Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Inforaquid
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:11 am

napshnap wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:48 pm
Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:44 pm
napshnap wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:32 pm

Damn it, everybody has fancy databases and only I sit with a handmade skinny logs like a lazy lame-o((
Nothing fancy yet, Access database.
Inforaquid
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:11 am

goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 7:09 pm
Anyway i'm off on holiday until end of month, here's hoping bots will have paid for the holiday by the time I get back :mrgreen:
No doubt. Have fun!
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Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 7:14 pm
goat68 wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 7:09 pm
Anyway i'm off on holiday until end of month, here's hoping bots will have paid for the holiday by the time I get back :mrgreen:
No doubt. Have fun!
Looking at the travel chaos today they might have paid for them before you arrive :D
Inforaquid
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:11 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:02 pm
Inforaquid wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:38 pm

just hedge at BSP it perfectly OK.

Ok, chart includes the most recent results, profit replicates it pretty well, just fewer data points because I'm creating free bets which leaves much of the profit or loss unrealized. I wonder if there's any advantage to fully hedge vs. free bets. 🤔
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

FYI that's not my comment above. Not quite sure what's been editted to make it look like it was.
Inforaquid
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:11 am

I wrote that. I think I accidentally deleted some of the code.
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Inforaquid wrote:
Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:00 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:02 pm


just hedge at BSP it perfectly OK.

Ok, chart includes the most recent results, profit replicates it pretty well, just fewer data points because I'm creating free bets which leaves much of the profit or loss unrealized. I wonder if there's any advantage to fully hedge vs. free bets. 🤔
Yes there is, you can change the distribution and variance of the results, because they will be split into much smaller chunks and when you have opposite ones in the same market you will pay less commission.
Instead you will have to use higher stakes.
Inforaquid
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:11 am

Trader724 wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:45 am
Inforaquid wrote:
Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:00 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:02 pm


just hedge at BSP it perfectly OK.

Ok, chart includes the most recent results, profit replicates it pretty well, just fewer data points because I'm creating free bets which leaves much of the profit or loss unrealized. I wonder if there's any advantage to fully hedge vs. free bets. 🤔
Yes there is, you can change the distribution and variance of the results, because they will be split into much smaller chunks and when you have opposite ones in the same market you will pay less commission.
Instead you will have to use higher stakes.
Thanks guys, I really appreciate your kindness in sharing your experience which is invaluable and saves me days or weeks of work time that I can use to discover more advanced things. There are already a few people here to whom I owe like 1000 beers.
Inforaquid
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:11 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:40 pm

You mentioned trading 2000 selections, I trade about 1000 a day, 4.2 bets on each, and still I see the expected win rate vs BSP being up or down over 4-6 week periods.
Win rate of your strategy or the rate at which your selections win the event? I'm more concerned with the success of the strategy vs bsp, I can already see very large variance, perhaps that's to be expected given that the total variance is composed of three individual variances.
Leeds1919
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:20 pm

Inforaquid wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:43 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:40 pm

You mentioned trading 2000 selections, I trade about 1000 a day, 4.2 bets on each, and still I see the expected win rate vs BSP being up or down over 4-6 week periods.
Win rate of your strategy or the rate at which your selections win the event? I'm more concerned with the success of the strategy vs bsp, I can already see very large variance, perhaps that's to be expected given that the total variance is composed of three individual variances.
Stupid question but how can you chaps tell if you're beating BSP? Is it easy to do or do you need some kind of automation to do it? If I look back on yesterdays trades is there an easy way for me to tell if they beat BSP?

TIA
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Leeds1919 wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 11:52 am
Inforaquid wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:43 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:40 pm

You mentioned trading 2000 selections, I trade about 1000 a day, 4.2 bets on each, and still I see the expected win rate vs BSP being up or down over 4-6 week periods.
Win rate of your strategy or the rate at which your selections win the event? I'm more concerned with the success of the strategy vs bsp, I can already see very large variance, perhaps that's to be expected given that the total variance is composed of three individual variances.
Stupid question but how can you chaps tell if you're beating BSP? Is it easy to do or do you need some kind of automation to do it? If I look back on yesterdays trades is there an easy way for me to tell if they beat BSP?

TIA
Bsp is the price you had to bet to break-even, leaving commission aside. If the average price of your back bets is higher than the average bsp then you have beaten the bsp, but the frequency with which this happens must also be taken into account i.e. it happens at least half the time. You can beat bsp with a success rate of less than 50% but in this case the difference between your price and bsp must be higher.
Leeds1919
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:20 pm

Trader724 wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 12:29 pm
Leeds1919 wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 11:52 am
Inforaquid wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:43 am


Win rate of your strategy or the rate at which your selections win the event? I'm more concerned with the success of the strategy vs bsp, I can already see very large variance, perhaps that's to be expected given that the total variance is composed of three individual variances.
Stupid question but how can you chaps tell if you're beating BSP? Is it easy to do or do you need some kind of automation to do it? If I look back on yesterdays trades is there an easy way for me to tell if they beat BSP?

TIA
Bsp is the price you had to bet to break-even, leaving commission aside. If the average price of your back bets is higher than the average bsp then you have beaten the bsp, but the frequency with which this happens must also be taken into account i.e. it happens at least half the time. You can beat bsp with a success rate of less than 50% but in this case the difference between your price and bsp must be higher.
Thanks for the reply.

Do the same criteria apply if you hedge all your trades at post time like I do?
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Hedge bet is just another bet
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Inforaquid wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:43 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:40 pm

You mentioned trading 2000 selections, I trade about 1000 a day, 4.2 bets on each, and still I see the expected win rate vs BSP being up or down over 4-6 week periods.
Win rate of your strategy or the rate at which your selections win the event?
I didn't explain it very well. I mean the win rate vs BSP. Ie the pl from unhedged positions runs hot or cold vs the hedged position. BSP is 0ev but can be +ve or -ve for long runs.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Leeds1919 wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 12:37 pm

Do the same criteria apply if you hedge all your trades at post time like I do?
yes & no, This might not all be relevent but I'll try and put the topic to bed.

If the hedge doesn't always produce exactly the same amount across the card or you don't hedge, then you can measure your performance like this:

Add up all your pre-hedge bets for any given selection you'll arrive at two figures:

The amount you'll win/lose if the selection loses (IfLose)
The amount you'll win/lose if the selection wins (IfWin)
ie your net position

Then calculate what the SP 'clean' green up figure would have been eg .. IfLose+(IfWin-IfLose)/BSP
If that figure is +ve then you had a net position that was better than bsp, and if it is -ve then you had a net position that was worse than bsp.

I don't actually take much notice of my cash PL, my automation gets close to a level figure across the card but there might be a pound or two difference and quite often a bigger difference if there was a very late bet and I didn't adjust my hedge in time. So I always look at my 'clean' green figure because over time the two are very similar.

In this, the red line is the 'clean' PL and the blue line is the actual messy real world figure. Even though the blue has bad patches, the red line is the sanity figure that says you're doing ok. It also has the advantage of seeing if you've been winning more or less than you 'should' and to expect a better or worse patch soon. It's essential for betting strategies because you can be losing cash when the strategy is sound or winning cash when it isn't. If the red line, the amount you've beaten BSP by, is going up then hang in there.
Screenshot_9.jpg
Hope that helped. fyi that's a 6 month view so quite long good & bad spells that would have been headscratchers without the truer bsp benchmarked figure.
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