Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

Getting a bit hacked off, these strategies are the best I can come up with and months worths of effort...

How many outsamples did you do?

So I only have 4months of data. I've run it across the whole data, and plotted, I can see how it varies, and can see the current drawdown is most likely normal. Doesn't stop me from being hacked off though

[The Silk Run]

Hi Hi G. Have you not considered a more simple approach to your stratergies. I do think your over complicating things, somewhat.
You may be pleasantly surprised

[goat68]

Hi Hi G. Have you not considered a more simple approach to your stratergies. I do think your over complicating things, somewhat.
You may be pleasantly surprised

Thanks SR, my strategies are actually quite simple value bets, ie.a straight bet at a certain price, at a certain time, based on the theory Betfair prices are 0ev if you add them ALL up, but that can mean half of them are +1ev, and the other half -1ev . So i just bet on that +1ev half, simple!

[ShaunWhite]

not sure that's what Pvalue quite is, it's the odds of it not achieving a 0% yield over the given sample size I think.

yes and no, p-value is the probability of obtaining results at least as extreme as the observed results of a statistical hypothesis test, assuming that the null hypothesis is correct. It's akin to the standard deviation from the null hypothesis, ie breakeven. But it's only meaningful using subsets of your data and comparing them.

Screenshot_23.jpg

If you're still using your whole dataset, and I think you said you are, then there's no way to prove you're not just backfitting. At least try using subsets and see how they compare?

[goat68]

not sure that's what Pvalue quite is, it's the odds of it not achieving a 0% yield over the given sample size I think.

yes and no, p-value is the probability of obtaining results at least as extreme as the observed results of a statistical hypothesis test, assuming that the null hypothesis is correct. It's akin to the standard deviation from the null hypothesis, ie breakeven. But it's only meaningful using subsets of your data and comparing them.

Screenshot_23.jpg


If you're still using your whole dataset, and I think you said you are, then there's no way to prove you're not just backfitting. At least try using subsets and see how they compare?

Yep, I wouldn't disagree with all of this...

[ShaunWhite]

I hope it turns around for you, false dawns are a demoralising ball ache.

You need to see everything as a positive, either you make a few quid or you learn why you didn't and tighten up your process. Nobody making money has done it without earning their stripes on the way.

Screenshot_24.jpg

[goat68]

I've stopped the Aus horse bot, it's not performing, mainly because 6% commission on average kills the profit, especially when things start chopping around... I think I need to work on a hedging bot for Aus rather than a betting bot.

[ShaunWhite]

I've stopped the Aus horse bot, it's not performing, mainly because 6% commission on average kills the profit, especially when things start chopping around... I think I need to work on a hedging bot for Aus rather than a betting bot.

Not hedging is something that suits the income profile of the big guys but, and I'll say this yet again, the fractional advantage really doesn't pay dividends for small edges or small players. Even the most ardent 'non-hedger' can't dispute the maths when they're presented with it.

btw what's the difference between a hedging bot and a betting bot? That's a new one on me.

[goat68]

btw what's the difference between a hedging bot and a betting bot? That's a new one on me.

one hedges the other doesn't... I make this up as I go along

[goat68]

I've stopped the Aus horse bot, it's not performing, mainly because 6% commission on average kills the profit, especially when things start chopping around... I think I need to work on a hedging bot for Aus rather than a betting bot.

Not hedging is something that suits the income profile of the big guys but, and I'll say this yet again, the fractional advantage really doesn't pay dividends for small edges or small players. Even the most ardent 'non-hedger' can't dispute the maths when they're presented with it.

btw what's the difference between a hedging bot and a betting bot? That's a new one on me.

My theory is to slightly disagree with you here. As I said I think yesterday, not all markets are efficient ALL the time. On average they will be across ALL markets. But my belief is you can find inefficiency in certain selections in certain markets. I know you say that by always hedging things will average out, but that is only the case if you bet on EVERY market. So say you only bet on 20% of markets, depending on how you selected them, hedging may make it overall -EV.
My dog bot is an example which I tried hedging on, and it shows a significant loss with that, my theory being the condition it bets on the BSP is not neutral EV on average.

"Fire away!"

[wearthefoxhat]

I've stopped the Aus horse bot, it's not performing, mainly because 6% commission on average kills the profit, especially when things start chopping around... I think I need to work on a hedging bot for Aus rather than a betting bot.

Not hedging is something that suits the income profile of the big guys but, and I'll say this yet again, the fractional advantage really doesn't pay dividends for small edges or small players. Even the most ardent 'non-hedger' can't dispute the maths when they're presented with it.

btw what's the difference between a hedging bot and a betting bot? That's a new one on me.

My theory is to slightly disagree with you here. As I said I think yesterday, not all markets are efficient ALL the time. On average they will be across ALL markets. But my belief is you can find inefficiency in certain selections in certain markets. I know you say that by always hedging things will average out, but that is only the case if you bet on EVERY market. So say you only bet on 20% of markets, depending on how you selected them, hedging may make it overall -EV.
My dog bot is an example which I tried hedging on, and it shows a significant loss with that, my theory being the condition it bets on the BSP is not neutral EV on average.

"Fire away!"

Sorry if dumb question.

What constitutes value?


Naas 2.00 16th September 2021

Naas 2.00.png

Naas2.00LS.png

Naas2.00Res.png

A value bot might focus on the favourite, which one should be favourite? What might be value?

Another value bot might focus on the outsider(s), which ones are the outsider(s)? Is 50/1+ value?

Do you bother with this info or focus on reams of data supplied by betfair and look for patterns/trends? What tells me its value?

There is no right/wrong answer....or is there?

[goat68]

Not hedging is something that suits the income profile of the big guys but, and I'll say this yet again, the fractional advantage really doesn't pay dividends for small edges or small players. Even the most ardent 'non-hedger' can't dispute the maths when they're presented with it.

btw what's the difference between a hedging bot and a betting bot? That's a new one on me.

My theory is to slightly disagree with you here. As I said I think yesterday, not all markets are efficient ALL the time. On average they will be across ALL markets. But my belief is you can find inefficiency in certain selections in certain markets. I know you say that by always hedging things will average out, but that is only the case if you bet on EVERY market. So say you only bet on 20% of markets, depending on how you selected them, hedging may make it overall -EV.
My dog bot is an example which I tried hedging on, and it shows a significant loss with that, my theory being the condition it bets on the BSP is not neutral EV on average.

"Fire away!"

Sorry if dumb question.

What constitutes value?


Naas 2.00 16th September 2021


Naas 2.00.png



Naas2.00LS.png




Naas2.00Res.png


A value bot might focus on the favourite, which one should be favourite? What might be value?

Another value bot might focus on the outsider(s), which ones are the outsider(s)? Is 50/1+ value?

Do you bother with this info or focus on reams of data supplied by betfair and look for patterns/trends? What tells me its value?

There is no right/wrong answer....or is there?

for me value is simply eg.a back bet at 6.0 winning 25% of the time

[goat68]

remember i'm not exactly an expert at this

[Kai]

remember i'm not exactly an expert at this

That's fine, most pro traders aren't either.

Allow enough time for everything to sink in properly! It's elementary, my dear Goaty

KUTGW

[andy28]