thanks Shaun, i'm still confused by "current fair market price at any time", fair market price at any time is purely "opinion" isn't it? and thus could be anything as everyone has a different opinion? thus there is no one price? so how could any algo have any indication of what fair price is at any time?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:19 pmThe confusion and crossed wires are simply around the definition of value. Value isn't just vs sp or the likelihood of winning. Value is obtaining a price better than the current fair market price at any time. And with no partucular time or price showing a bias vs sp (if only) then that fair market price at any time is analogous to bsp, and therefore the value is maintained regardless of the bsp 'value' in that specific market.
There's also a lot of crossed wires about this being about individual markets vs the general case. What you need to imagine is how a market would behave if it were to encapsulated every market simultaneously.
There's another way i approach things like this, when someone as successful as Liam (probably the most profitable regular forum visitor by some way) tells me something and I don't agree with it, I'm wrong and he's right, and it's my job to work out why he's right. And if he says something that appears insignificant, I've missed the point and I need to work on understanding why it's been said. It would be utterly ridiculous to think I knew better. I had a drink with Liam in Jan 2020, I used two ears and one mouth and then went away to think about it. Since then my return has tripled and it's been that way now for 13 straight months.
Trading What I see !?
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ShaunWhite
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Prices are a product of the hive mind, so yes its opinion and yes they all differ. That's what makes a market. The "current fair market value" can be derenined in many ways and it's rarely the current touch price. . Swing traders might look at order flow and conclude the market is in the wrong place and will adjust (that's how they get 'value') . Others might look at vwap, Vpoc, moving averages, WoM or their own homegrown formula etc etc etc to make their decision that whatever the touch price is now, its wrong.goat68 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:29 pmthanks Shaun, i'm still confused by "current fair market price at any time", fair market price at any time is purely "opinion" isn't it? and thus could be anything as everyone has a different opinion? thus there is no one price? so how could any algo have any indication of what fair price is at any time?
Maybe consider a market where there's £1 matched in the best 3 back prices with big gaps. And £1000 matched at the best 3 lay prices. The 'hive' certainly aren't saying the fair price is the mid price. Swingers would certainly be thinking the value point is elsewhere and be looking for things to move. Bit of an oversimplification but the current mid price isn't always the price the hive is saying is fair. It's tricky but if you see an orange on sale for 10p and the 10000 other oranges sold that day went for £1 each, you know it's a cheap (value) orange even though that's the current price.
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ShaunWhite
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Lol it's was just at the traders drinks lots of people went to incl Peter, 20 or 30 people, I didn't ask him for a date and buy him flowers.
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ShaunWhite
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? Was doing OK before that but it definatly boosted after breathing the same air as some of those high rollers. Pretty humbling really when there's 5 multi-millionaire traders chatting and you're trying to not look like a fool
shaun- my comment missed the *mark*. it was squared at Mr Teeny in jest re *who's managed to go out for drinks since jan 2020*ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:20 pm? Was doing OK before that but it definatly boosted after breathing the same air as some of those high rollers. Pretty humbling really when there's 5 multi-millionaire traders chatting and you're trying to not look like a fool
that said, in company like that you really need to have your clones with you to interrogate them all at the same time - gold in tham thar hills
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ShaunWhite
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yeah it's a balancing act, be knowedgable enough not to be the class clown, but not so much you daren't ask questions. The question is, what questions!
There's no great secrets. I mentioned closing, he said "why are you closing", and I said "mmm good question". That's all it was really. I've got someone else to thank big time for most of the other 'value' stuff which was really the major turning point...tbh Jim I don't have any original thought.
Last edited by ShaunWhite on Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
why -and how high sir!!ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:01 pmyeah it's a balancing act, be knowedgable enough not to be the class clown, but not so much you daren't ask questions. The question is, what questions!
There's no great secrets. I mentioned closing, he said "why are you closing", and I said "mmm good question". That's all it was really. I've got someone else to thank big time for most of the other 'value' stuff which was really the major turning point...tbh Jim I don't have any original thought. I just ask 'why' a lot then do what I'm told.
but i do love those little language details that just ping a lightbulb ("why are you closing") - this circles nicely back to the ongoing *value* debacle
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ShaunWhite
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The other thing I've learnt way too late in life is about assumptions. It's suprising how much you do that you never question. 'closing' was one of those, ditto looking at the top of the market, ditto being steered towards large stable markets, same with thinking things like race type matter when essentially every market is the same old game of supply and demand that's been going on for thousands of years, and the biggy 'trading' somehow not being 2 bets.
i assume you've been downloading my brain - that's my assumptionShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:20 pmThe other thing I've learnt way too late in life is about assumptions. It's suprising how much you do that you never question. 'closing' was one of those, ditto looking at the top of the market, ditto being steered towards large stable markets, same with thinking things like race type matter when essentially every market is the same old game of supply and demand that's been going on for thousands of years, and the biggy 'trading' somehow not being 2 bets.
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flamingofan
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Hi all.
I have been trading horses for around 5 months. It has been a frustrating journey but a couple of weeks ago I made a point to read every post on this thread and since then things have really started to turn around.
The last 7/8 days have been 'profitable' using practice mode and my strike rate has been around 90%. If I continue this good form for the rest of the week then I am tempted to return to real stakes after an ill fated attempt previously where I stupidly went in-play and lost a fair amount. I will not be making that mistake again.
I have been a full time matched bettor for 2 years and done pretty well but my main source of profit has unfortunately now dried up. I am in a situation where I could really do with some income from trading. For the last couple of weeks I would have been making £100 per day consistently if I was trading real stakes. I feel confident enough to be able to do so but given I have only been trading 5 months and people on here are unprofitable after 2 years I am worried that I am not experienced enough and it's too soon.
Am I getting ahead of myself? Is 5 months too soon to jump on real stakes of £50-£250? Does my recent progress signify that I have truly made progress or could it be a false dawn?
I would be interested to know your thoughts and experiences you had when you reached a level of confidence where everything seemed to click and you thought you could do it. Thanks for all the advice I have picked up on here so far.
I have been trading horses for around 5 months. It has been a frustrating journey but a couple of weeks ago I made a point to read every post on this thread and since then things have really started to turn around.
The last 7/8 days have been 'profitable' using practice mode and my strike rate has been around 90%. If I continue this good form for the rest of the week then I am tempted to return to real stakes after an ill fated attempt previously where I stupidly went in-play and lost a fair amount. I will not be making that mistake again.
I have been a full time matched bettor for 2 years and done pretty well but my main source of profit has unfortunately now dried up. I am in a situation where I could really do with some income from trading. For the last couple of weeks I would have been making £100 per day consistently if I was trading real stakes. I feel confident enough to be able to do so but given I have only been trading 5 months and people on here are unprofitable after 2 years I am worried that I am not experienced enough and it's too soon.
Am I getting ahead of myself? Is 5 months too soon to jump on real stakes of £50-£250? Does my recent progress signify that I have truly made progress or could it be a false dawn?
I would be interested to know your thoughts and experiences you had when you reached a level of confidence where everything seemed to click and you thought you could do it. Thanks for all the advice I have picked up on here so far.
Last edited by flamingofan on Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Glad i've managed to help someone, if not myself, well done, keep it up.flamingofan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:51 pm
I have been trading horses for around 5 months. It has been a frustrating journey but a couple of weeks ago I made a point to read every post on this thread and since then things have really started to turn around.
I'm just getting myself so stressed at the moment with frustration.