Trading What I see !?

[Inforaquid]

My opinion without having enough data was that BSP sometimes represents value for lay and sometimes for back therefore it would be neutral on average.

I mean what I think is because the bsp combines the lay and back price into one sometimes it will be value for lay and - EV back and sometimes value back and - EV lay without a specific frequency bias.

[ShaunWhite]

I think it's better to do some kind of dutching to reduce the variance than to take SP.

Nooooooo. If you can't find value on one then you ain't gonna do it on 3 or 4, just hedge at BSP it perfectly OK.

(I know this is self indulgent 'boasting' but this conversation ranks as my most pleasurable.... Sat on a balcony in the sun, watching chicas, and having beer and a 100% legal high-grade spliff. Some countries really do treat adults like adults...... Sort of feels like I earn 250k instead of 25 it only a holiday ffs but its been a f*%#+ing long time coming ).

[Inforaquid]

Hedging costs you roughly 1/2 a tick each time, but you gain with lower variance and commission

your +EV bets get lower fill/match rate than your -EV bets? ie.your winners don't match up as good as the losers... often called "adverse selection".

Yes, that's what I mean. Why does hedging at the BSP lose half a tick each time?

Depends a bit how you hedge, but assuming you offer a price to hedge at and get taken you're on average taking a worse price than BSP by 1/2 a tick assuming BSP is on average in the middle of the gap.

I was referring exclusively to hedging at BSP.

[napshnap]

I think it's better to do some kind of dutching to reduce the variance than to take SP.

Nooooooo. If you can't find value on one then you ain't gonna do it on 3 or 4, just hedge at BSP it perfectly OK.

(I know this is self indulgent 'boasting' but this conversation ranks as my most pleasurable.... Sat on a balcony in the sun, watching chicas, and having beer and a 100% legal high-grade spliff. Some countries really do treat adults like adults...... Sort of feels like I earn 250k instead of 25 it only a holiday ffs but its been a f*%#+ing long time coming ).

No need to be shy, Shaun, you totally earned all of that, intellectual gains are the most honorable gains!
How are senoritas over there in your opinion, rate them starting from 5("Dios mío!!") to 0("Ay-ay-ay!"). ))

[Inforaquid]

I think it's better to do some kind of dutching to reduce the variance than to take SP.

Nooooooo. If you can't find value on one then you ain't gonna do it on 3 or 4, just hedge at BSP it perfectly OK.

I know what you mean but what I do is somewhat similar to what you and Goat do so I get value on almost every selection.

[goat68]

Yes, that's what I mean. Why does hedging at the BSP lose half a tick each time?

Depends a bit how you hedge, but assuming you offer a price to hedge at and get taken you're on average taking a worse price than BSP by 1/2 a tick assuming BSP is on average in the middle of the gap.

I was referring exclusively to hedging at BSP.

Yeah, that's what I do, of course you can only estimate what BSP will be, but on average it will work out...

[Inforaquid]

Depends a bit how you hedge, but assuming you offer a price to hedge at and get taken you're on average taking a worse price than BSP by 1/2 a tick assuming BSP is on average in the middle of the gap.

I was referring exclusively to hedging at BSP.

Yeah, that's what I do, of course you can only estimate what BSP will be, but on average it will work out...

I use the projected bsp.

[Inforaquid]

I think it's better to do some kind of dutching to reduce the variance than to take SP.

Nooooooo. If you can't find value on one then you ain't gonna do it on 3 or 4, just hedge at BSP it perfectly OK.

(I know this is self indulgent 'boasting' but this conversation ranks as my most pleasurable.... Sat on a balcony in the sun, watching chicas, and having beer and a 100% legal high-grade spliff. Some countries really do treat adults like adults...... Sort of feels like I earn 250k instead of 25 it only a holiday ffs but its been a f*%#+ing long time coming ).

Making money doing what you love or not having to do what you hate is the dream.

[napshnap]

I was referring exclusively to hedging at BSP.

Yeah, that's what I do, of course you can only estimate what BSP will be, but on average it will work out...

I use the projected bsp.

Check out (if you log your data somehow), maybe in your case LTP could be closer to SP (on average) than projected bsp (near price) and your hedging could me more precise. According to my 1 year data (all greyhounds markets) very few secs from official race start time: nearsp = 8.88, ltp = 9.25, sp = 9.24. So as you see LTP is very close to SP, but I dont know if a moment you measureit matters or not (maybe few minutes projected bsp is more close to sp).

I used to think that projected bsp is a super duper thing, but looks like it's not.

upd. But when I throw out everything with sp > 10 (leaving dogs whos sp is lower or equals 10) average nearsp becomes 5.43 and sp 5.48 ~1% difference. And if I throw out everything with sp > 5: nearsp becomes 3.72 and sp 3.7 ~0.5% difference. Interesting...

[Inforaquid]

Yeah, that's what I do, of course you can only estimate what BSP will be, but on average it will work out...

I use the projected bsp.

Check out (if you log your data somehow), maybe in your case LTP could be closer to SP (on average) than projected bsp (near price) and your hedging could me more precise. According to my 1 year data (all greyhounds markets) very few secs from official race start time: nearsp = 8.88, ltp = 9.25, sp = 9.24. So as you see LTP is very close to SP, but I dont know if a moment you measureit matters or not (maybe few minutes projected bsp is more close to sp).

I used to think that projected bsp is a super duper thing, but looks like it's not.

Yes, I keep data in a database. Ok I'll check it out, seems like a good idea to calculate the hedge stakes based on ltp.

[napshnap]

I use the projected bsp.

Check out (if you log your data somehow), maybe in your case LTP could be closer to SP (on average) than projected bsp (near price) and your hedging could me more precise. According to my 1 year data (all greyhounds markets) very few secs from official race start time: nearsp = 8.88, ltp = 9.25, sp = 9.24. So as you see LTP is very close to SP, but I dont know if a moment you measureit matters or not (maybe few minutes projected bsp is more close to sp).

I used to think that projected bsp is a super duper thing, but looks like it's not.

Yes, I keep data in a database. Ok I'll check it out, seems like a good idea to calculate the hedge stakes based on ltp.

Updated the post, check it out!

Damn it, everybody has fancy databases and only I sit with a handmade skinny logs like a lazy lame-o((

[ShaunWhite]

How are senoritas over there in your opinion, rate them starting from 5("Dios mío!!") to 0("Ay-ay-ay!"). ))

Mostly But tbh long dark hair, olive skin and skimpy clothes do a lot of the heavy lifting. But that's OK

[Inforaquid]

Check out (if you log your data somehow), maybe in your case LTP could be closer to SP (on average) than projected bsp (near price) and your hedging could me more precise. According to my 1 year data (all greyhounds markets) very few secs from official race start time: nearsp = 8.88, ltp = 9.25, sp = 9.24. So as you see LTP is very close to SP, but I dont know if a moment you measureit matters or not (maybe few minutes projected bsp is more close to sp).

I used to think that projected bsp is a super duper thing, but looks like it's not.

Yes, I keep data in a database. Ok I'll check it out, seems like a good idea to calculate the hedge stakes based on ltp.

Updated the post, check it out!

Damn it, everybody has fancy databases and only I sit with a handmade skinny logs like a lazy lame-o((

It's ok, not that it makes much difference. I have bigger problems at the moment. Like Goat said, adverse selection.

[Inforaquid]

How are senoritas over there in your opinion, rate them starting from 5("Dios mío!!") to 0("Ay-ay-ay!"). ))

Mostly But tbh long dark hair, olive skin and skimpy clothes do a lot of the heavy lifting. But that's OK

I think their asses do the most of the heavy lifting.

[goat68]

Anyway i'm off on holiday until end of month, here's hoping bots will have paid for the holiday by the time I get back