Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Trader Pat wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:21 pm
goat68 wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:17 pm
Bot has had an awful 2 days, all of last weeks profit gone and more.. Plus an extra double wammy of a bug in a rule which cost me an extra -£3. Just give me a break please....!?
Anyway bug fixed, will let it run the week, then evaluate again.
I really don't know how anyone makes a profit in these markets.
Are you still using 3 tick stop losses?
Nope that went ages ago, I have a more leanient exit now.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Trader Pat wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:21 pm
goat68 wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:17 pm
Bot has had an awful 2 days, all of last weeks profit gone and more.. Plus an extra double wammy of a bug in a rule which cost me an extra -£3. Just give me a break please....!?
Anyway bug fixed, will let it run the week, then evaluate again.
I really don't know how anyone makes a profit in these markets.
Are you still using 3 tick stop losses?
Also a more run winner exit as well
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

It might be just variance... lets see how the rest of the week goes.....
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

It's reminding me of Peter's variance video with the red and green squares, just a few more red in today's case!
Not heard from Peter on my thread for a while... you still there?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

He'll be watching Southampton of course...!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Here you go I will share my pain, s**t happens !
PnLChart.jpg
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
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An amazingly straight lower trend line on that!
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

better change some parameters looks a sustained trend
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

goat68 wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:17 pm
Bot has had an awful 2 days, all of last weeks profit gone and more.. Plus an extra double wammy of a bug in a rule which cost me an extra -£3. Just give me a break please....!?
Anyway bug fixed, will let it run the week, then evaluate again.
I really don't know how anyone makes a profit in these markets.
It is possible to have a very profitable strategy and yet to have quite long drawdown periods which as you streamline the strategy will become smaller and rarer. Don't forget to use the minimum stakes and not in relation to your bank size.
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Indeed the equity curve doesn't look very promising but I would continue to run the original strategy until I notice that it is unprofitable in absolutely all conditions and separately I would run other modified versions until I find useful lurking variables (they are there... just... lurking).
vhdgkl
Posts: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 9:26 am

goat68 wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:17 pm
Bot has had an awful 2 days, all of last weeks profit gone and more.. Plus an extra double wammy of a bug in a rule which cost me an extra -£3. Just give me a break please....!?
Anyway bug fixed, will let it run the week, then evaluate again.
I really don't know how anyone makes a profit in these markets.
I don't remember what your strike rate is? If it was around 50% or more, apply the following strategy....

If I lose 3 times in a row in one day, the bot will shut down for the whole day.

There are days that have liquidity and days that have less liquidity....
If you divide the races by days of the week, I suspect that the worst days are Sunday, Monday and Tuesday... I think it's pretty likely that your BOT will work well tomorrow.
Screen the individual days with a filter like the one I suggested.... What do you think?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

vhdgkl wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:29 am
goat68 wrote:
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:17 pm
Bot has had an awful 2 days, all of last weeks profit gone and more.. Plus an extra double wammy of a bug in a rule which cost me an extra -£3. Just give me a break please....!?
Anyway bug fixed, will let it run the week, then evaluate again.
I really don't know how anyone makes a profit in these markets.
I don't remember what your strike rate is? If it was around 50% or more, apply the following strategy....

If I lose 3 times in a row in one day, the bot will shut down for the whole day.

There are days that have liquidity and days that have less liquidity....
If you divide the races by days of the week, I suspect that the worst days are Sunday, Monday and Tuesday... I think it's pretty likely that your BOT will work well tomorrow.
Screen the individual days with a filter like the one I suggested.... What do you think?
Nice idea thanks
Although with Guardian I am not sure you can store 'state' across markets?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Hmm, bot not doing much better today so far... all losers so far. But I can't blame bot, I just watched 1 race, a Mdn, and at 5mins there was a sudden move with volume, my bot got onboard, and as seems common nowadays after the move the market just chunders around going no-where, as though all the traders are trying to work it but to no avail... basically an efficient market. Someone puts a large order in, which you cannot predict, the market "shifts" then just stays there....

Anyway, the rule bug is fixed, which means my losses are small now.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Hmm, bots progress today: 9 markets, 9 losses, -£4.85
I'm just going upstairs to disable my Automation!!
I've had enough of the current settings, it needs a good tweak! I'm actually thinking since it seems to be very good at losing to reverse some logic. I suspect my "model" i've based it on is incorrect.
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

If you have so many consecutive losses, it means that your stop is too close.
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