Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:02 pm
Going to invert my current bot for the next week, see what happens
Same thing will happen.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Trader724 wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:08 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:02 pm
Going to invert my current bot for the next week, see what happens
Same thing will happen.
Go on then, explain why?
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

You may still get a slowly slipping equity curve because of commission eating away at your balance, depends how many trades you've done. Like Trader Pat suggested, break it down into different race types. Perhaps invert it for a week then the week after try this:

Run it normally on the types of markets that it worked on originally over this two week sample AND run it inverted on the type of markets that proves to be successful next week. If you differentiate it slightly, a small alteration could nudge it profitable. I still think you need a large sample though before you can make any firm decisions; try not to tweak things too much.

Did the bot get altered at all once you hit the -5 on the y axis? Things seem to have got a bit more choppier, just an observation.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

CallumPerry wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 8:25 am
You may still get a slowly slipping equity curve because of commission eating away at your balance, depends how many trades you've done. Like Trader Pat suggested, break it down into different race types. Perhaps invert it for a week then the week after try this:

Run it normally on the types of markets that it worked on originally over this two week sample AND run it inverted on the type of markets that proves to be successful next week. If you differentiate it slightly, a small alteration could nudge it profitable. I still think you need a large sample though before you can make any firm decisions; try not to tweak things too much.

Did the bot get altered at all once you hit the -5 on the y axis? Things seem to have got a bit more choppier, just an observation.
Thanks for the feedback Callum, yes it did get changed i had 2 bots and I cut out 1 that seemed not right, i also rweaked the other to give it more room as it's stop out method was too tight, hence why got more choppy...
265 markets so far, about 400 trades.
I like what you suggest cheers
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goat68
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Trader724 wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:08 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:02 pm
Going to invert my current bot for the next week, see what happens
Same thing will happen.
So if you take a profitable bot and invert it, is it still profitable?
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alexmr2
Posts: 766
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goat68 wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:02 pm
Going to invert my current bot for the next week, see what happens
Someone once posted a video on here where people looked at inverting losing trading stategies in financial markets to see if doing the exact opposite would be profitable, it wasn't.

One of the reasons I think trading is so difficult nowadays is because on some markets it doesn't matter if you choose the back or lay side at the wrong position, the market does a big sweep of both so that anyone who got in at that position would either have their stoploss taken or be holding onto their losers too long to be profitable in the long term. Not all markets do this, some trades don't go into the red at all and knowing the difference I imagine takes years of experience to spot.

I try to frame my trades, pause and think about it logically.

The traded volume represents a pub and the price is a drunk person moving up and down inside that pub at random. The likelihood is that the drunk person is going to get thrown out of either the top door or bottom door of the pub eventually. The moment you enter the market is the moment that a fight breaks out and the bouncers come to throw the drunk person out of the pub. So you have the ability to choose where the fight breaks out, so choose it the place where you think the drunk person will be put through the least pain if thrown out the red door. If you choose close to the door then the drunk person doesn't get thrown out as far as if you choose the wrong side or middle, then they have much more room to get dragged along the floor before being thrown out which would be the most painful and the biggest loss with the most red ticks
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Realrocknrolla
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alexmr2 wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 9:09 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:02 pm
Going to invert my current bot for the next week, see what happens
Someone once posted a video on here where people looked at inverting losing trading stategies in financial markets to see if doing the exact opposite would be profitable, it wasn't.

One of the reasons I think trading is so difficult nowadays is because on some markets it doesn't matter if you choose the back or lay side at the wrong position, the market does a big sweep of both so that anyone who got in at that position would either have their stoploss taken or be holding onto their losers too long to be profitable in the long term. Not all markets do this, some trades don't go into the red at all and knowing the difference I imagine takes years of experience to spot.

I try to frame my trades, pause and think about it logically.

The traded volume represents a pub and the price is a drunk person moving up and down inside that pub at random. The likelihood is that the drunk person is going to get thrown out of either the top door or bottom door of the pub eventually. The moment you enter the market is the moment that a fight breaks out and the bouncers come to throw the drunk person out of the pub. So you have the ability to choose where the fight breaks out, so choose it the place where you think the drunk person will be put through the least pain if thrown out the red door. If you choose close to the door then the drunk person doesn't get thrown out as far as if you choose the wrong side or middle, then they have much more room to get dragged along the floor before being thrown out which would be the most painful and the biggest loss with the most red ticks
Haha funny analogy!

Bit like the red pill 💊 or the blue pill from Morpheus!
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Trader724
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goat68 wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 8:35 am
Trader724 wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:08 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:02 pm
Going to invert my current bot for the next week, see what happens
Same thing will happen.
So if you take a profitable bot and invert it, is it still profitable?
By reversing a profitable strategy you lose much more. Let's say after 100 trades you made 10£ and you paid 2£ commission. If you reversed the strategy you would have lost 12£ plus commission. If you reverse a random strategy it will still be random.
vhdgkl
Posts: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 9:26 am

What difficulties do you have on betfair, particularly in the horse market?
That the money in back and lay is distributed in such a way that it gives you almost a tick disadvantage whether you start with the back or the lay...if you don't have a valid reason to place a trade then you will lose money, whatever position you open.

On betfair you pay almost the spread. This is the efficiency that has been achieved(Especially in the last 5 minutes when the money comes in.This is the reason why almost everyone loses in horse races.they pay the spread )
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

alexmr2 wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 9:09 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:02 pm
Going to invert my current bot for the next week, see what happens
Someone once posted a video on here where people looked at inverting losing trading stategies in financial markets to see if doing the exact opposite would be profitable, it wasn't.

One of the reasons I think trading is so difficult nowadays is because on some markets it doesn't matter if you choose the back or lay side at the wrong position, the market does a big sweep of both so that anyone who got in at that position would either have their stoploss taken or be holding onto their losers too long to be profitable in the long term. Not all markets do this, some trades don't go into the red at all and knowing the difference I imagine takes years of experience to spot.

I try to frame my trades, pause and think about it logically.

The traded volume represents a pub and the price is a drunk person moving up and down inside that pub at random. The likelihood is that the drunk person is going to get thrown out of either the top door or bottom door of the pub eventually. The moment you enter the market is the moment that a fight breaks out and the bouncers come to throw the drunk person out of the pub. So you have the ability to choose where the fight breaks out, so choose it the place where you think the drunk person will be put through the least pain if thrown out the red door. If you choose close to the door then the drunk person doesn't get thrown out as far as if you choose the wrong side or middle, then they have much more room to get dragged along the floor before being thrown out which would be the most painful and the biggest loss with the most red ticks
Nice analogy!

I watched that video and it was flawed because it was a direct invert if i remember correct, ie.the biggest loss was the previous winner they let run...of course you're not going to run a loser!
When I say invert i mean when I previously had a back signal and backed, i now lay, but I then use the same lay bet position management as before.
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

You can invert your signals but the points the other traders have mentioned still occur. As you're already aware by now you have commission eating away at profits and the spread to deal with and noise in the markets. Nonetheless, I still believe it's not a bad idea to try because what you will learn is which markets to deploy your strategy in normally and which work with the inverted signals and from there you are starting to learn about matching your strategy to the correct market.

Differentiate between tight races (odds are all very similar), ones with a clear fav, one with two favs, one with three favs etc. Break horse racing into handicaps and non-handicaps, jumps etc. Problem you then face is your sample gets split rather this and you can fall victim to over-fitting the data. It's this constant grey area that you have to battle when automating. I find it sadly thrilling and it's important to know there is NO right answer. Just find your own path and tests, fiddle with the system as much as you need to. Be aware of doing too much though. Keep good records and approach problems from many angles.
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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Here's a two trader example @ 0% commission:

Trader 1 is a losing swing trader, & trader 2 thinks he'll be profitable by trading against him (but has to cross the spread)):

Market 1:
Trader 1: Backs £175 @ 2.86, Exits @ 2.70 = +£10.36
Trader 2: Lays £175 @ 2.88, Exits @ 2.68 = -£13.05

Market 2:
Trader 1: Backs £170 @ 2.94, Exits @ 2.68 = +£16.50
Trader 2: Lays £170 @ 2.96, Exits @ 2.66 = -£19.18

Market 3:
Trader 1: Backs £189 @ 2.64, Exits @ 3.10 = -£28.10
Trader 2: Lays £189 @ 2.66, Exits @ 3.05 = +£24.22

Trader 1 result: -£1.04
Trader 2 result: -£8.01
Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sat Jan 16, 2021 7:03 pm
Just watched Kemp 18:50 and there were some decent moves, but my bot picked none of them!! Interesting watch Elmjor, and it came in quite a bit, but I could see no "indicator" it would do that, so not surprising bot didn't either.
I am thinking maybe entering at random is better, as if you create a bot based on indicators they are lagging and as far as I can see no indicator. I'm guessing with so many 1000s of traders/bots, anything obvious is going to be -ev.
I don't automate, but I don't believe that's true, I think there's still plenty of room in the market for 'obvious' strategies. It just needs to be something that happens 51% of the time and you can either control the downside, or anticipate enough upside to compensate. There are many more of those scenarios than I'm able to take advantage of, but slowly learning.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

ruthlessimon wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:26 pm
Here's a two trader example @ 0% commission:

Trader 1 is a losing swing trader, & trader 2 thinks he'll be profitable by trading against him (but has to cross the spread)):

Market 1:
Trader 1: Backs £175 @ 2.86, Exits @ 2.70 = +£10.36
Trader 2: Lays £175 @ 2.88, Exits @ 2.68 = -£13.05

Market 2:
Trader 1: Backs £170 @ 2.94, Exits @ 2.68 = +£16.50
Trader 2: Lays £170 @ 2.96, Exits @ 2.66 = -£19.18

Market 3:
Trader 1: Backs £189 @ 2.64, Exits @ 3.10 = -£28.10
Trader 2: Lays £189 @ 2.66, Exits @ 3.05 = +£24.22

Trader 1 result: -£1.04
Trader 2 result: -£8.01
As i said above when I say invert i dont mean exiting at the same time, that would be stupid. So inverting the entry, but same exit strategy.
So in your example market3, trader 2 Lays @2.66 and market runs all the way to 3.5 for a nice win.
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

It seemed to me that you actually want to reverse the whole strategy in the hope that you will be successful, you did not mention that you only want to reverse the entry criteria. If you took into account what I said earlier, you would understand that you only want to reverse if you are strongly negative, more than twice the commission paid. It is obvious that you are looking for a methodology to reach a profitable strategy, but if you do not take into account the valuable advice that others give you, you will not succeed too soon. Today you received some exceptional advice and if you do not consider it then others definitely will, and they are the ones to whom you will give your money soon. :twisted:
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