Trading What I see !?

[Realrocknrolla]

Well AUS horse bot doing rubbish today, every one a loser, arghhh variance!
Screenshot 2021-09-29 at 10.55.23.png

Are you sure it's variance, or it's just that your backfitted strategy isn't very good?

quite possibly!
I think I might have to start not relying on backtesting so much, it's far too easy to just "fit" things it would seem...

What happened to your Inplay ideas?

[goat68]

Starting to come to the conclusion it's just not possible to find an edge based purely on technical price action.
Which maybe the case, as with 1000s of very smart algo traders out there and throw in some advanced AI/ML systems, anything technical would be found very quickly and squashed...

[goat68]

Are you sure it's variance, or it's just that your backfitted strategy isn't very good?

quite possibly!
I think I might have to start not relying on backtesting so much, it's far too easy to just "fit" things it would seem...

What happened to your Inplay ideas?

First, i've not got any inplay ideas as such! but thought i'd pursue the many many hours i've put into what i've done so far pre-race, before giving up on it.

[goat68]

Just had another peek at bot, down -£59 today, 12 losses out of 14 markets
This is a mugs game

[beermonsterman]

My automation does well and its a simple but affective bot they are out there goat just need to keep things simple

[goat68]

My automation does well and its a simple but affective bot they are out there goat just need to keep things simple

My current bots are simple, i'm thinking i've gone too simple:
- WoM > 75% or <25%
- Price between 2 and 3.75
- TotalVolume 75% of expected start volume
Trigger: Back or Lay

I'm right pissed off, today bots have lost me -£95, 14 losing markets out of 20

[goat68]

Just turned all bots off, they are a waste...
September:

Screenshot 2021-09-29 at 20.27.18.png

[beermonsterman]

What works for me is high liquidity markets my automation will trade exactly how i want it too in high volume/liquid markets and would be an absolute disaster in low volume liquid markets it is a big player that most dont think about

[LinusP]

My automation does well and its a simple but affective bot they are out there goat just need to keep things simple

My current bots are simple, i'm thinking i've gone too simple:
- WoM > 75% or <25%
- Price between 2 and 3.75
- TotalVolume 75% of expected start volume
Trigger: Back or Lay

I'm right pissed off, today bots have lost me -£95, 14 losing markets out of 20

If you are not enjoying it anymore stop, don’t waste any more money.

[goat68]

My automation does well and its a simple but affective bot they are out there goat just need to keep things simple

My current bots are simple, i'm thinking i've gone too simple:
- WoM > 75% or <25%
- Price between 2 and 3.75
- TotalVolume 75% of expected start volume
Trigger: Back or Lay

I'm right pissed off, today bots have lost me -£95, 14 losing markets out of 20

If you are not enjoying it anymore stop, don’t waste any more money.

Thanks for your honest advice Linus, i'm seriously thinking about it at the moment. I've just being staring at Dallas's automation files, but not sure i've got the energy.

[goat68]

So for example "Lay the poor starter bot": viewtopic.php?f=52&t=12100
What I think about with this, is so the theory is horse drifts 10ticks after start, but to make money from this the price still has to be value? regardless of the fact it's slipped 10ticks. How do you really know? don't think you do? In reality it's slipped 10ticks due to a poor start, and the price then being offered is based on Exchange backers & layers opinions... If everyone is actually using this bot, i'd actually do the opposite...?

[wearthefoxhat]

So for example "Lay the poor starter bot": viewtopic.php?f=52&t=12100
What I think about with this, is so the theory is horse drifts 10ticks after start, but to make money from this the price still has to be value? regardless of the fact it's slipped 10ticks. How do you really know? don't think you do? In reality it's slipped 10ticks due to a poor start, and the price then being offered is based on Exchange backers & layers opinions... If everyone is actually using this bot, i'd actually do the opposite...?

The principle of using this type of bot and laying a "value" selection, will depend on it having been overbet pre-off. ie: The sentiment is that a runner will establish a quick lead and DOB/HOB/QOB.

The intial research could be to look at the pace cards and if there was a steamer pre-off on a runner that is likely to lead, and then it starts poorly, you have a likely candidate. If it starts well, then the bot will not fire as the selection's price will drop further.

[foxwood]

So for example "Lay the poor starter bot": viewtopic.php?f=52&t=12100
What I think about with this, is so the theory is horse drifts 10ticks after start, but to make money from this the price still has to be value? regardless of the fact it's slipped 10ticks. How do you really know? don't think you do? In reality it's slipped 10ticks due to a poor start, and the price then being offered is based on Exchange backers & layers opinions... If everyone is actually using this bot, i'd actually do the opposite...?

That bot has nothing to do with "value" imho. It's simply trying to make a trade out of a commonly observed market reaction to a real-world event - ie when certain runners are slow out of the gate they will often drift quite a bit higher. It's not an outright lay which would be a "value" decision.

I haven't downloaded it but the specification is quite clear in the first 3 paras - a bit that may be missing is to take a smaller green or to red-up when the runner fails to drift enough to make the trade. That would be down to the user to fine tune as with all Dallas' offerings.

You would need to be selective on race type, distance, timing, etc and tune the mechanism in practice mode. Then, when that looks like it is working correctly, go live with small stakes. Rinse and repeat based on that experience.

[decomez6]

My current bots are simple, i'm thinking i've gone too simple:
- WoM > 75% or <25%
- Price between 2 and 3.75
- TotalVolume 75% of expected start volume
Trigger: Back or Lay

+1
too simple ....but...on the plus side , easy to diagnose.
i personally would have such a set up for a servant when manually trading. it will monitor the price point pressure as i keep an eye on those spoofers in conjunction with the volume bar which is a better indicator of real volume matched.

i also see some problems with the boxes you tick before executing . they seem to be based on a false premise :

1. WOM
-how much of it is down to cross matching and spoofs ?
why 75% any historical evidence ? in the same race/event/going/jockey/owner/ratings/...............ETC any fundamentals could make or break it.
do you know why 75% is performing better in one race and not the other?

2. expected Total volume 75 %
how do you calculate this?
-an accumilatve average of the same race over how long of a period ?
do you consider seasonality and other conflicting fixtures that could dry up the volume flow E.g when another race is delayed and the money arrives late or do not arrive at all?

3. price 2 - 3.75
how do you choose when more than one selection have identical WOM , VOL and PRC...... you need more variables to determine a lay and rule a back vise/vasa

My take Novice take:
testing is great ! you are in the right place.......if i had your skills i would spend less time thinking about the testing and concentrate on putting some 'MEAT' on the 'Bone'
make the bot do some machine learning

have some good old fun and try step away from the blue screens for some time . things seem to work better when you are in a less tense state and you will look at the bot differently .

[arch4672]

My automation does well and its a simple but affective bot they are out there goat just need to keep things simple

My current bots are simple, i'm thinking i've gone too simple:
- WoM > 75% or <25%
- Price between 2 and 3.75
- TotalVolume 75% of expected start volume
Trigger: Back or Lay

I'm right pissed off, today bots have lost me -£95, 14 losing markets out of 20

If you are not enjoying it anymore stop, don’t waste any more money.

+1

Stop wasting your money and do something more worthwhile.