Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu May 06, 2021 4:55 am
Don't get hung up on what you see as the differences are between manual trading and 'value' betting. Looking for difference rather than commonality is a manual traders mindset.

When you've traded some more you'll see that all 'trading' is value betting under the skin either by design or accident. When you back at -3mins and lay at post time and make 50p or whatever, those bets do actually run, 'hedging' doesn't make them vanish it's just yet another bet. And anyone that's betted knows there's only one way placing bets can be done profitably. Think about how manual traders do it by happy accident and you'll see how how people do it by design.
i think correlation is peter`s best open secret which in esence factors in commonality and differecnces (+Ve OR -Ve).
Value can be statistically proven, its the reason why the market exist , depending on which side of the book , traded Mkt volume consists of buyers and sellers in equal amounts.

question is ? what is one`s position in the market?

i believe its always good to stear your boat towards a neautral point, just like the beginning of every football match, the ball is placed in the middle, then start from there building outwards.
you then deploy your tactics depending on what the market throws at you . its a good thing to have a well rehearsed gameplan ,otherwise your fate will be sealed by randomness, which is the first lesson you should master before venturing into the unknown.

Goat "randomness wont fool you it will only make you wiser"
Anbell
Posts: 2004
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu May 06, 2021 4:55 am
When you've traded some more you'll see that all 'trading' is value betting under the skin either by design or accident. When you back at -3mins and lay at post time and make 50p or whatever, those bets do actually run, 'hedging' doesn't make them vanish it's just yet another bet.
I mean, you're not wrong, technically.

But one person's 'hedging' is another person's 'closing a position.'

And 'closing a position' is ok, and it's ok to think about it in those terms.
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

goat68 wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 9:30 pm
Just been doing some "inplay" thinking... take this scenario:
- Typical flat 10 horse 1m race
- 2furlongs left horse1 is 6 lengths clear, price is 1.2
Is that "value" or not?...........
If you are doing this sort of thing you might want to consider just how far behind the live action things really might be - travelling at close to 0.10 furlongs per second in the closing stages with say a 2 second feed delay and a 2 second bet delay and presumably looking to see if the 'check engine' light is glowing on etc - I haven't done the calcs for horse lengths per second.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Anbell wrote:
Thu May 06, 2021 8:51 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu May 06, 2021 4:55 am
When you've traded some more you'll see that all 'trading' is value betting under the skin either by design or accident. When you back at -3mins and lay at post time and make 50p or whatever, those bets do actually run, 'hedging' doesn't make them vanish it's just yet another bet.
I mean, you're not wrong, technically.

But one person's 'hedging' is another person's 'closing a position.'

And 'closing a position' is ok, and it's ok to think about it in those terms.
Yep nothing wrong with hedging/closing/reducing. I was just saying that when you do it you're still left holding a portfolio of bets on the race and over the year betting needs value. Fortunately start time prices are correct so your hedge bet isn't a bad one. Same result, two ways to get there, moves (accidental value finding) or value (deliberate value finding).
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Jukebox wrote:
Thu May 06, 2021 11:00 am
goat68 wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 9:30 pm
Just been doing some "inplay" thinking... take this scenario:
- Typical flat 10 horse 1m race
- 2furlongs left horse1 is 6 lengths clear, price is 1.2
Is that "value" or not?...........
If you are doing this sort of thing you might want to consider just how far behind the live action things really might be - travelling at close to 0.10 furlongs per second in the closing stages with say a 2 second feed delay and a 2 second bet delay and presumably looking to see if the 'check engine' light is glowing on etc - I haven't done the calcs for horse lengths per second.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Think I need a new Laptop to run Guardian, my rather low spec one tripped out this evening, "over heat", the poor fan couldn't keep up! Fan sounds like a rocket most of the time!
Anbell
Posts: 2004
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

You can spin up a virtual machine quickly/cheaply/flexibly
Snaff
Posts: 172
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:26 pm

This topic seems more my place. I’m sure you have all found every pattern the is to see. A time scale works one day and not the next, Betfair’s mechanism bla bla bla. I’m sure 1000s come and 1000s go but a select few clean up. People watch video’s and look to copy that but with limited success. Why would people making 1000s want to advertise the edge? They wouldn’t. Why would they want more people trading then? Create more value? Now I’m sure plenty take on the trends looking for value and still come up short. Great one day and not the next. So many bright minds can not solve it so why do a certain couple? This drives me round the bend 😆
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Snaff wrote:
Sun May 09, 2021 8:09 am
This topic seems more my place. I’m sure you have all found every pattern the is to see. A time scale works one day and not the next, Betfair’s mechanism bla bla bla. I’m sure 1000s come and 1000s go but a select few clean up. People watch video’s and look to copy that but with limited success. Why would people making 1000s want to advertise the edge? They wouldn’t. Why would they want more people trading then? Create more value? Now I’m sure plenty take on the trends looking for value and still come up short. Great one day and not the next. So many bright minds can not solve it so why do a certain couple? This drives me round the bend 😆
Spot on, doesn't make any sense...
Snaff
Posts: 172
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:26 pm

Glad someone agrees. I try to think outside the box but the is only so much you can do.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Anbell wrote:
Sun May 09, 2021 3:55 am
You can spin up a virtual machine quickly/cheaply/flexibly
Yes, if I get a bot I want to run seriously, i will use a vps, cheaper than spending £400 on a new laptop..
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Sun May 09, 2021 10:28 am
Anbell wrote:
Sun May 09, 2021 3:55 am
You can spin up a virtual machine quickly/cheaply/flexibly
Yes, if I get a bot I want to run seriously, i will use a vps, cheaper than spending £400 on a new laptop..
If you're collecting data then a min spec server for about $20 a month is cheaper than the electric bill. And your laptop is usable again instead of being tied up for 21hrs a day.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Think I am going to give up trying to find a profitable bot for UK racing, it just seems far too efficient, "opportunities" of value seem very small, and get lost in hedging. I'm going to record more AUS race data, and see where it takes me.....
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Sums up my luck at the moment:
5 Lay bets odds of 6 to 8, 2 horses won
8 Back bets, 0 horses won
!
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Tue May 11, 2021 3:50 pm
Think I am going to give up trying to find a profitable bot for UK racing, it just seems far too efficient, "opportunities" of value seem very small, and get lost in hedging. I'm going to record more AUS race data, and see where it takes me.....
'Efficiency' is simply the fact that prices are generally 'correct' at anytime assuming you back/lay everything. Ie there's no magic moment when there's a bias vs bsp at scale. But prices move huge amounts throughout the day right up to the off which means that at any time and on any selection there's value to be had. It's 'just' a matter of comming up with yor own fair pricing algo to identify them.

UK racing is too liquid to just ignore, if you can't make value botting work (and that's tough to prove with so few races) then there's loads of niche areas where there's a dollar to be had. I mentioned price action around traditional odds values, behaviour after spikes, overbacking, MA crossovers etc etc, all worth thoroughly investigating and the more markets you watch the more potential niches you see.
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