what are the chances for those of us ,with less time and less testing ?i've found 1 bot that may make £200 a month or £6 a day, LIDL pay £10 for an hour!
If nobody was making any money and we were all just trading for fun there wouldn't be so many miserable bastards on the forum
£2400 a year for one bot/idea that you don't have to attend 24/7, that sounds pretty good to me
yeah! will see about that... just peeked at how it's doing today and it's lost -£35 in one trade!! layed Go Black Betty in Newcastle 15:09 at 5.2, hedge at SP at 2.5 !! price slipped from 3.7 at -10seconds to 2.5 at SP
It's funny you mention this, for a long time I learned to read form, not just horse form but real in depth analysis, monthly subscriptions to various sites to really drill down into run speeds, stride length, sectional times, trainer form, jockey form the whole lot. I was using this to then make a decision based on the race type/track and lay various horses. I never really beat breakeven and coupled with some dodgy financial decisions like using a fib staking system I did worse than breakeven.goat68 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:21 pmI've being doing some data analysis and backtesting on UK horses pre-race, using good old horse and jockey form, and modelling of sorts. It's a lot more difficult than dogs...! But unsurprisingly whatever I try based on previous horse & jockey form, ends up breakeven at best, even with the best execution I can find.
I'm not surprised really, it's the obvious thing to do, and the obvious things are never profitable. My dog bot uses a rather different angle on things, and hence why I hope it has legs... Takes 100s of iterations and thoughts to find something others might not have, which is what this game is all about. Pre-race UK horses everyone is at, and have thought of everything, so finding that unique difference that not many other have is going to be VERY VERY HARD!
Hence, everyone is jumping in-play nowadays, as pre-race is too hard, but then that will become the same, and eventually the markets will become a straight line
that's the problem every Tom, Dick and Harry (the jockey! still on his donkey) looks at forms establishes their own model totally different from everyone else and thus another varied opinion.... but it's the "net effect" of all these 1000s of models that gives the right answer, but in the long term only...MobiusGrey wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:41 pmIt's funny you mention this, for a long time I learned to read form, not just horse form but real in depth analysis, monthly subscriptions to various sites to really drill down into run speeds, stride length, sectional times, trainer form, jockey form the whole lot. I was using this to then make a decision based on the race type/track and lay various horses. I never really beat breakeven and coupled with some dodgy financial decisions like using a fib staking system I did worse than breakeven.goat68 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:21 pmI've being doing some data analysis and backtesting on UK horses pre-race, using good old horse and jockey form, and modelling of sorts. It's a lot more difficult than dogs...! But unsurprisingly whatever I try based on previous horse & jockey form, ends up breakeven at best, even with the best execution I can find.
I'm not surprised really, it's the obvious thing to do, and the obvious things are never profitable. My dog bot uses a rather different angle on things, and hence why I hope it has legs... Takes 100s of iterations and thoughts to find something others might not have, which is what this game is all about. Pre-race UK horses everyone is at, and have thought of everything, so finding that unique difference that not many other have is going to be VERY VERY HARD!
Hence, everyone is jumping in-play nowadays, as pre-race is too hard, but then that will become the same, and eventually the markets will become a straight line
The reason that I mention this is out of interest I wondered if I could write a bot that looks at none of this and lays a horse based purely on position in the market pre-off and odds. It's currently out performing me with zero analysis.
That's not the problem that's the chink of light. All these models act at different times at different target prices and therefore if you have a good model you'll find your value price at some point. I thought you'd said you were worried about markets flatlining because everyone would end up with the same perfect model?
I was taking the... with that statement, as I know humans will always be humans, just look at Parliament !ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:36 pmI thought you'd said you were worried about markets flatlining because everyone would end up with the same perfect model?
a good model by definition then, is one that correctly models the average of most of the other models....?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:36 pm
That's not the problem that's the chink of light. All these models act at different times at different target prices and therefore if you have a good model you'll find your value price at some point.
I love your total self belief. Some guys devote a lifetime to horse form and because you can't making it work after about 20mins trying you discount it.
UK horse form models can work, fact, because I know someone with one. But the people with good ones have put in 000s of hours, even just a year full time is about 2,500hrs. The problem however can be finding enough liquid at your price to make it worthwhile. No. In order to get matches you just need to be within the extents of the others' models. 10 models could say 3.0, one could say 5.0 and yours could say 4.8. At some point Mr 5.0 will bet with you.goat68 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:50 pma good model by definition then, is one that correctly models the average of most of the other models....?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:36 pm
That's not the problem that's the chink of light. All these models act at different times at different target prices and therefore if you have a good model you'll find your value price at some point.
So yes, this is what I am thinking, rare/ unique info, as opposed to a model that says if horse raced a class 4 last week and now racing a class 3 then rate it lower pricedShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:06 pm
but models are often about having rare info which is applied to individual markets.
Undoubtedly takes a huge amount of effort, i probably spent on average only 1.5 hours a day over a year to come up with one dog bot, so thats roughly 500hours, so just to get near your horsey colleague is going to take 5years! You may see why i try and take short cuts...? As otherwise it's not worth it!ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:55 pmI love your total self belief. Some guys devote a lifetime to horse form and because you can't making it work after about 20mins trying you discount it.
Btw you're techy, why don't you put every fundamental you can find into ML?
