Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

Looks like you have cracked it, I tip my cap to you, I just seem to be going round and round in circles. They all start well but then nose dive a few weeks later, fortunately I can see the reversal coming and stop while still in profit. Had I kept going all would have wiped me out. But I enjoy the hunt, so am hoping one day the penny will drop

I know what you mean, i had a dogs strategy reach live recently, value betting. First experience actually.
first 1,000 markets did great, tweaked file making obvious improvements, sized up went again
second 1,000 markets did even better, made another small logical improvement, sized up went again
third set of 1000 mkts even more profitable, everything going perfectly, this time I had a big brain idea to boost edge further
sized up went again, and bc on significant size now, I gave it 2,000 markets to push the boost the % chance of it finishing profitable. at the 1500/2000 mark rn and it's looking DISMALLLLLLLLL.
Really thought I made such a smart move with the latest improvement. It makes complete sense on paper for it to boost edge, some thoughts I have: am I just being really unlucky now? Was I just fooled by randomness... for 3,000 markets, isnt that too many ? Did I just catch a seasonal window ?

I'm aware sizing up could be an issue as well but when I watch it running it really shouldn't make that much difference compared to the last iteration, so I feel it's not that, but hesitant to make the assumption.

Ran a variation on AUS/NZL dogs after first 3 phases proved successful in UK. Was unsure about profitability due to higher commish.
Started that about same time as the 4th set of UK/IRE markets so using the same file version but tiny stakes. So far profitable after 1500 markets... No idea if its luck or not... UGH SO FRUSTRATING!!

The numbers are still on my side so far so thinking I'll give it another chance in UK/IRE but cut the size in half next month. If that tanks as well then i'll try running the latest version which was profitable. Also had the idea to start logging the hedge market P&L figure @ suspend (race start) as I could compare that set of results to the actual performance and would give me a sense of if I was beating SP and getting bad variance or bad on both, but dont have the data for my current results on that... although could possibly fetch SP's from somewhere and try backfit

https://imgur.com/a/8Ixp8VH

What you think goat/andy/others any advice ?

Analysing a virtual hedge at BSP would be good to check your long term performance

[eightbo]

Thanks boss

[goat68]

Thanks boss

Nope, that's my Mrs !

[ShaunWhite]

3000 dog markets is about a month. 3-6 months would be a decent sample and why tweaking in real-time is so much harder than looking at the data.

The stand out in your post is size, it's so easy to break something with small stake differences, even £11 might fail where £10 doesn't. If I can make a suggestion, rather than using stake A one week and stake B the next, run a version that randomly uses one stake or the other. And then you can split your results by stake when you analyse your bets and remove some of that element of change over time.

[Michael5482]

Well I was burning the midnight oil engrossed in this thread from start to finish, lots of quality input shared. Well done Goat inspirational stuff

[ShaunWhite]

Well I was burning the midnight oil engrossed in this thread from start to finish, lots of quality input shared. Well done Goat inspirational stuff

It's just a shame almost none of it is applicable without a ton of other software. Considering this is a BA forum it became a little self indulgent so interesting maybe, but a distraction unless you're going a very specific route.

[goat68]

Well I was burning the midnight oil engrossed in this thread from start to finish, lots of quality input shared. Well done Goat inspirational stuff

Glad it helps, as Shaun states i've developed a lot of my own software and using Python wrapper API, but everyone needs to develop their own way forward, whatever that maybe, and that takes time.

[Frogmella]

This thread is useless, unreadable. Because of all the constant reposting of the previous comment within the latest comment. Many forums simply don't allow it. For GOOD reason.

[goat68]

This thread is useless, unreadable. Because of all the constant reposting of the previous comment within the latest comment. Many forums simply don't allow it. For GOOD reason.

Umm, there must be a meme for that...

[ShaunWhite]

It's because comments relate to specific postings and it stops complicated multi-threaded conversations becoming jumbled. If you can't handle skipping to the new section after the quote then stick to the jokes thread.

[Trader Pat]

This thread is useless, unreadable. Because of all the constant reposting of the previous comment within the latest comment. Many forums simply don't allow it. For GOOD reason.

Umm, there must be a meme for that...

I'm sure one will be along shortly!

[ShaunWhite]

Tech helps but its all useless without viable strategy ideas, there's no point creating the ultimate driving machine if you haven't got anywhere to go.

The boy done good but there's one more tiger stripe to earn.... What happens when this one dies?

[goat68]

Last few evenings i've been re-visiting my Greyhound "model", trying to use some different perspectives and use some of my new tooling to analyse, hopefully found a little bit more value, looks promising, a 3 month backtest April-June, purely from form data:

Screenshot 2022-06-28 at 19.38.46.png

[ShaunWhite]

It's a pretty chart but with no numbers you know it doesn't actually convey any meaningful information.

Anyways it looks like the baton had been passed, it's time for you to help a few people now. The wording at the top of the page says "community" so it's nice if people give as much as they got.

[goat68]

It's a pretty chart but with no numbers you know it doesn't actually convey any meaningful information.

Anyways it looks like the baton had been passed, it's time for you to help a few people now. The wording at the top of the page says "community" so it's nice if people give as much as they got.

Cheers

I have DM'd a number of people...