Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:42 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:34 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:31 pm


Why? Can short term volatility not be taken advantage of at a price that isn't value?
isn't short term volatility "noise", which by definition is random, hence in the long term will be net 0 ?
Not sure Goat, you tell me. Liam certainly knows what he's talking about & so does Peter, but....

https://youtu.be/i0tzkuqcwWQ

Tell me, is anyone seeking value in this trade?
Not in the sense of a numerical amount that is a higher/lower than another, maybe more in the value of the strategy to an individual that it can make a profit long-term and the right judgement is used in choosing the right market/selection.

This video is definitely a good one for any trader that enjoys manual trading. I've been guilty in the past of wanting to find the holy grail of full automation, (settled on semi-automation) but this approach can be adapted for swing trades and increase profits longer term, manually.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:42 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:34 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:31 pm


Why? Can short term volatility not be taken advantage of at a price that isn't value?
isn't short term volatility "noise", which by definition is random, hence in the long term will be net 0 ?
Not sure Goat, you tell me. Liam certainly knows what he's talking about & so does Peter, but....

https://youtu.be/i0tzkuqcwWQ

Tell me, is anyone seeking value in this trade?
not sure either, but guess there's more than one way to peel an orange!
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:11 am
jamesg46 wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:42 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:34 pm


isn't short term volatility "noise", which by definition is random, hence in the long term will be net 0 ?
Not sure Goat, you tell me. Liam certainly knows what he's talking about & so does Peter, but....

https://youtu.be/i0tzkuqcwWQ

Tell me, is anyone seeking value in this trade?
Not in the sense of a numerical amount that is a higher/lower than another, maybe more in the value of the strategy to an individual that it can make a profit long-term and the right judgement is used in choosing the right market/selection.

This video is definitely a good one for any trader that enjoys manual trading. I've been guilty in the past of wanting to find the holy grail of full automation, (settled on semi-automation) but this approach can be adapted for swing trades and increase profits longer term, manually.
Yeah, I think that's fair. There is definitely value in the effectiveness of using that strategy with short term volatility.

If you're going to use that strategy would you be taking a value price every time, be it you know you are or not?. What exactly is value? Is it price, is it strategy, is it opportunity, or a mix of them all.

Is every price with matched volume value? From the beginning to the end of a markets time, someone somewhere is taking a price they feel is either a value entry or exit based on any number of emotions or action taking place. For anyone buying there has to be someone selling, are they both taking value?.

Is a value price a price within any given strategy that any one individual is using at any one time. What the hell is value :D
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Value.
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dm1900
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:02 pm

In order to be profitable, one must be taking value. If you are trading volatility it doesn't matter, your strike rate still needs to be better than the implied probabilities in the markets. To say you do not need to do "value taking" in order to be profitable is an oxymoron - profitability is an outcome of taking bets at value.

Sure - volatility traders may not be assessing value with the same methodology a low-frequency trader might. But the end of the day, when you load your PNL page, you are only going to get +ve pnl if your strike rate is better than the implied strike rate from pricing. And thus you are taking at value.

Successful order flow trading/volatility trading is still value betting by proxy. Any profitably betting operation is. Let's stop this bs "you don't need to take value if you are "trading""

So once again - it is NOT possible to be profitable UNLESS you take/place value bets.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:49 am
Value.
:D


I sometimes create ratings on a race by using a base rating and then add/minus depending on other variables in the race. Each runner is rated on its merits, a total rating achieved and then odds calculated taking into account the whole field. When the new odds are compared with the live market, value (IMO) can be measured.

If I were straight betting/laying this would give me a starting point for how I perceive value, however, the "value" odds could also be used to indicate a B2L or L2B opportunity....unless the market has other ideas....

I often find an overbet selection serves well for a L2B option, if the race variables (ratings based) support it.

Or I can always peel an orange...
marko236
Posts: 737
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:54 am

dm1900 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:44 am
In order to be profitable, one must be taking value. If you are trading volatility it doesn't matter, your strike rate still needs to be better than the implied probabilities in the markets. To say you do not need to do "value taking" in order to be profitable is an oxymoron - profitability is an outcome of taking bets at value.

Sure - volatility traders may not be assessing value with the same methodology a low-frequency trader might. But the end of the day, when you load your PNL page, you are only going to get +ve pnl if your strike rate is better than the implied strike rate from pricing. And thus you are taking at value.

Successful order flow trading/volatility trading is still value betting by proxy. Any profitably betting operation is. Let's stop this bs "you don't need to take value if you are "trading""

So once again - it is NOT possible to be profitable UNLESS you take/place value bets.
If a horse is getting heavily back in it may indicate that it's a value back bet, but there's almost always an opportunity to lay and have a winning trade. If your betting long term against value you will lose money, Trading is different to betting.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

marko236 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 12:06 pm
dm1900 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:44 am
In order to be profitable, one must be taking value. If you are trading volatility it doesn't matter, your strike rate still needs to be better than the implied probabilities in the markets. To say you do not need to do "value taking" in order to be profitable is an oxymoron - profitability is an outcome of taking bets at value.

Sure - volatility traders may not be assessing value with the same methodology a low-frequency trader might. But the end of the day, when you load your PNL page, you are only going to get +ve pnl if your strike rate is better than the implied strike rate from pricing. And thus you are taking at value.

Successful order flow trading/volatility trading is still value betting by proxy. Any profitably betting operation is. Let's stop this bs "you don't need to take value if you are "trading""

So once again - it is NOT possible to be profitable UNLESS you take/place value bets.
If a horse is getting heavily back in it may indicate that it's a value back bet, but there's almost always an opportunity to lay and have a winning trade. If your betting long term against value you will lose money, Trading is different to betting.
+1
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Trader724
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

There is betting value and trading value. If you only bet on the winner of the event, the only way to be long time profitable is to bet at betting value.
When you're trading you will be profitable if you predict the direction of the price for a reward greater than the risk whether it is the size of profits or their frequency. Things are pretty simple.
You can get trading value whether the price is betting value or not but it seems like not everyone knows that.
dm1900
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:02 pm

marko236 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 12:06 pm
Trading is different to betting.
I give up, this is nonsense (with respect to placing orders at value)
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

I prefer to cut my orange peel off with a sharp knife, cuts the pithe off and I don't get my fingers all orange stained and messy. IT'S THE ONLY WAY, DON'T TELL ME OTHERWISE!
marko236
Posts: 737
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:54 am

goat68 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:08 pm
I prefer to cut my orange peel off with a sharp knife, cuts the pithe off and I don't get my fingers all orange stained and messy. IT'S THE ONLY WAY, DON'T TELL ME OTHERWISE!
I remember when i was a kid i would peel an Orange with my teeth :lol:
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

marko236 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:17 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:08 pm
I prefer to cut my orange peel off with a sharp knife, cuts the pithe off and I don't get my fingers all orange stained and messy. IT'S THE ONLY WAY, DON'T TELL ME OTHERWISE!
I remember when i was a kid i would peel an Orange with my teeth :lol:
Peeling a satsuma is always satisfying, comes off in one go, and then consume whole. How do like them apples?
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

The things that come to mind to me at the moment:
- You can't be successful at sport trading part-time, doing it in your spare time
- You need years of experience to understand the dynamics of markets to then become profitable
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

goat68 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:00 am
The things that come to mind to me at the moment:
- You can't be successful at sport trading part-time, doing it in your spare time
- You need years of experience to understand the dynamics of markets to then become profitable
You also need to know thyself.

Probably telling you how to suck lemons, but it's often overlooked.

This would cover not only how to handle/embrace a loss/losing run, but also how to enjoy the process/journey along the way and celebrate the successes.

The most important lesson I learned was; "Don't sweat the small stuff." Essentially, it meant for me, was to look at the bigger picture and not chop and change too many things along the way. Also, I never stop learning new stuff to assist the process and keep myself up todate.

Also, not to compare myself and my results against others apparent success, be my own person.
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