Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Inforaquid
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:11 am

goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:30 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:18 am
Inforaquid wrote:
Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:07 pm
Right. Apparently the challenge is to be matched in equal proportions whether you make a profit or a loss because beating the BSP is pretty easy.
Equal proportions?
"Beating BSP is easy"????
Easy if you have 2 years spare ! :)
Surely if Shaun had been involved from the start it wouldn't have taken two years. Everything I know that's truly useful comes from him and I think he's a great mentor.
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napshnap
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

I think we should remeber that in some situations hedging by SP in not cost-free. For example, I think hedging doggies in illiquid markets for =>100$ with price >~30.0 will "move" SP in a direction you're hedging. You influence markets with your activity.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 1:24 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:18 am
Inforaquid wrote:
Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:07 pm
Right. Apparently the challenge is to be matched in equal proportions whether you make a profit or a loss because beating the BSP is pretty easy.
Equal proportions?
"Beating BSP is easy"????
🤔 Then I should wait a little longer before drawing conclusions. So far I have only bet on around 2000 selections. Equal proportions i.e. total stakes to be equal on both profitable and unprofitable bets because apparently it's not enough to beat the BSP if the fill rate is not good enough.
Hedging costs you roughly 1/2 a tick each time, but you gain with lower variance and commission

Not sure what the proportions bit is about? Forget about your "hedge bet" for the moment, consider that 0EV for the moment. So all your other bets hopefully on average have value, regardless of "proportion" ?
What you need to be wary of is fill and match rate, eg.do your +EV bets get lower fill/match rate than your -EV bets? ie.your winners don't match up as good as the losers... often called "adverse selection".
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napshnap
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 4:45 pm
Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 1:24 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:18 am

Equal proportions?
"Beating BSP is easy"????
🤔 Then I should wait a little longer before drawing conclusions. So far I have only bet on around 2000 selections. Equal proportions i.e. total stakes to be equal on both profitable and unprofitable bets because apparently it's not enough to beat the BSP if the fill rate is not good enough.
Hedging costs you roughly 1/2 a tick each time, but you gain with lower variance and commission
...
That's questionable, cause of possible premium charges (pc2 especially).
Inforaquid
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:11 am

goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 4:45 pm
Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 1:24 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:18 am

Equal proportions?
"Beating BSP is easy"????
🤔 Then I should wait a little longer before drawing conclusions. So far I have only bet on around 2000 selections. Equal proportions i.e. total stakes to be equal on both profitable and unprofitable bets because apparently it's not enough to beat the BSP if the fill rate is not good enough.
Hedging costs you roughly 1/2 a tick each time, but you gain with lower variance and commission

your +EV bets get lower fill/match rate than your -EV bets? ie.your winners don't match up as good as the losers... often called "adverse selection".
Yes, that's what I mean. Why does hedging at the BSP lose half a tick each time?
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napshnap
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:08 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 4:45 pm
Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 1:24 pm


🤔 Then I should wait a little longer before drawing conclusions. So far I have only bet on around 2000 selections. Equal proportions i.e. total stakes to be equal on both profitable and unprofitable bets because apparently it's not enough to beat the BSP if the fill rate is not good enough.
Hedging costs you roughly 1/2 a tick each time, but you gain with lower variance and commission

your +EV bets get lower fill/match rate than your -EV bets? ie.your winners don't match up as good as the losers... often called "adverse selection".
Yes, that's what I mean. Why does hedging at the BSP lose half a tick each time?
I guess it comes from goat's experience, his data. Obviously - bigger a price and a sum you want to hedge - the worser SP will be (being influenced by your hedging bet).
Inforaquid
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:11 am

napshnap wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 3:38 pm
I think we should remeber that in some situations hedging by SP in not cost-free. For example, I think hedging doggies in illiquid markets for =>100$ with price >~30.0 will "move" SP in a direction you're hedging. You influence markets with your activity.
100$ @ 30 or higher seems like a high stake to me but it's a good thing to know.
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napshnap
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:16 pm
napshnap wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 3:38 pm
I think we should remeber that in some situations hedging by SP in not cost-free. For example, I think hedging doggies in illiquid markets for =>100$ with price >~30.0 will "move" SP in a direction you're hedging. You influence markets with your activity.
100$ @ 30 or higher seems like a high stake to me but it's a good thing to know.
It may be not 100% accurate, but... screw 100$, imagine it 1000$ or 10000$ on a super thin morning SuffolkDowns market, it will just absolutely destroy SP. Think you get the idea.
And here comes the question for more experienced traders/bettors - if hedging on SP costs something then it must give you somethng valuable? Variation smoothing - seems not enough for me, more like psycological aspect. What else it gives us then? We can't say then that EVERY possible strategy is better without SP hedging, can we?
Last edited by napshnap on Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:53 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 4:45 pm
Hedging costs you roughly 1/2 a tick each time, but you gain with lower variance and commission
1/2 if you take, 0 if you get BSP, +1/2 if you offer. And as naps says, in illiquid markets you can easily move sp against you.

Bigger variance is a plus, with 100% SR you'd only pay 2% then have to pay the extra 18% at the end of the week. My SR is only iro 52-55% with individual markets anything from +/- 50p to +/-£250 and pay a ton of commission...... But zero PC and very close to swerving PC2 when that happens next year sometime.
Inforaquid
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:11 am

napshnap wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:12 pm
Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:08 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 4:45 pm


Hedging costs you roughly 1/2 a tick each time, but you gain with lower variance and commission

your +EV bets get lower fill/match rate than your -EV bets? ie.your winners don't match up as good as the losers... often called "adverse selection".
Yes, that's what I mean. Why does hedging at the BSP lose half a tick each time?
I guess it comes from goat's experience, his data. Obviously - bigger a price and a sum you want to hedge - the worser SP will be (being influenced by your hedging bet).
My opinion without having enough data was that BSP sometimes represents value for lay and sometimes for back therefore it would be neutral on average.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:16 pm
napshnap wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 3:38 pm
I think we should remeber that in some situations hedging by SP in not cost-free. For example, I think hedging doggies in illiquid markets for =>100$ with price >~30.0 will "move" SP in a direction you're hedging. You influence markets with your activity.
100$ @ 30 or higher seems like a high stake to me but it's a good thing to know.
You can move sp by a tenth or two with less then £100 at less than 30/1 tbh. It's one more reason you need to account for slippage when you go from test to live.
Inforaquid
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:11 am

napshnap wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:21 pm
Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:16 pm
napshnap wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 3:38 pm
I think we should remeber that in some situations hedging by SP in not cost-free. For example, I think hedging doggies in illiquid markets for =>100$ with price >~30.0 will "move" SP in a direction you're hedging. You influence markets with your activity.
100$ @ 30 or higher seems like a high stake to me but it's a good thing to know.
It may be not 100% accurate, but... screw 100$, imagine it 1000$ or 10000$ on a super thin morning SuffolkDowns market, it will just absolutely destroy SP. Think you get the idea.
And here comes the question for more expirensed trader/bettors - if hedging on SP costs something then it must give you somethng valubale? Variation smoothing - seems not enough for me, more like psycological aspect. what else it gives us then?
Yes, it makes sense that whatever you do more or less influences the market.
Inforaquid
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:11 am

napshnap wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:21 pm
Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:16 pm
napshnap wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 3:38 pm
I think we should remeber that in some situations hedging by SP in not cost-free. For example, I think hedging doggies in illiquid markets for =>100$ with price >~30.0 will "move" SP in a direction you're hedging. You influence markets with your activity.
And here comes the question for more expirensed traders/bettors - if hedging on SP costs something then it must give you somethng valuable? Variation smoothing - seems not enough for me, more like psycological aspect. What else it gives us then? We can't say then that EVERY possible strategy is better without SP hedging, can we?
I think it's better to do some kind of dutching to reduce the variance than to take SP.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:26 pm
My opinion without having enough data was that BSP sometimes represents value for lay and sometimes for back therefore it would be neutral on average.
BSP is right at scale but it's not even possible to know if BSP is right for any given animal. They run, they win or lose, and whether it should have been 1.9 or 2.1 on that day in question is pure speculation. And when a good edge vs BSP might be 2-3% then it makes it tricky to judge.

I'm not sure what your plans are but a lot of this sort of stuff is theoretical and only evident at large scale. You mentioned trading 2000 selections, I trade about 1000 a day, 4.2 bets on each, and still I see the expected win rate vs BSP being up or down over 4-6 week periods.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:08 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 4:45 pm
Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 1:24 pm


🤔 Then I should wait a little longer before drawing conclusions. So far I have only bet on around 2000 selections. Equal proportions i.e. total stakes to be equal on both profitable and unprofitable bets because apparently it's not enough to beat the BSP if the fill rate is not good enough.
Hedging costs you roughly 1/2 a tick each time, but you gain with lower variance and commission

your +EV bets get lower fill/match rate than your -EV bets? ie.your winners don't match up as good as the losers... often called "adverse selection".
Yes, that's what I mean. Why does hedging at the BSP lose half a tick each time?
Depends a bit how you hedge, but assuming you offer a price to hedge at and get taken you're on average taking a worse price than BSP by 1/2 a tick assuming BSP is on average in the middle of the gap.
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