Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

I'll just continue this shall I then...?
Screenshot 2021-09-23 at 07.50.56.png

Was the losing month (-300) worth the lessons then? Do you feel you got good value for it?

If yes, then completely changing direction again maybe not the best idea.

Trying to work out if the answer is yes or no, I think it's "maybe" ! and i'm not changing direction, as you infer I would be starting from scratch again.
So the dog bot is struggling, August I think was a bit lucky for it. Also horse bot has being rubbish, i've got a new one running now.
The thing is with no-hedge bots, there is the inevitable drawdowns that are normal, but I could do without that stress at the moment!

[arch4672]

I'll just continue this shall I then...?
Screenshot 2021-09-23 at 07.50.56.png

Was the losing month (-300) worth the lessons then? Do you feel you got good value for it?

If yes, then completely changing direction again maybe not the best idea.

Trying to work out if the answer is yes or no, I think it's "maybe" ! and i'm not changing direction, as you infer I would be starting from scratch again.
So the dog bot is struggling, August I think was a bit lucky for it. Also horse bot has being rubbish, i've got a new one running now.
The thing is with no-hedge bots, there is the inevitable drawdowns that are normal, but I could do without that stress at the moment!

Whilst drawdowns are inevitable, I'm not sure that it is normal to have a £300 drawdown with a new bot if the strategy behind it has been well thought out. In the BFLW slack, people with far more experience and success will still start of with small banks (£200) and stakes when trying out a new idea and not expect to lose it. If it's well thought out it, the stakes will naturally grow.

[goat68]

Was the losing month (-300) worth the lessons then? Do you feel you got good value for it?

If yes, then completely changing direction again maybe not the best idea.

Trying to work out if the answer is yes or no, I think it's "maybe" ! and i'm not changing direction, as you infer I would be starting from scratch again.
So the dog bot is struggling, August I think was a bit lucky for it. Also horse bot has being rubbish, i've got a new one running now.
The thing is with no-hedge bots, there is the inevitable drawdowns that are normal, but I could do without that stress at the moment!

Whilst drawdowns are inevitable, I'm not sure that it is normal to have a £300 drawdown with a new bot if the strategy behind it has been well thought out. In the BFLW slack, people with far more experience and success will still start of with small banks (£200) and stakes when trying out a new idea and not expect to lose it. If it's well thought out it, the stakes will naturally grow.

Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?

[Kai]

Trying to work out if the answer is yes or no, I think it's "maybe" ! and i'm not changing direction, as you infer I would be starting from scratch again.
So the dog bot is struggling, August I think was a bit lucky for it. Also horse bot has being rubbish, i've got a new one running now.
The thing is with no-hedge bots, there is the inevitable drawdowns that are normal, but I could do without that stress at the moment!

Whilst drawdowns are inevitable, I'm not sure that it is normal to have a £300 drawdown with a new bot if the strategy behind it has been well thought out. In the BFLW slack, people with far more experience and success will still start of with small banks (£200) and stakes when trying out a new idea and not expect to lose it. If it's well thought out it, the stakes will naturally grow.

Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?

Yes, but you are actually the one that chooses your staking plan and determines your potential losses in advance, so can't exactly act surprised later or pin the blame on borrowed ideas etc since it's so easy to botch the execution part.

If you find the losses/lessons too expensive, the question is did you really have to pay £300 there last month, or could you learn the same things for like £30 instead? So try to find some answers and adjust accordingly if needed etc.

[goat68]

Whilst drawdowns are inevitable, I'm not sure that it is normal to have a £300 drawdown with a new bot if the strategy behind it has been well thought out. In the BFLW slack, people with far more experience and success will still start of with small banks (£200) and stakes when trying out a new idea and not expect to lose it. If it's well thought out it, the stakes will naturally grow.

Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?

Yes, but you are actually the one that chooses your staking plan and determines your potential losses in advance, so can't exactly act surprised later or pin the blame on borrowed ideas etc since it's so easy to botch the execution part.

If you find the losses/lessons too expensive, the question is did you really have to pay £300 there last month, or could you learn the same things for like £30 instead? So try to find some answers and adjust accordingly if needed etc.

I find I the edge dissappears "hedging" because the hedge bet is -EV. And I can't go below min Betfair bet size

[Trader Pat]

Trying to work out if the answer is yes or no, I think it's "maybe" ! and i'm not changing direction, as you infer I would be starting from scratch again.
So the dog bot is struggling, August I think was a bit lucky for it. Also horse bot has being rubbish, i've got a new one running now.
The thing is with no-hedge bots, there is the inevitable drawdowns that are normal, but I could do without that stress at the moment!

Whilst drawdowns are inevitable, I'm not sure that it is normal to have a £300 drawdown with a new bot if the strategy behind it has been well thought out. In the BFLW slack, people with far more experience and success will still start of with small banks (£200) and stakes when trying out a new idea and not expect to lose it. If it's well thought out it, the stakes will naturally grow.

Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?

£10 is quite a large stake size just for testing purposes. When I'm testing a strategy, probably like most others I always use Betfair minimum stakes. It's even easier to that now since they've lowered their minimum stake to £1.

[goat68]

Whilst drawdowns are inevitable, I'm not sure that it is normal to have a £300 drawdown with a new bot if the strategy behind it has been well thought out. In the BFLW slack, people with far more experience and success will still start of with small banks (£200) and stakes when trying out a new idea and not expect to lose it. If it's well thought out it, the stakes will naturally grow.

Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?

£10 is quite a large stake size just for testing purposes. When I'm testing a strategy, probably like most others I always use Betfair minimum stakes. It's even easier to that now since they've lowered their minimum stake to £1.

Sorry I wasn't clear, I am that's £10 back an lay liability, so at odds 11.0, i'd back £1 or lay £1

[Kai]

I know it's an unpopular opinion but if you really feel you're getting nowhere you might as well pay for a concrete trading course instead, would cost less and at least you'd know which trading concepts still work etc, worst case you have a solid reference point to build on. Obviously big shortcuts exist and not everyone is selling crap, there are low-key traders that offer stupid value for whatever reason.

Because ultimately it doesn't matter whether you pay £300 to the market or to someone directly, at the end of the day your money goes to real traders just the same.

[Trader Pat]

Yeah, so i'm using min stakes £10 Back&Lay liability on Limit orders and trying to keep system drawdowns to -£100. I could try the BetAngel "trick" to use smaller stakes than Betfair minimums, ie.the Back at 1000, cancel a chunk and move, but i'm concerned with not running under a BA subscription that i'd get account restricted quickly doing that.....?

£10 is quite a large stake size just for testing purposes. When I'm testing a strategy, probably like most others I always use Betfair minimum stakes. It's even easier to that now since they've lowered their minimum stake to £1.

Sorry I wasn't clear, I am that's £10 back an lay liability, so at odds 11.0, i'd back £1 or lay £1

OK, thought it sounded a bit big!

[Kai]

Because ultimately it doesn't matter whether you pay £300 to the market or to someone directly, at the end of the day your money goes to real traders just the same.

But of course our ego feels much better if those transactions are not made directly, but via the market instead Despite pure logic!

[goat68]

I have two updated/new bots now running:
- uk dogs
- aus horses
Both show a backtest P-value of 0.5% on 4 months backtest
Will see how they go forward................
(I'm suspecting i'm just a good "fitter"!)

[goat68]

Backtests:

Screenshot 2021-09-24 at 16.47.04.png

Screenshot 2021-09-24 at 16.48.22.png

[arch4672]

I assume you plotted the signals you're using for these bots against cumulative pnl and they looked good?

[goat68]

I assume you plotted the signals you're using for these bots against cumulative pnl and they looked good?

Sort of...
So there's essentially 2 "dependent" signals in the above, let's say A & B.

If I plot cumulative PnL for A alone it ends at -£1500 after 8000+ selections
If I plot cumulative PnL for B alone it ends at breakeven after 8000+ selections
If I plot cumulative PnL for A+B you get above +£600

[goat68]

A made up example of A and B:
A) Bet when every selection 10% below next fav
B) Bet on Thursdays

A+B) bet on every selection 10% below next fav on Thursdays !