Trading What I see !?
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
Bots are usually a lot easier, and profitable, if you simply let them find value rather than worrying about how to close a value bet without giving that value back and more. You should look at both sides of your current bot and see if you're leaking profits by closing or even just to check if you actually get value on your opening bets.
This week's bot results:
57 markets
Strike rate: 33%
Net: -£3.20
Rubbish week, and this was just my single bot I thought would be better.
I'm convinced trying to employ a bot based on standard strategy triggers, breakouts, trend change, vwap crossover, ..are all -ev, even on selected markets, as you're always late to the party, which exposes you to a poor risk/reward.
My bot is a variation on Dallas's shared vwap crossover.
Anyway, new bot required....!
57 markets
Strike rate: 33%
Net: -£3.20
Rubbish week, and this was just my single bot I thought would be better.
I'm convinced trying to employ a bot based on standard strategy triggers, breakouts, trend change, vwap crossover, ..are all -ev, even on selected markets, as you're always late to the party, which exposes you to a poor risk/reward.
My bot is a variation on Dallas's shared vwap crossover.
Anyway, new bot required....!
Hello..me too trying to trading on horse racing..it s very very difficult (sorry for poor english)..i did trading for a living from 2005 to 2010..then the market changed ,my edge is disappeared,so i stopped used betfair.
10 years Later..
Hellooo..
I want to go back trading..on uk horse racing..
I m working hard to find An edge..on uk racing..imo,the only market that have remained easy to trade are australian horse racing,and Nba live..why?i think because british sleep at that Moment..those market are not very efficient...perhaps f1 live with dtt from here,i should try.
...so
Going back to what i said..
at the moment i cannot trade without looking at trainer jockey and weight..i am not an expert in horse racing.absolutely not..i have only learnt something over the years..every trade i open is when i think that a drift on a horse cannot go any further..and then i look for a second horse to trade that has had a drift that is, in my opinion, a likely upper limit..at that point i will back against trend on this second horse that has gone into drift(1 2minute before the start)..this is my first strategy.
my second strategy is to back in on a steamer that has gone too far beyond what was thinkable by me...if it has been steaming for that long, then there is something that the backers know and the layers don't see. for example, mamilius yesterday and desert boots today...
or scalping (back to lay 2, 3 ticks) a slightly drift ,near the turning point, on kingscote s horse...
the idea is that some trainers have a good chunk of punters who will bet them under any circumstances. so they have less room to manoeuvre.(kingscote horse is another matter..if kingscote gets on a horse it is because he sees a good reason ti do It.he cant drift too Much..what better opportunity to reverse the price at turning point price?)
the other idea is that if something is too excessive, then there is something that the backers or layers are missing...follow the trend, in this case..yesterday mamilius from 7 to 4.
With this strategy,is not difficult insert a stop loss near around my backed bet..because if the price of the horse continue the movement then i wrong my opinion..immediately stop loss.
Simplicistic example.. jhonston, Nichols,is not the same that mullohand...a fav horse with mullohand and a apprentice jockey,1.20 that volatility will be' very very high..
Other example ..be' careful to trade an horse of appleby.large movements of prices will arrive..lol
The problem is that I want building a strategy based on money flow just by looking at the ladder..i don t want open racing post !because racing post is too questionable.. I would like to have a more scientific trading structure, I would prefer my ideas to come from just observing the ladder..do you have any suggestions on what to look ,on the ladder,at when prices reach new bottom or tops that have never been seen before? At the Moment i trade this max and min,watching racing post card..i don t like it...but trading on the money flow ,for the moment,is so much hard
Think you for the patience with me and with me english
10 years Later..
Hellooo..
I want to go back trading..on uk horse racing..
I m working hard to find An edge..on uk racing..imo,the only market that have remained easy to trade are australian horse racing,and Nba live..why?i think because british sleep at that Moment..those market are not very efficient...perhaps f1 live with dtt from here,i should try.
...so
Going back to what i said..
at the moment i cannot trade without looking at trainer jockey and weight..i am not an expert in horse racing.absolutely not..i have only learnt something over the years..every trade i open is when i think that a drift on a horse cannot go any further..and then i look for a second horse to trade that has had a drift that is, in my opinion, a likely upper limit..at that point i will back against trend on this second horse that has gone into drift(1 2minute before the start)..this is my first strategy.
my second strategy is to back in on a steamer that has gone too far beyond what was thinkable by me...if it has been steaming for that long, then there is something that the backers know and the layers don't see. for example, mamilius yesterday and desert boots today...
or scalping (back to lay 2, 3 ticks) a slightly drift ,near the turning point, on kingscote s horse...
the idea is that some trainers have a good chunk of punters who will bet them under any circumstances. so they have less room to manoeuvre.(kingscote horse is another matter..if kingscote gets on a horse it is because he sees a good reason ti do It.he cant drift too Much..what better opportunity to reverse the price at turning point price?)
the other idea is that if something is too excessive, then there is something that the backers or layers are missing...follow the trend, in this case..yesterday mamilius from 7 to 4.
With this strategy,is not difficult insert a stop loss near around my backed bet..because if the price of the horse continue the movement then i wrong my opinion..immediately stop loss.
Simplicistic example.. jhonston, Nichols,is not the same that mullohand...a fav horse with mullohand and a apprentice jockey,1.20 that volatility will be' very very high..
Other example ..be' careful to trade an horse of appleby.large movements of prices will arrive..lol
The problem is that I want building a strategy based on money flow just by looking at the ladder..i don t want open racing post !because racing post is too questionable.. I would like to have a more scientific trading structure, I would prefer my ideas to come from just observing the ladder..do you have any suggestions on what to look ,on the ladder,at when prices reach new bottom or tops that have never been seen before? At the Moment i trade this max and min,watching racing post card..i don t like it...but trading on the money flow ,for the moment,is so much hard
Think you for the patience with me and with me english
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Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
Bet Angel TV is a very good place to start, especially this list of videos.vhdgkl wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 6:56 pmThe problem is that I want building a strategy based on money flow just by looking at the ladder..i don t want open racing post !because racing post is too questionable.. I would like to have a more scientific trading structure, I would prefer my ideas to come from just observing the ladder..do you have any suggestions on what to look ,on the ladder,at when prices reach new bottom or tops that have never been seen before? At the Moment i trade this max and min,watching racing post card..i don t like it...but trading on the money flow ,for the moment,is so much hard
Think you for the patience with me and with me english
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-w9IG3 ... ZUDAot_BoD
Good luck
Thank you for the list of videos..Trader Pat wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:29 pmBet Angel TV is a very good place to start, especially this list of videos.vhdgkl wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 6:56 pmThe problem is that I want building a strategy based on money flow just by looking at the ladder..i don t want open racing post !because racing post is too questionable.. I would like to have a more scientific trading structure, I would prefer my ideas to come from just observing the ladder..do you have any suggestions on what to look ,on the ladder,at when prices reach new bottom or tops that have never been seen before? At the Moment i trade this max and min,watching racing post card..i don t like it...but trading on the money flow ,for the moment,is so much hard
Think you for the patience with me and with me english
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-w9IG3 ... ZUDAot_BoD
Good luck
I m watching Lots of them....with english subtitle..lol
And many will still look at it.
I watch the videos and stop every second,to understand every aspect ...i should trade 10 to 5 minutes before the off,much simple...no..i want learn to trade the last 5 minutes before the off.
Is becoming a challenge for me
Ex fulltimer? That must be some contrast, the markets then and now
In short I'd just say to look deeper into the psychology behind the markets and you'll find no shortage of opportunity, be it on racing or elsewhere, should make reading order flow make more sense if that's how you want to trade.
Like they say, for every price action there is an equal market overreaction
Or something along those lines. Best of luck.It hasn't changed that much...15 years ago the market looked like what it is now in Australian horse racing...ok, there were less gaps to get into, but the level of skill required to earn money in the current Australian horse racing market is what was required 15 years ago in the British horse market....Kai wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:59 pmEx fulltimer? That must be some contrast, the markets then and now
In short I'd just say to look deeper into the psychology behind the markets and you'll find no shortage of opportunity, be it on racing or elsewhere, should make reading order flow make more sense if that's how you want to trade.
Like they say, for every price action there is an equal market overreaction
It's just that the easy money has gradually been taken and everything is more efficient today.
Anyway,it all seems so perfect to me,as if every overreaction was absorbed by a very skilled market mover..but ok.no doubt I'll try.
I'm trying to see where my emotions would lead me to stop loss if I opened a position at some point.
For example, if there is a lot of money exchanging at one point, say 2.86, and a drift starts...where would I sell totally panicked? probably 3.2 3.25...I am trying to see then whether to enter some points because they could be panic points where the price rebounds....
I'm trying to think, but it all seems so perfect and difficult.
It does seem to be efficient, however there are many people on here making good money from UK racing, just look at what Peter makes for example...vhdgkl wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:55 amIt hasn't changed that much...15 years ago the market looked like what it is now in Australian horse racing...ok, there were less gaps to get into, but the level of skill required to earn money in the current Australian horse racing market is what was required 15 years ago in the British horse market....Kai wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:59 pmEx fulltimer? That must be some contrast, the markets then and now
In short I'd just say to look deeper into the psychology behind the markets and you'll find no shortage of opportunity, be it on racing or elsewhere, should make reading order flow make more sense if that's how you want to trade.
Like they say, for every price action there is an equal market overreaction
It's just that the easy money has gradually been taken and everything is more efficient today.
Anyway,it all seems so perfect to me,as if every overreaction was absorbed by a very skilled market mover..but ok.no doubt I'll try.
I'm trying to see where my emotions would lead me to stop loss if I opened a position at some point.
For example, if there is a lot of money exchanging at one point, say 2.86, and a drift starts...where would I sell totally panicked? probably 3.2 3.25...I am trying to see then whether to enter some points because they could be panic points where the price rebounds....
I'm trying to think, but it all seems so perfect and difficult.
There are edges that never go away because they result from people's behavior and it will never be efficient, and there are temporary edges that you can't keep indefinite. Any edge is good, but if you are going to stay in the game as long as possible, you must prioritize your efforts in constantly discovering and optimizing the first type of them.
Well, it may seem perfect and efficient in the long run, but the short term volatility is ridiculous at times on many markets, so it's down to us to work out the details so we can catch some of this volatility. I always encourage people to look at the bigger picture and the markets as a whole, outside of their one invididual market, to try and find what they have in common etc.vhdgkl wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:55 amIt hasn't changed that much...15 years ago the market looked like what it is now in Australian horse racing...ok, there were less gaps to get into, but the level of skill required to earn money in the current Australian horse racing market is what was required 15 years ago in the British horse market....Kai wrote: ↑Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:59 pmEx fulltimer? That must be some contrast, the markets then and now
In short I'd just say to look deeper into the psychology behind the markets and you'll find no shortage of opportunity, be it on racing or elsewhere, should make reading order flow make more sense if that's how you want to trade.
Like they say, for every price action there is an equal market overreaction
It's just that the easy money has gradually been taken and everything is more efficient today.
Anyway,it all seems so perfect to me,as if every overreaction was absorbed by a very skilled market mover..but ok.no doubt I'll try.
Markets haven't changed much in 15 years?
Not sure about that one, seen some very old footage and heard many stories from all sorts of older fulltimers, the profitability threshold overall was apparently very low and they're all complaining that the good old days are long gone (including Psychoff). Heard the same from arbers and those that abused a certain niche elsewhere, everything has gotten progressively harder and more competitive, as you'd expect Even in the these short 5 years that I've been active and fulltime the threshold has considerably risen on basically every market I looked at. But as a trader ideally you're supposed to get better every year and keep improving your overall trading skillset to stay ahead of the curve, so I guess it does almost balance out.
Let's say there are a lot of areas where you can earn money...I agree.
For example in live football the price movements are still too much linked to the passing of time, and still too little to the dynamics of the game...I can imagine that you can profit from this aspect, for example by trading the under over.
You can profit by opening a South African race in the last 2 minutes before the start and wait for that one time out of 10 that a very high amount bet appears, to trade the fact that the guy wants that bet to be matched and will therefore accept a very low odds....
You can wait for those 2 days a month when repetitive and largely fallacious behaviour is created on greyhound market.
I can mark football pitches that become a quagmire when it rains a lot because they don't drain well...watch the weather forecast and listen to the news (not for premier league) on the pitches...when the opportunity arises back on the under ..the Siena stadium for example.
And a thousand other things you can do.
I completely agree that there are many opportunities...but let's say that it's not for me...I'm not keen on the idea.
I love trading in the final 5 minutes prerace, when the bulk of the liquidity comes in..I think it is the most difficult market that exists on betfair..but solving this puzzle is too exciting for me..
So much so that I do trading in practice mode not because I'm afraid of losing money..but because I don't need to put money to have fun..I have fun like crazy even in practice mode.
I like it too much.
Tomorrow I'll make an outline of the factors that I think are important..I'll write them down in a notebook,and make a note of how the market reacts when those situations arise.
I really like to have a general model of the various races..so I take a lot of factors into account..
But if you don't recommend this way, because it is too chaotic, I can do it the other way around...I just take one aspect and try it again and again until I try to understand in which situations it works...for example I take the top and bottom of a range and back at the high and lay at the bottom...or vice versa, back at the bottom and lay at the top....and then with time understand when it works and when it doesn't...but I am not very inspired by this...do you suggest this second way rather than a more sophisticated model?
For example in live football the price movements are still too much linked to the passing of time, and still too little to the dynamics of the game...I can imagine that you can profit from this aspect, for example by trading the under over.
You can profit by opening a South African race in the last 2 minutes before the start and wait for that one time out of 10 that a very high amount bet appears, to trade the fact that the guy wants that bet to be matched and will therefore accept a very low odds....
You can wait for those 2 days a month when repetitive and largely fallacious behaviour is created on greyhound market.
I can mark football pitches that become a quagmire when it rains a lot because they don't drain well...watch the weather forecast and listen to the news (not for premier league) on the pitches...when the opportunity arises back on the under ..the Siena stadium for example.
And a thousand other things you can do.
I completely agree that there are many opportunities...but let's say that it's not for me...I'm not keen on the idea.
I love trading in the final 5 minutes prerace, when the bulk of the liquidity comes in..I think it is the most difficult market that exists on betfair..but solving this puzzle is too exciting for me..
So much so that I do trading in practice mode not because I'm afraid of losing money..but because I don't need to put money to have fun..I have fun like crazy even in practice mode.
I like it too much.
Tomorrow I'll make an outline of the factors that I think are important..I'll write them down in a notebook,and make a note of how the market reacts when those situations arise.
I really like to have a general model of the various races..so I take a lot of factors into account..
But if you don't recommend this way, because it is too chaotic, I can do it the other way around...I just take one aspect and try it again and again until I try to understand in which situations it works...for example I take the top and bottom of a range and back at the high and lay at the bottom...or vice versa, back at the bottom and lay at the top....and then with time understand when it works and when it doesn't...but I am not very inspired by this...do you suggest this second way rather than a more sophisticated model?
agree 100%. by using automation you would literally free yourself up to observe other events and form further automation strategies. The combo of BA -> BF literally could be your goldmine, if you are able to translate that pattern recognition knowledge down onto *paper*.
for anyone starting out on this journey, I thoughroughly recommned using diagrams.net in chrome (https://chrome.google.com/webstore/deta ... d?hl=en-GB) in order to map out your plan. using a tool such as this will allow you to design your automation in a modular/considered fashion. and as a side benefit, you will find that you can re-use parts of the diagram(s) for other automation projects, thus alerting you to the parts of code that can be re-used.
anyway, many ways to skin a cat... enjoy what you're doing whichever way.