Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
Post Reply
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:54 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:27 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:08 pm
I've stopped the Aus horse bot, it's not performing, mainly because 6% commission on average kills the profit, especially when things start chopping around... I think I need to work on a hedging bot for Aus rather than a betting bot.
Not hedging is something that suits the income profile of the big guys but, and I'll say this yet again, the fractional advantage really doesn't pay dividends for small edges or small players. Even the most ardent 'non-hedger' can't dispute the maths when they're presented with it.

btw what's the difference between a hedging bot and a betting bot? That's a new one on me.
My theory is to slightly disagree with you here. As I said I think yesterday, not all markets are efficient ALL the time. On average they will be across ALL markets. But my belief is you can find inefficiency in certain selections in certain markets. I know you say that by always hedging things will average out, but that is only the case if you bet on EVERY market. So say you only bet on 20% of markets, depending on how you selected them, hedging may make it overall -EV.
My dog bot is an example which I tried hedging on, and it shows a significant loss with that, my theory being the condition it bets on the BSP is not neutral EV on average.

"Fire away!" :!:
Sorry if dumb question.

What constitutes value?


Naas 2.00 16th September 2021

Naas 2.00.png

Naas2.00LS.png


Naas2.00Res.png

A value bot might focus on the favourite, which one should be favourite? What might be value?

Another value bot might focus on the outsider(s), which ones are the outsider(s)? Is 50/1+ value?

Do you bother with this info or focus on reams of data supplied by betfair and look for patterns/trends? What tells me its value?

There is no right/wrong answer....or is there?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:54 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:54 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:27 pm

Not hedging is something that suits the income profile of the big guys but, and I'll say this yet again, the fractional advantage really doesn't pay dividends for small edges or small players. Even the most ardent 'non-hedger' can't dispute the maths when they're presented with it.

btw what's the difference between a hedging bot and a betting bot? That's a new one on me.
My theory is to slightly disagree with you here. As I said I think yesterday, not all markets are efficient ALL the time. On average they will be across ALL markets. But my belief is you can find inefficiency in certain selections in certain markets. I know you say that by always hedging things will average out, but that is only the case if you bet on EVERY market. So say you only bet on 20% of markets, depending on how you selected them, hedging may make it overall -EV.
My dog bot is an example which I tried hedging on, and it shows a significant loss with that, my theory being the condition it bets on the BSP is not neutral EV on average.

"Fire away!" :!:
Sorry if dumb question.

What constitutes value?


Naas 2.00 16th September 2021


Naas 2.00.png



Naas2.00LS.png




Naas2.00Res.png


A value bot might focus on the favourite, which one should be favourite? What might be value?

Another value bot might focus on the outsider(s), which ones are the outsider(s)? Is 50/1+ value?

Do you bother with this info or focus on reams of data supplied by betfair and look for patterns/trends? What tells me its value?

There is no right/wrong answer....or is there?
for me value is simply eg.a back bet at 6.0 winning 25% of the time
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

remember i'm not exactly an expert at this :lol: :lol:
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:13 pm
remember i'm not exactly an expert at this :lol: :lol:
That's fine, most pro traders aren't either.

Allow enough time for everything to sink in properly! It's elementary, my dear Goaty :)

KUTGW 👍

Image
andy28
Posts: 343
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:06 am
Location: NZ

:lol:
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Kai wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:40 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:13 pm
remember i'm not exactly an expert at this :lol: :lol:
That's fine, most pro traders aren't either.
There's'pro traders who aren't experts, and non-pros who are, and great pros who can't teach and great teachers who can't trade. Ahhhh do you remember the good old days when you thought for yourself instead of looking for someone to subcontract your thinking to?
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:04 am
Kai wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:40 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:13 pm
remember i'm not exactly an expert at this :lol: :lol:
That's fine, most pro traders aren't either.
There's'pro traders who aren't experts, and non-pros who are, and great pros who can't teach and great teachers who can't trade. Ahhhh do you remember the good old days when you thought for yourself instead of looking for someone to subcontract your thinking to?
If everyone is thinking alike, then is anyone really thinking?! :D 🤔

But don't think it applies to the core trading mechanics, have to pick those up from somewhere as there's not much point in reinventing the wheel!

It's a strange one isn't it, on paper it doesn't take much to push someone's results into profit, but in reality the skill gap between a newbie and a pro(fitable) trader feels like a chasm.
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

People say it doesn't take much to get from totally random 50/50 trading into profit, in theory that is true but is it really like that in reality? Because you don't really start off trading purely randomly, do you? You start off far behind in the minus because you're falling for every single market trick and you get bullied and pushed around all over the place as that's by design :D Only when you overcome those market tricks and mental traps can you come close to random results, or through botting, but at that point you need to learn a few tricks of your own to get into profit and to gain an edge over that same market.

So that's a much bigger gap to close than it seems at first.
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:13 pm
remember i'm not exactly an expert at this :lol: :lol:
There's a lot of content you've posted has its own area of expertise, the journey is trying to find something that fits.
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:02 pm


for me value is simply eg.a back bet at 6.0 winning 25% of the time
Ok fair enough.

One approach I'm looking at, is laying the favourite. Wait a minute Fox, that's been done to death/solved, you're wasting your time buddy. The initial stats may prove "they're" right.

Lay all fav's since 2012 @ 2% comms @£100

LayFavs.png

But...there are certain conditions when a favourite is overbet and other attributes where a favourite is at a disadvantage. So that may constitute value when laying them. Of course some results will bite you in the arse, but over time, will pan out.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:35 am
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:02 pm


for me value is simply eg.a back bet at 6.0 winning 25% of the time
Ok fair enough.

One approach I'm looking at, is laying the favourite. Wait a minute Fox, that's been done to death/solved, you're wasting your time buddy. The initial stats may prove "they're" right.

Lay all fav's since 2012 @ 2% comms @£100


LayFavs.png


But...there are certain conditions when a favourite is overbet and other attributes where a favourite is at a disadvantage. So that may constitute value when laying them. Of course some results will bite you in the arse, but over time, will pan out.
Thanks Fox. I 100% agree with you here, because this is EXACTLY what my Aus Horse bot does. The reason it's done badly the last month, is because a very high % of fav's have won recently.
Here is exactly what my Aus Horse bot does:
Trigger:
- market volume over 4x the value it was at -7mins. Gives a very rough indication the market is "active"
- 1st fav has over 20% of the total matched volume. Sanity check there's some decent volume for 1st fav.
- 1st fav mid-price < VWAP*0.94. A price action trigger indicating the 1st fav is being backed in at this point
Action=> LAY !!!

That's it! I've stopped it now however, because Aus fav's are winning all the time at the moment and 6% commission is a killer for this...

@SilkRun: Told you I was keeping things simple :-)
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

goat68 wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:51 am
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:35 am
goat68 wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:02 pm


for me value is simply eg.a back bet at 6.0 winning 25% of the time
Ok fair enough.

One approach I'm looking at, is laying the favourite. Wait a minute Fox, that's been done to death/solved, you're wasting your time buddy. The initial stats may prove "they're" right.

Lay all fav's since 2012 @ 2% comms @£100


LayFavs.png


But...there are certain conditions when a favourite is overbet and other attributes where a favourite is at a disadvantage. So that may constitute value when laying them. Of course some results will bite you in the arse, but over time, will pan out.
Thanks Fox. I 100% agree with you here, because this is EXACTLY what my Aus Horse bot does. The reason it's done badly the last month, is because a very high % of fav's have won recently.
Here is exactly what my Aus Horse bot does:
Trigger:
- market volume over 4x the value it was at -7mins. Gives a very rough indication the market is "active"
- 1st fav has over 20% of the total matched volume. Sanity check there's some decent volume for 1st fav.
- 1st fav mid-price < VWAP*0.94. A price action trigger indicating the 1st fav is being backed in at this point
Action=> LAY !!!

That's it! I've stopped it now however, because Aus fav's are winning all the time at the moment and 6% commission is a killer for this...

@SilkRun: Told you I was keeping things simple :-)
The commision @ 6% is a doozy for sure. Even in the example I gave (UK/IRE), the 2% puts it into the red.

Your example looks okay to be fair. I'd be inclined to factor in something that measures the race to be competitive against the fav. ie; Close proximiity of the 2nd/3rd Fav in relation to the actual Fav, maybe the book% combined in some way.

You might recall the Little Acorns thread a while ago, it still has some value in todays markets.
andy28
Posts: 343
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:06 am
Location: NZ

Problem with Aussie racing is that 7 minutes from the off and you have 500 pound matched. My bots are rubbish but one condition I have is that they do nothing until there is 15K matched, that leaves around 90s. Certain days are better but unless it is a metro meeting (Saturday) or a Wednesday there is very little volume compared to the UK. But I guess if you are value betting that doesn't matter as long as you get matched at your price.

I also notice the trading range is massive compared to UK racing (not that I have traded them much. just going off Peters Video's) and they change quick, I just think they are tough, but that's me as a newbie's take on it
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

@goat68 instead of 20% TVol on the fav, have you considered vol share compared to price. Eg 2.0 needs 50% 10/1 needs 10% etc. Ie what bookies would call overbacked or underbacked?

And why just the fav? That logic would/could work equally well on any runner. 'Look at the fav' is a manual traders mindset due to the #eyes=2 limitation they have. The only special thing about the favourite is its name 'the favourite'
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:41 pm
@goat68 instead of 20% TVol on the fav, have you considered vol share compared to price. Eg 2.0 needs 50% 10/1 needs 10% etc. Ie what bookies would call overbacked or underbacked?

And why just the fav? That logic would/could work equally well on any runner. 'Look at the fav' is a manual traders mindset due to the #eyes=2 limitation they have. The only special thing about the favourite is its name 'the favourite'
Yes, I've used what I termed Relative volume, so price*matchedVol.

I found from analysis 1st fav was the most correlated, I have run against all runners as well.
Post Reply

Return to “Betfair trading strategies”