 40% with no hedge, but need big boy pants to handle the variance, but interesting chart, a 6week period:

Screenshot 2022-04-11 at 19.29.18.png

[arch4672]

Variance something that becomes more bearable with a track record and confidence. Yeah 1k seems insane but 7 figures is 3k so there's people doing it. And they haven't got 2 heads so who knows.

Thought i'd do a quick backtest comparison of dogs bot Hedge vs NoHedge, and I achieve 40% with no hedge, but need big boy pants to handle the variance, but interesting chart, a 6week period:
Screenshot 2022-04-11 at 19.29.18.png

You don't have to go from full hedge to no hedge. You could build up gradually to it by hedging 90% and then when you've got used to the variance go to 80% (or whatever) until you get to 0%. I know in the long run not hedging is likely to be more profitable, but I can understand why you'd want to from a peace of mind perspective - what I'd call the 'can I sleep easily at night' test. I personally don't hedge, but that's more because it keeps the code simpler.

By the way well done, I for one never had any doubt that you would eventually start making some money...

[goat68]

Variance something that becomes more bearable with a track record and confidence. Yeah 1k seems insane but 7 figures is 3k so there's people doing it. And they haven't got 2 heads so who knows.

Thought i'd do a quick backtest comparison of dogs bot Hedge vs NoHedge, and I achieve 40% with no hedge, but need big boy pants to handle the variance, but interesting chart, a 6week period:
Screenshot 2022-04-11 at 19.29.18.png

You don't have to go from full hedge to no hedge. You could build up gradually to it by hedging 90% and then when you've got used to the variance go to 80% (or whatever) until you get to 0%. I know in the long run not hedging is likely to be more profitable, but I can understand why you'd want to from a peace of mind perspective - what I'd call the 'can I sleep easily at night' test. I personally don't hedge, but that's more because it keeps the code simpler.

By the way well done, I for one never had any doubt that you would eventually start making some money...

thanks and thanks for the tip

[goat68]

Going to pause the UK horses trial bot, as it's not working, going to re-think that one
Going to capture more US horses data, then re-evaluate bot for that

[goat68]

Doing some backtesting of current live AUS horses bot on several months from last year, this is what I like to see in my analysis, profit across all prices and all time periods, nice
PROFIT TIME:
Profit Time: 0- 1 : 3.74 : 23
Profit Time: 1- 2 : 23.90 : 167
Profit Time: 2- 3 : 14.27 : 168
Profit Time: 3- 4 : 32.02 : 227
Profit Time: 4- 5 : 85.02 : 315
Profit Time: 5- 6 : 42.31 : 194
Profit Time: 6- 7 : 38.40 : 155
Profit Time: 7- 8 : 5.75 : 124
Profit Time: 8- 9 : 27.38 : 118
Profit Time: 9-10 : 21.41 : 93
Profit Time: 10-11 : 26.42 : 92
Profit Time: 11-12 : 19.99 : 63
Profit Time: 12-13 : 13.38 : 61
Profit Time: 13-14 : 14.50 : 52
Profit Time: 14-15 : 0.00 : 0
Profit Time: 15-16 : 0.00 : 0
Profit Time: 16-17 : 0.00 : 0
Profit Time: 17-18 : 0.00 : 0
Profit Time: 18-19 : 0.00 : 0
Profit Time: 19-20 : 0.00 : 0
PROFIT PRICE:
Profit Price: 0.0-5.0 : 72.52 : 158
Profit Price: 5.0-10.0 : 103.29 : 392
Profit Price: 10.0-15.0 : 67.15 : 430
Profit Price: 15.0-20.0 : 22.05 : 215
Profit Price: 20.0-25.0 : 33.90 : 183
Profit Price: 25.0-30.0 : 12.54 : 118
Profit Price: 30.0-35.0 : 15.42 : 128
Profit Price: 35.0-40.0 : 19.80 : 88
Profit Price: 40.0-45.0 : 10.03 : 62
Profit Price: 45.0-50.0 : 7.87 : 37
Profit Price: 50.0-55.0 : 3.91 : 41
Profit Price: 55.0-60.0 : 0.00 : 0
Profit Price: 60.0-65.0 : 0.00 : 0
Profit Price: 65.0-70.0 : 0.00 : 0
Profit Price: 70.0-75.0 : 0.00 : 0
Profit Price: 75.0-80.0 : 0.00 : 0
Profit Price: 80.0-85.0 : 0.00 : 0
Profit Price: 85.0-90.0 : 0.00 : 0
Profit Price: 90.0-95.0 : 0.00 : 0
Profit Price: 95.0-100.0 : 0.00 : 0

[PeterLe]

Variance something that becomes more bearable with a track record and confidence. Yeah 1k seems insane but 7 figures is 3k so there's people doing it. And they haven't got 2 heads so who knows.

Goat has done very well, but he's just starting his journey. The next bigger challenge will be scaling whilst maintaining matching levels, that's the biggest challenge and is a whole new ball game.
Once you go down this rabbit hole, you have to really intimately understand the market mechanics and matching levels is a whole new science in itself.
Re the £90k Month guys; they might only have one head Shaun, but they are SUPER smart! (and in my experience being smart isn't enough, you have to think about things differently too. A rare and subtle combination)

[ShaunWhite]

Variance something that becomes more bearable with a track record and confidence. Yeah 1k seems insane but 7 figures is 3k so there's people doing it. And they haven't got 2 heads so who knows.

Goat has done very well, but he's just starting his journey. The next bigger challenge will be scaling whilst maintaining matching levels, that's the biggest challenge and is a whole new ball game.
Once you go down this rabbit hole, you have to really intimately understand the market mechanics and matching levels is a whole new science in itself.
Re the £90k Month guys; they might only have one head Shaun, but they are SUPER smart! (and in my experience being smart isn't enough, you have to think about things differently too. A rare and subtle combination)

Yep Peter, smart guys and different thinkers but still just flesh and blood. So with the right guidance, experience and enough effort, decent results (granted maybe not 90k/mo) are quite possible. And let's face it, although it's hard it's relatively straightforward compared to complex financial instruments, brain surgery or particle physics so not beyond the realms of possibility.

I dunno, I just feel that when you start something you need at least some faith you'll actually be able to do it otherwise you might as well do something else. But I haven't met a trader yet who I found intellectually intimidating or thought was special, they're just guys who know things you don't know yet.

[ShaunWhite]

...btw Peter I'm not from the "you'll get it if you dream hard enough crowd", that's bs. Afterall most sucessful people in business, sport, the arts are there by a large slice of luck, ie right time, right place, right contacts. But with trading it's entirely in your own hands and that improves your chances no end.

[Korattt]

as a side note, any of you guys on here actually make a living purely on BA Guardian automation alone?, is it actually possible?

[ShaunWhite]

as a side note, any of you guys on here actually make a living purely on BA Guardian automation alone?, is it actually possible?

I don't personally but its possible. The thing is Guardian only does the transaction execution, that's the simple part and IMO the important stuff is the analysis, back testing and post betting analysis none of which Guardian does. So it comes down to how much effort you put into that part yourself. When I started with automation the aim was to build a system in which BA was being used as the transaction processing engine for a wider system, via Excel integration. And the scope just crept once I realised I needed better data than it could deliver and a more responsive TPE too.

Transferring rock solid manual strategies should easy enough though, but with no data, no way to test anything, or ways to analyse results.... and a blank page it'll be a tough ask.