Trading What I see !?

[ShaunWhite]

Profit = 1.09

You can tell many different stories with the same set of stats. From your numbers...

18 days on a + 0.3343 trend might say you're just suffering a bit of drawdown and should be on £6

Screenshot_10.png

Likewise after 18 days you start to get the first hint at the normal distribution of your daily PL and you can start to infer things from that...i just did it freehand and it obviously won't go negative like my red line did.

Screenshot_12.png

Then again, even with a random strategy that's 50-50 up/down per race, hitting 79 or better out of 154 is a 40.5% chance, ie very likey. 90 +ves out of 154 would be 2.18% and much more conclusive. Make it 100+/154 and that's a nailed on strategy because you'd only hit that 0.01% (actually 1 in 7,651) of the time if you only had something random. (all assuming avg win is approx avg loss, there are of course strategies that win 500 out of 510 races and lose money)

Just a reminder : if you're doing this day after day with tiny stakes and/or just staying connected for hours on end there's a good chance you'll end up with a restricted account. And fair enough too, some of us are trying to work and we don't want Betfair's servers overloaded with data harvesters all funded by our commission

[Trader724]

Data farmers are also part of the ecosystem since some of them will become commission payers. I'm convinced that betfair is aware of this and is quite understanding. In streaming mode the servers are not required as in API-NG, maybe that's why it was introduced?

[ShaunWhite]

Data farmers are also part of the ecosystem since some of them will become commission payers. I'm convinced that betfair is aware of this and is quite understanding. In streaming mode the servers are not required as in API-NG, maybe that's why it was introduced?

Now you mention it I don't think you see as many posts about restrictions as you once did.

[goat68]

Data farmers are also part of the ecosystem since some of them will become commission payers. I'm convinced that betfair is aware of this and is quite understanding. In streaming mode the servers are not required as in API-NG, maybe that's why it was introduced?

Now you mention it I don't think you see as many posts about restrictions as you once did.

fyi, I am live trading as well, it gives validation my backtest produces nearly the same results as well. Although I am using minimal stakes=£18(Back&Lay Liability)==£2 @ 10.0, £[email protected], ...

[goat68]

So a bit of an upturn today "live" bot made +£2, interesting backtest on the same recorded data showed +£3, seems backtest got thrown by an extra spike trigger, that's the problem with backtesting of an "offer" price strategy using 1second data, but these variations roughly even out.

Anyway, even better news, I spent some time this evening analysing the bot triggers, and realised a couple that were a bit dubious, had a good careful think and re-wrote those bits with a more "reasoned" algo, and it made a significant difference, the after Cheltenham performance is now around 0.5% rather than 0.03%!:
2021/03/22 : Mon : 0.80
2021/03/23 : Tue : -0.20
2021/03/24 : Wed : 4.04
2021/03/25 : Thr : 1.14
2021/03/26 : Fri : 0.02
2021/03/27 : Sat : -0.26
2021/03/28 : Sun : -0.94
2021/03/29 : Mon : 2.62
2021/03/30 : Tue : 2.27
2021/03/31 : Wed : 1.09
2021/04/01 : Thr : 2.43
2021/04/02 : Fri : 0.34
2021/04/03 : Sat : 0.68
2021/04/04 : Sun : -0.50
2021/04/05 : Mon : 1.22
2021/04/06 : Tue : -0.27
2021/04/07 : Wed : -0.22
2021/04/08 : Thr : 1.00
2021/04/09 : Fri : 3.34

==> Worst day = -0.94
==> Best day = 4.04
==> Winning days = 13
==> Losing days = 6
Sun : -1.44
Mon : 4.63
Tue : 1.79
Wed : 4.90
Thr : 4.56
Fri : 3.71
Sat : 0.41

Profit = 18.58
Wins = 92
Avg Win = 0.47
Losses = 66
Avg Loss = -0.38
S/Rate = 58%
Total trades = 158 from 1174 analysed markets
% turnOv = 0.53%

Performance across the whole dataset is also roughly consistent from start to end and a good overall result:
==> Worst day = -2.85
==> Best day = 5.88
==> Winning days = 21
==> Losing days = 12
Sun : -4.30
Mon : 6.09
Tue : -1.06
Wed : 6.45
Thr : 14.88
Fri : 4.88
Sat : 5.83

Profit = 32.77
Wins = 164
Avg Win = 0.50
Losses = 123
Avg Loss = -0.40
S/Rate = 57%
Total trades = 287 from 1174 analysed markets
% turnOv = 0.52%

And 10x random 30% datasets show good result:
% turnOv = 0.79%
% turnOv = 0.51%
% turnOv = 0.62%
% turnOv = 0.40%
% turnOv = 0.59%
% turnOv = 0.45%
% turnOv = 0.38%
% turnOv = 0.74%
% turnOv = 0.50%
% turnOv = 0.97%

Anyway, i've been here before...as the saying goes.. but i'm confident it's an improvement. The real positive result would be to get a decent +ve week going forward this week.....

[ShaunWhite]

that's the problem with backtesting of an "offer" price strategy using 1second data, but these variations roughly even out.

You can't test offers with that data to degree of usefullness. You're looking for an edge iro a couple of percent so your margin of error needs to be 1/10th of that. Eg £2 live vs £3 test, a 50% difference ! It's not one that will balance out either because your fill rate is a guess.

Any chance of a couple of pictures rather than all those numbers?

[goat68]

that's the problem with backtesting of an "offer" price strategy using 1second data, but these variations roughly even out.

You can't test offers with that data to degree of usefullness. You're looking for an edge iro a couple of percent so your margin of error needs to be 1/10th of that. Eg £2 live vs £3 test, a 50% difference ! It's not one that will balance out either because your fill rate is a guess.

Any chance of a couple of pictures rather than all those numbers?

The £2 vs £3, was one trade, scenario was fav2 and 3 spiked opposing directions, live offered on 2 but didn't match, bt offered on 3 and matched and made £1...the other 8 trades today matched within a few pence.
Usually difference over whole day is about 20p, sometimes +ve sometimes -ve. Im not too worried about it, and ive made the backtest offer as best i can anyway,and i fully understand it's limitations..

[goat68]

that's the problem with backtesting of an "offer" price strategy using 1second data, but these variations roughly even out.

You can't test offers with that data to degree of usefullness. You're looking for an edge iro a couple of percent so your margin of error needs to be 1/10th of that. Eg £2 live vs £3 test, a 50% difference ! It's not one that will balance out either because your fill rate is a guess.

Any chance of a couple of pictures rather than all those numbers?

Ill do some charts once ive forward tested the update for a few days

[goat68]

So updated bot ready for the new week. Had a trial run today, but had some issues with transform from backtest program strategy to Guardian baf rules, a couple of misstakes, hopefully all ironed out now, and fairly sure backtest to Guardian equivalence is pretty good.
Fingers crossed this week...

[goat68]

Backtest over my complete dataset (3rdMar->11thApr) for the latest bot, here's hoping forward is the same!!:

BackT1.png

[goat68]

Just calculated from my backtest program the bot's commission/netprofit %, and works out at about 5%. Which means if I was a PC payer i'd have to pay 15% tax, ouch!
I think I should take note of any breakeven commission generator bot's I come across

[Realrocknrolla]

Backtest over my complete dataset (3rdMar->11thApr) for the latest bot, here's hoping forward is the same!!:
BackT1.png

Not posted in a while but had a good read.

Looks promising.

Good luck

[goat68]

Backtest over my complete dataset (3rdMar->11thApr) for the latest bot, here's hoping forward is the same!!:
BackT1.png

Not posted in a while but had a good read.

Looks promising.

Good luck

thanks, me too
I do like the stairway PnL, sort of the theme of profitable PnLs i've seen whereby they chunder around a bit then have a big leap before chundering again...

[Trader724]

It depends on how many strategies are combined and how smart you make them work together. An ideal P&L has no noticeable drawdown. That's when you know you are a good trader.

[goat68]

It depends on how many strategies are combined and how smart you make them work together. An ideal P&L has no noticeable drawdown. That's when you know you are a good trader.

I think it depends on your type of strategy mainly as well, for example "swing" trading is more reliant on big wins, whereas "scalping" is lot's of small steps. My bot is a "swinger" !