My top tips:
1. Persevere
2. Keep losses small so you can persevere
3. Learn about data, statistics and analysis
4. Grow your own methodology and toolset
5. Try and look at the markets in different ways, ideally different to everyone else, that's where your edge is hiding...........
Trading What I see !?
Just thought i'd see what my commission charges to gross profit percentage is for June so far: 15.86% not too bad, only a slow inching towards PC...!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
Everytime a comment gets deleted and I haven't seen it I feel like I'm missing out! 
How's the prescription glasses going Derek?!
-
ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Never have actually. It's me that decides they were inappropriate or usually "a bit too useful". That's the thing with forum advice, it helps everyone including the ones you wouldn't "unhygenicly extinguish" even if they were on fire. Then you get the ones that quote you like they thought of it, so it all starts to look like a massive waste of time.
Looks like you have cracked it, I tip my cap to you, I just seem to be going round and round in circles. They all start well but then nose dive a few weeks later, fortunately I can see the reversal coming and stop while still in profit. Had I kept going all would have wiped me out. But I enjoy the hunt, so am hoping one day the penny will drop
I know what you mean, i had a dogs strategy reach live recently, value betting. First experience actually.andy28 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:56 amLooks like you have cracked it, I tip my cap to you, I just seem to be going round and round in circles. They all start well but then nose dive a few weeks later, fortunately I can see the reversal coming and stop while still in profit. Had I kept going all would have wiped me out. But I enjoy the hunt, so am hoping one day the penny will drop
first 1,000 markets did great, tweaked file making obvious improvements, sized up went again
second 1,000 markets did even better, made another small logical improvement, sized up went again
third set of 1000 mkts even more profitable, everything going perfectly, this time I had a big brain idea to boost edge further
sized up went again, and bc on significant size now, I gave it 2,000 markets to push the boost the % chance of it finishing profitable. at the 1500/2000 mark rn and it's looking DISMALLLLLLLLL.
Really thought I made such a smart move with the latest improvement. It makes complete sense on paper for it to boost edge, some thoughts I have: am I just being really unlucky now? Was I just fooled by randomness... for 3,000 markets, isnt that too many ? Did I just catch a seasonal window ?
I'm aware sizing up could be an issue as well but when I watch it running it really shouldn't make that much difference compared to the last iteration, so I feel it's not that, but hesitant to make the assumption.
Ran a variation on AUS/NZL dogs after first 3 phases proved successful in UK. Was unsure about profitability due to higher commish.
Started that about same time as the 4th set of UK/IRE markets so using the same file version but tiny stakes. So far profitable after 1500 markets... No idea if its luck or not... UGH SO FRUSTRATING!!
The numbers are still on my side so far so thinking I'll give it another chance in UK/IRE but cut the size in half next month. If that tanks as well then i'll try running the latest version which was profitable. Also had the idea to start logging the hedge market P&L figure @ suspend (race start) as I could compare that set of results to the actual performance and would give me a sense of if I was beating SP and getting bad variance or bad on both, but dont have the data for my current results on that... although could possibly fetch SP's from somewhere and try backfit
https://imgur.com/a/8Ixp8VH
What you think goat/andy/others any advice ?
i've PM'd youeightbo wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:15 amI know what you mean, i had a dogs strategy reach live recently, value betting. First experience actually.andy28 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:56 amLooks like you have cracked it, I tip my cap to you, I just seem to be going round and round in circles. They all start well but then nose dive a few weeks later, fortunately I can see the reversal coming and stop while still in profit. Had I kept going all would have wiped me out. But I enjoy the hunt, so am hoping one day the penny will drop
first 1,000 markets did great, tweaked file making obvious improvements, sized up went again
second 1,000 markets did even better, made another small logical improvement, sized up went again
third set of 1000 mkts even more profitable, everything going perfectly, this time I had a big brain idea to boost edge further
sized up went again, and bc on significant size now, I gave it 2,000 markets to push the boost the % chance of it finishing profitable. at the 1500/2000 mark rn and it's looking DISMALLLLLLLLL.
Really thought I made such a smart move with the latest improvement. It makes complete sense on paper for it to boost edge, some thoughts I have: am I just being really unlucky now? Was I just fooled by randomness... for 3,000 markets, isnt that too many ? Did I just catch a seasonal window ?
I'm aware sizing up could be an issue as well but when I watch it running it really shouldn't make that much difference compared to the last iteration, so I feel it's not that, but hesitant to make the assumption.
Ran a variation on AUS/NZL dogs after first 3 phases proved successful in UK. Was unsure about profitability due to higher commish.
Started that about same time as the 4th set of UK/IRE markets so using the same file version but tiny stakes. So far profitable after 1500 markets... No idea if its luck or not... UGH SO FRUSTRATING!!
The numbers are still on my side so far so thinking I'll give it another chance in UK/IRE but cut the size in half next month. If that tanks as well then i'll try running the latest version which was profitable. Also had the idea to start logging the hedge market P&L figure @ suspend (race start) as I could compare that set of results to the actual performance and would give me a sense of if I was beating SP and getting bad variance or bad on both, but dont have the data for my current results on that... although could possibly fetch SP's from somewhere and try backfit
https://imgur.com/a/8Ixp8VH
What you think goat/andy/others any advice ?