Trading What I see !?
Just been doing some "inplay" thinking... take this scenario:
- Typical flat 10 horse 1m race
- 2furlongs left horse1 is 6 lengths clear, price is 1.2
Is that "value" or not?
The answer has to be you haven't got a clue! Unless you really know how good horse2,3,4,5 are doing and have left in them from "fundamentals"
You could assume 1.2 is neutral value and offer 1.5 for 5 seconds, but 5seconds later horses 2,3 may close sharply, and at that time 1.5 is now no longer value.... So with my "crystal ball" 1.2 was in fact great Lay value, as fundamentally horses 2,3 had it in them...
So it all comes down to "fundamentals" really...?
- Typical flat 10 horse 1m race
- 2furlongs left horse1 is 6 lengths clear, price is 1.2
Is that "value" or not?
The answer has to be you haven't got a clue! Unless you really know how good horse2,3,4,5 are doing and have left in them from "fundamentals"
You could assume 1.2 is neutral value and offer 1.5 for 5 seconds, but 5seconds later horses 2,3 may close sharply, and at that time 1.5 is now no longer value.... So with my "crystal ball" 1.2 was in fact great Lay value, as fundamentally horses 2,3 had it in them...
So it all comes down to "fundamentals" really...?
One of the markets I think Peter has said to be careful in the past, is with late withdrawals, because the market can go crazy, but in-play that's where a lot of the opportunity is (movement, I mean). In the example you gave, you're unlikely to get any of that stake out (not before you know what's going to happen), so you'd need a reason to get involved. It doesn't matter what the reason is.goat68 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 9:30 pmJust been doing some "inplay" thinking... take this scenario:
- Typical flat 10 horse 1m race
- 2furlongs left horse1 is 6 lengths clear, price is 1.2
Is that "value" or not?
The answer has to be you haven't got a clue! Unless you really know how good horse2,3,4,5 are doing and have left in them from "fundamentals"
You could assume 1.2 is neutral value and offer 1.5 for 5 seconds, but 5seconds later horses 2,3 may close sharply, and at that time 1.5 is now no longer value.... So with my "crystal ball" 1.2 was in fact great Lay value, as fundamentally horses 2,3 had it in them...
So it all comes down to "fundamentals" really...?
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Don't get hung up on what you see as the differences are between manual trading and 'value' betting. Looking for difference rather than commonality is a manual traders mindset.
When you've traded some more you'll see that all 'trading' is value betting under the skin either by design or accident. When you back at -3mins and lay at post time and make 50p or whatever, those bets do actually run, 'hedging' doesn't make them vanish it's just yet another bet. And anyone that's betted knows there's only one way placing bets can be done profitably. Think about how manual traders do it by happy accident and you'll see how how people do it by design.
When you've traded some more you'll see that all 'trading' is value betting under the skin either by design or accident. When you back at -3mins and lay at post time and make 50p or whatever, those bets do actually run, 'hedging' doesn't make them vanish it's just yet another bet. And anyone that's betted knows there's only one way placing bets can be done profitably. Think about how manual traders do it by happy accident and you'll see how how people do it by design.
i think correlation is peter`s best open secret which in esence factors in commonality and differecnces (+Ve OR -Ve).ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 4:55 amDon't get hung up on what you see as the differences are between manual trading and 'value' betting. Looking for difference rather than commonality is a manual traders mindset.
When you've traded some more you'll see that all 'trading' is value betting under the skin either by design or accident. When you back at -3mins and lay at post time and make 50p or whatever, those bets do actually run, 'hedging' doesn't make them vanish it's just yet another bet. And anyone that's betted knows there's only one way placing bets can be done profitably. Think about how manual traders do it by happy accident and you'll see how how people do it by design.
Value can be statistically proven, its the reason why the market exist , depending on which side of the book , traded Mkt volume consists of buyers and sellers in equal amounts.
question is ? what is one`s position in the market?
i believe its always good to stear your boat towards a neautral point, just like the beginning of every football match, the ball is placed in the middle, then start from there building outwards.
you then deploy your tactics depending on what the market throws at you . its a good thing to have a well rehearsed gameplan ,otherwise your fate will be sealed by randomness, which is the first lesson you should master before venturing into the unknown.
Goat "randomness wont fool you it will only make you wiser"
I mean, you're not wrong, technically.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 4:55 amWhen you've traded some more you'll see that all 'trading' is value betting under the skin either by design or accident. When you back at -3mins and lay at post time and make 50p or whatever, those bets do actually run, 'hedging' doesn't make them vanish it's just yet another bet.
But one person's 'hedging' is another person's 'closing a position.'
And 'closing a position' is ok, and it's ok to think about it in those terms.
If you are doing this sort of thing you might want to consider just how far behind the live action things really might be - travelling at close to 0.10 furlongs per second in the closing stages with say a 2 second feed delay and a 2 second bet delay and presumably looking to see if the 'check engine' light is glowing on etc - I haven't done the calcs for horse lengths per second.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Yep nothing wrong with hedging/closing/reducing. I was just saying that when you do it you're still left holding a portfolio of bets on the race and over the year betting needs value. Fortunately start time prices are correct so your hedge bet isn't a bad one. Same result, two ways to get there, moves (accidental value finding) or value (deliberate value finding).Anbell wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 8:51 amI mean, you're not wrong, technically.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 4:55 amWhen you've traded some more you'll see that all 'trading' is value betting under the skin either by design or accident. When you back at -3mins and lay at post time and make 50p or whatever, those bets do actually run, 'hedging' doesn't make them vanish it's just yet another bet.
But one person's 'hedging' is another person's 'closing a position.'
And 'closing a position' is ok, and it's ok to think about it in those terms.
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Jukebox wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 11:00 amIf you are doing this sort of thing you might want to consider just how far behind the live action things really might be - travelling at close to 0.10 furlongs per second in the closing stages with say a 2 second feed delay and a 2 second bet delay and presumably looking to see if the 'check engine' light is glowing on etc - I haven't done the calcs for horse lengths per second.
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