Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

jamesg46 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:33 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:29 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:21 pm
I might think a break of 4.2 on Cuban Cigar could lead to a move to 5.0 (just as an example) with a bail out of a break below 4.0 so my upside potential would be considerably better than my downside, especially with below 4.0 having a decrease in increment size.... if that was my setup then I would consider that to be value to me & someone who I buy off who got in earlier is taking their value trade to the bank.... I have no idea what the SP will be and nor do I care.
Yeah sorry for your loss 😁 But profit doesn't mean value. Actually that's what I'm trying to say here.
I took the break of 5.6 on the 60 second chart on We Still Believe. I think the SP will be around 5s, I didn't care because the crossover point was working in my favour.
Nice
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

jimibt wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:52 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:37 pm
jimibt wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:20 pm


i see that more as luck/chance than anything tbh... altho volatility CAN get you out of sticky situations, it's far better to size up the market in advance and take positions that represent value from the off. i'm afraid in the early days, the above that you mention saw me lose more than one bank - potentially even in a single bet! :roll:
I don't know why I can't make myself understood.
A trading strategy takes advantage of price fluctuations regardless of value, while a betting strategy needs value for profit.
It is true that when you trade there are still bets but the fact that they are opposite removes the dependence on the selection result.
If the success of the trade does not depend on whether your selection wins or not, you are no longer interested in the value
yup, like yourself, have been doing this a while. all i'm saying is that you (or should i say I) cannot depend on random fluctuations to guide my strategies. and yes, win or lose it's not about that; agreed - but entry and exit informs us (even if laterally) as to whether we've tuned into value in the trade or straight bet.
I've been profitable for years so I must be really good at those random fluctuations. :)
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:29 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:21 pm
I might think a break of 4.2 on Cuban Cigar could lead to a move to 5.0 (just as an example) with a bail out of a break below 4.0 so my upside potential would be considerably better than my downside, especially with below 4.0 having a decrease in increment size.... if that was my setup then I would consider that to be value to me & someone who I buy off who got in earlier is taking their value trade to the bank.... I have no idea what the SP will be and nor do I care.
Yeah sorry for your loss 😁 But profit doesn't mean value. Actually that's what I'm trying to say here.
Profit isn't value but potential profit vs potential loss I would consider a very big factor in me percieving something to be of value. If a trade has the potential to pay me 2x what my max risk would be then I would take that trade every time as long as my strike rate on that setup was of a high enough %. If you saw something at £1 and you knew you could sell it for £3 then it's value, it makes no difference if your mate couldn't do the same & if it just so happened he could'nt sell it on for £3 because of whatever reason then it's of no value to him. What I'm saying is value can be very subjective, it doesn't have to be based on what you or I or anyone believe SP should be, it can simply be because you can make 2x your risk.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:47 pm
jimibt wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:52 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:37 pm

I don't know why I can't make myself understood.
A trading strategy takes advantage of price fluctuations regardless of value, while a betting strategy needs value for profit.
It is true that when you trade there are still bets but the fact that they are opposite removes the dependence on the selection result.
If the success of the trade does not depend on whether your selection wins or not, you are no longer interested in the value
yup, like yourself, have been doing this a while. all i'm saying is that you (or should i say I) cannot depend on random fluctuations to guide my strategies. and yes, win or lose it's not about that; agreed - but entry and exit informs us (even if laterally) as to whether we've tuned into value in the trade or straight bet.
I've been profitable for years so I must be really good at those random fluctuations. :)
Defo, you've maaged to find yourself a technique that works... is the technique not value? It's certainly valuable to you but not to me. I get what you were saying about not caring about value, but my assumption was that you were making that comment based on a perception that value was only a measure of the prices you take vs sp... and imo that's not true.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Blimey, there's me been busy losing exchange money, while you lot have been talking value here!!
Just read through all these posts, and I think you're all talking the same value! James's "value" is the same as Shaun's value, and the same as Trader724's value...
If price fluctuations over the longer term are random, then the only way to make money is for your overall net "positions" to be "value" relative to BSP. If you think about James's example Lay at 4.2, if the following price movement is random then after 1 min it could equally be at 4.4 or 4.0. Say he Lay'd at 4.2 and backed at 4.4. And say BSP was 5.0. So the Lay at 4.2 was value, the back at 4.4 was not, but the Lay at 4.2 was more value than the back at 4.4 "was not". If the BSP was 4.3, then both were "value".
That's how I read all the previous posts put together!
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

goat68 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 7:21 pm
Blimey, there's me been busy losing exchange money, while you lot have been talking value here!!
Just read through all these posts, and I think you're all talking the same value! James's "value" is the same as Shaun's value, and the same as Trader724's value...
If price fluctuations over the longer term are random, then the only way to make money is for your overall net "positions" to be "value" relative to BSP. If you think about James's example Lay at 4.2, if the following price movement is random then after 1 min it could equally be at 4.4 or 4.0. Say he Lay'd at 4.2 and backed at 4.4. And say BSP was 5.0. So the Lay at 4.2 was value, the back at 4.4 was not, but the Lay at 4.2 was more value than the back at 4.4 "was not". If the BSP was 4.3, then both were "value".
That's how I read all the previous posts put together!
Which ever way Trader724 wishes to look at it he cares about value, if he didn't he would be a net loser, which he isn't. I think what he and I was trying to get to is that we don't personally base our trade off of the price being a better one than SP. His value is in trading fluctuations, he knows his advantage points in the market that pay him more often than not & whenever he takes a trade be it a winner or a loser he's taking a price within a fluctuating market that's valuable to him.

Where wires got crossed was the assumption that ONLY prices that are better than SP are value. The difference between value bettors and price action traders is no different than the difference between investors and day traders. One is looking at fundamental value while the other is looking at value within the price action that suits their personal strategy/strategies. Value is everywhere.
Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:37 pm
jimibt wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:20 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:53 pm
You can also make money with a bad value bet as long as volatility allows you to place the opposite one at a favorable price.
i see that more as luck/chance than anything tbh... altho volatility CAN get you out of sticky situations, it's far better to size up the market in advance and take positions that represent value from the off. i'm afraid in the early days, the above that you mention saw me lose more than one bank - potentially even in a single bet! :roll:
I don't know why I can't make myself understood.
A trading strategy takes advantage of price fluctuations regardless of value, while a betting strategy needs value for profit.
It is true that when you trade there are still bets but the fact that they are opposite removes the dependence on the selection result.
If the success of the trade does not depend on whether your selection wins or not, you are no longer interested in the value
I'm saying the same thing james just said, I think, but from my perspective, what you said makes sense because I added one thing in my concept of what 'value' means and that's time. At different times in the market, it can be good value, though that assessment may expire. If you can consistently spot something you'll be able to trade for a profit, within an anticipated time frame, then that's still what I'd call value. At the off, it might be a bad bet, but that's only true if it was your intention to wait that long. Still, I think there's often a connection between good entries and beating the BSP, perhaps more so depending on how you trade.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Tetras wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:09 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:37 pm
jimibt wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:20 pm


i see that more as luck/chance than anything tbh... altho volatility CAN get you out of sticky situations, it's far better to size up the market in advance and take positions that represent value from the off. i'm afraid in the early days, the above that you mention saw me lose more than one bank - potentially even in a single bet! :roll:
I don't know why I can't make myself understood.
A trading strategy takes advantage of price fluctuations regardless of value, while a betting strategy needs value for profit.
It is true that when you trade there are still bets but the fact that they are opposite removes the dependence on the selection result.
If the success of the trade does not depend on whether your selection wins or not, you are no longer interested in the value
I'm saying the same thing james just said, I think, but from my perspective, what you said makes sense because I added one thing in my concept of what 'value' means and that's time. At different times in the market, it can be good value, though that assessment may expire. If you can consistently spot something you'll be able to trade for a profit, within an anticipated time frame, then that's still what I'd call value. At the off, it might be a bad bet, but that's only true if it was your intention to wait that long. Still, I think there's often a connection between good entries and beating the BSP, perhaps more so depending on how you trade.
Spot on.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

So continuing the "value" saga.. this is value I think based on the discussions:
- I have determined a market condition where over a short period of time the price is "more likely" to move 3 ticks down, than 3 ticks up...

yes?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

My bot is running a strategy based on the above, basically 3 tick profit target and 3 tick stop loss, trigger for "most likely" is a VWAP trend and traded volume move out of range. So just needs a 50+% strike rate to be profitable. 5 markets so far, and running at 20% currently, lets hope it picks up!!
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Getting worse 14% wins now
So obviously this is not working, it does imply, and agrees with what someone told me, that all the price movements are random. So having a +3/-3 profit/loss, will be -ev, in fact anything will be -ev with commission.
It comes back to value, and I can't see how you can judge value other than via fundamentals (form, pace, runners, course,..), and someone told me on Slack that fundamentals is very advanced to be successful at. But how can you gain any value edge any other way? price movements are random, so you will never make any money... :(
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

mmm, it's lost 8 of 9 trades now, make me think I should just switch it around, lay instead of back, back instead of lay...but the 1 tick spread is a significant hurdle there.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

someone said to me, think about why that favourite drifts 30seconds before the off? My answer is: random movement based on market participants, so it could equally have steamed in the last 30 seconds, or fundamental reason like playing up in the stall, bad commentator comment,... so none of these are automatable, at least not easily, I guess if you could find a live broadcast feed with a "captioning" API you could grep for commentator comments...?
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

All price movement is random? Not sure about that, sounds like a load of bollox to me. Maybe run some Pearson Correlation to check for yourself... I certainly don't see all price movement as random but that doesn't mean you should take mine or someone else's word for it.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Support and resistance isn't random, psychological points within the market aren't random, behaviour around such areas are more predictable than random & why does the price drift in the last 30 seconds? Well what's the context of the previous price action before the last 30 seconds? Was it a steamer, so people are closing out/greening up on the opposite side of the book. Is the horse playing up at the start? What a stupid question they asked, could be a few reasons, either way the price is moving and you can exploit it.
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