Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
Post Reply
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:57 pm
multiple bets either way, although I limited in my tests to between +4 to -4 on each selection, ie.limiting back or lay liability to 4 bets either side
So each bet is 1/4 of your max....I just go max of any remaining unused liability, and cancel any unmatched amounts when my signal is lost obv. I didn't find any advantage from splitting up the stake into smaller amounts. In fact it was worse because you don't end up with much on if you only bet once or twice on one side.

That's an easy backtest to check that one of course if you've got a max bet size parameter as well as a max liability parameter, just make them same. Whether '4' or any other number is best is knowable so needn't be a guess if that's what it was.

To check, if you had 4 bets one one side, would your lay bet stake now be double the usual amount? Eg if you're at +4 then you have -8 available to get to the -4 max the other way. Would that now permit 8 lay bets, or 4 lay bets before you got to -4?
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Found a new dog model strategy, looks good, not the throughput of the first one, but every bit adds up:
Screenshot 2022-01-02 at 12.20.13.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

A date on the x axis would be handy, I was wondering when that kink happened about 1/3 of the way along that halved (?) your RoI. Did this one stand up to in & out of sample testing to make sure it's not backfitted?

Also do you get what I was saying about allowing 4 bets? It seems to be reducing the amount you're turning over and there's no reason the 1st bet needn't be any better or worse than the 4th.
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:19 pm
A date on the x axis would be handy, I was wondering when that kink happened about 1/3 of the way along that halved (?) your RoI. Did this one stand up to in & out of sample testing to make sure it's not backfitted?

Also do you get what I was saying about allowing 4 bets? It seems to be reducing the amount you're turning over and there's no reason the 1st bet needn't be any better or worse than the 4th.
Yes to in and out samples
The kink is actually due to the spike up 1/4 way, which was a race that started 25sec early and was not hedged, bet won!

Need to think about the 4bet thing...
The 4 bets are at different times..
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:32 pm
The kink is actually due to the spike up 1/4 way, which was a race that started 25sec early and was not hedged, bet won!
? This is the one I was referring to...
Screenshot_2.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:32 pm
Need to think about the 4bet thing...
The 4 bets are at different times..
If they're at 4 deliberate times then fair enough. I was thinking of where a specific price situation occurs and you bet whenever that happens. ie no point restricting your stake because there might not be 3 more. I'm just used to questioning everything and looking for ways to prove the right decisions have been made. When you said '4' my first instinct was to wonder why/how you'd picked 4.

Being nit-picky isn't being critical it's just that the devil is in the detail with tiny margins. :)
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:13 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:32 pm
The kink is actually due to the spike up 1/4 way, which was a race that started 25sec early and was not hedged, bet won!
? This is the one I was referring to...
Screenshot_2.jpg
I suspect seasonal variation, both strategies zoom off over the first 2 months, and ease off over summer
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

So here's the combined backtest for both greyhound bots, as you mentioned Shaun the middle section flatterns, but it's actually the first section that is steep, with June&July having a above expected strike rate:
Screenshot 2022-01-02 at 20.54.52.png
Bot's had a good day today, +£20
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

There you go, slow and steady!
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

This is far harder than it sounds: https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/trad ... -be-scary/
"To get to profitability, all I needed to was refine my entry, exit, staking, market selection or strategy selection. Any of those, or some in combination, should do the trick. I just needed to be a little better than average to achieve profitability."

If you trade absolutely random, then yes you will breakeven'ish, the difficulty is trading perfectly random.

The next problem is becoming profitable, is it tends to most of the time go the other way, ie.your efforts to do better than breakeven result in more loss....! The "crowd" are all trying to do that hence by reason the obvious/simple methods will result in loss, otherwise everyone will be millionaires! So although this sounds easy, it can't be!

"Goat wisdom of the day" :-)
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Good start to year:
Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 22.02.50.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Drawing a blank on new greyhound strategies, might take a break from dogs and look a horse modelling
User avatar
The Silk Run
Posts: 917
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am
Location: United Kingdom

Hi Hi G
Before "taking-a-break", have you considered Dutching stratergies for GH markets.
Happy New Year
Minnie LAI
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

The Silk Run wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:35 pm
Hi Hi G
Before "taking-a-break", have you considered Dutching stratergies for GH markets.
Happy New Year
Minnie LAI
Happy New Year Minnie LAI
As it so happens, I have a backtest running for such a dutching strategy, results so far are half reasonable.
Thanks
User avatar
The Silk Run
Posts: 917
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am
Location: United Kingdom

Kool. Post your experiences on the Trading Greyhounds topic to revitalise it somewhat as the traffic has come to a halt !!!
Post Reply

Return to “Betfair trading strategies”