Trading What I see !?

The sport of kings.
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Trader Pat
Posts: 1797
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

When looking back at your trades at the end of the day you've got to ask yourself how many of them you were in control of.

When you're in control of a trade it doesn't guarantee you'll make a profit but you at least know why you did what you did and the rationale behind your decisions. The ones you're not in control of are the ones that eat into your bank and result in big losses.

It only takes one trade that you're not in control of to turn a profitable day into a losing day.
Bubace
Posts: 54
Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:50 pm

alexmr2 wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:47 pm
Bubace wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 5:38 pm
Why am i actually getting worse?

ive bee doing this 6 months now, and in no way am i expecting to be profitable or have it nailed after this long, i was hoping to see some improvement

but the opposite seems to be true, the more im trying to learn, the more notes and rewatching my trades back i do, the more understanding i think i have about trading in general, the worse i get

ironically my best ever week still is my first ever week where id never even seen a ladder in my life before, {thought id cracked the easy life :D :D :D }
I feel the same after 2.5 years of trading 7 days most weeks. This week another £250 down to add to the -£10k total
That doesn't fill me with confidence! Im not using massive stakes, im only down about £150 in 6 months
goat68
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

alexmr2 wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:47 pm
Bubace wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 5:38 pm
Why am i actually getting worse?

ive bee doing this 6 months now, and in no way am i expecting to be profitable or have it nailed after this long, i was hoping to see some improvement

but the opposite seems to be true, the more im trying to learn, the more notes and rewatching my trades back i do, the more understanding i think i have about trading in general, the worse i get

ironically my best ever week still is my first ever week where id never even seen a ladder in my life before, {thought id cracked the easy life :D :D :D }
I feel the same after 2.5 years of trading 7 days most weeks. This week another £250 down to add to the -£10k total
I think I've been lucky then, I totted up my overall losses this year and I'm only -£150, however that is only because of two lucky leaving inplay gambles that netted about £300...
I did some more research over the weekend and I really think I am personally not suited to manual trading, it seems you've got to pick what suits yourself, and for me since I am a programmer, that's Automation..
Hence my questions about PC from pure Automation. So I am hoping 6months of manual experience is going to help me, we shall see...

Good luck for 2021 chaps
User avatar
alexmr2
Posts: 256
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

Bubace wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:10 pm
alexmr2 wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:47 pm
Bubace wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 5:38 pm
Why am i actually getting worse?

ive bee doing this 6 months now, and in no way am i expecting to be profitable or have it nailed after this long, i was hoping to see some improvement

but the opposite seems to be true, the more im trying to learn, the more notes and rewatching my trades back i do, the more understanding i think i have about trading in general, the worse i get

ironically my best ever week still is my first ever week where id never even seen a ladder in my life before, {thought id cracked the easy life :D :D :D }
I feel the same after 2.5 years of trading 7 days most weeks. This week another £250 down to add to the -£10k total
That doesn't fill me with confidence! Im not using massive stakes, im only down about £150 in 6 months
I was around the same 6 months in because I used practice mode for the first few months, then I went to live with £100 bank trading every day I would usually make some progress then have a big drawdown. About 15k markets experience now I moved up to £200 bank so I could have good progress like 2 weeks in profit but as soon as I scale up then I start having big losing days after losing days
Trader724
Posts: 174
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

alexmr2 wrote:
Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:48 pm
Bubace wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:10 pm
alexmr2 wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:47 pm


I feel the same after 2.5 years of trading 7 days most weeks. This week another £250 down to add to the -£10k total
That doesn't fill me with confidence! Im not using massive stakes, im only down about £150 in 6 months
I was around the same 6 months in because I used practice mode for the first few months, then I went to live with £100 bank trading every day I would usually make some progress then have a big drawdown. About 15k markets experience now I moved up to £200 bank so I could have good progress like 2 weeks in profit but as soon as I scale up then I start having big losing days after losing days
Not every strategy is scalable. If you have a tiny edge it will go off pretty quickly once you scale it up due to partial matched bets.
mordenboy
Posts: 13
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:27 am

Hi Goat

I've just finished reading this thread (took a while :lol: ) and there's some fantastic information being offered. I'm nearing the end of my 1st year of trading horses pre-race, so i'm a million miles from being able to offer advice from an expert's perspective, in fact I'm still asking for advice myself,but as similar experiences are still fresh in my mind, perhaps I can offer some thoughts that will be helpful.

I think your openness, not to mention your persistence is admirable. I do however think you're making life hard for yourself with the order in which you are doing things. From what I can see, you're in the markets, looking for an an approach or "edge" that will work, and talking about a lack of confidence in approaching the markets. I read this and think, how can you possibly have confidence without having identified a profitable approach before applying it? I would recommend, in practice mode or minimum stakes, identifying a strategy with strict parameters (at least to start with) and test it. Trade 50 races and see where you are. Was it profitable? Raise your stakes and trade another 50 races, was it profitable again? If not, what variables could you change? Trade another 50 races. For me at least, this is the only way I could imagine markets being approached with any confidence.

Secondly, you seem to be looking for a graph, an indicator on the ladder, or some advice that will tell you how the market you're about to trade will behave. Ready for the most important bit? There isn't one. There is not one trader in the world that knows if the trade he is about to enter will be successful. I've never met Peter, but i'm confident in saying if, even he waited for a trade he knew would be successful, he would never enter another trade. All you can do is take the approach you know to be successful over a series of trades and apply it with diligent management.

I hope that steers you into a more methodical approach, that also lifts the pressure you're putting on yourself. Think of it like this, if you and I are betting at evens on a coin toss, but you know you have a dodgy coin that gives you an edge over me. If I win the 1st 3 flips, will you get upset and want to stop flipping?

Like I said, I'm not at the level of some of the fantastic contributors on here, but I found it difficult to read about you changing your approach every few days, trying football or automation, without applying an order to give yourself a chance of success.

Anyway, apologies for the essay,

Good luck mate
goat68
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

mordenboy wrote:
Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:44 pm
Hi Goat

I've just finished reading this thread (took a while :lol: ) and there's some fantastic information being offered. I'm nearing the end of my 1st year of trading horses pre-race, so i'm a million miles from being able to offer advice from an expert's perspective, in fact I'm still asking for advice myself,but as similar experiences are still fresh in my mind, perhaps I can offer some thoughts that will be helpful.

I think your openness, not to mention your persistence is admirable. I do however think you're making life hard for yourself with the order in which you are doing things. From what I can see, you're in the markets, looking for an an approach or "edge" that will work, and talking about a lack of confidence in approaching the markets. I read this and think, how can you possibly have confidence without having identified a profitable approach before applying it? I would recommend, in practice mode or minimum stakes, identifying a strategy with strict parameters (at least to start with) and test it. Trade 50 races and see where you are. Was it profitable? Raise your stakes and trade another 50 races, was it profitable again? If not, what variables could you change? Trade another 50 races. For me at least, this is the only way I could imagine markets being approached with any confidence.

Secondly, you seem to be looking for a graph, an indicator on the ladder, or some advice that will tell you how the market you're about to trade will behave. Ready for the most important bit? There isn't one. There is not one trader in the world that knows if the trade he is about to enter will be successful. I've never met Peter, but i'm confident in saying if, even he waited for a trade he knew would be successful, he would never enter another trade. All you can do is take the approach you know to be successful over a series of trades and apply it with diligent management.

I hope that steers you into a more methodical approach, that also lifts the pressure you're putting on yourself. Think of it like this, if you and I are betting at evens on a coin toss, but you know you have a dodgy coin that gives you an edge over me. If I win the 1st 3 flips, will you get upset and want to stop flipping?

Like I said, I'm not at the level of some of the fantastic contributors on here, but I found it difficult to read about you changing your approach every few days, trying football or automation, without applying an order to give yourself a chance of success.

Anyway, apologies for the essay,

Good luck mate
Hi, thanks for the response. I'm very impressed you read this whole thread, amazing!
I am slowly coming to the approach you mention, ie.a methodical one to find a method that has an advantage over time. I understand you can't predict exactly, it's just probability being on your side. I am going to approach this via Automation as that fits my psychology as a programmer, and also relieves me from bad manual habits.

Thanks again and keep an eye out for my Automation updates in January...!

Cheers
Goat
User avatar
alexmr2
Posts: 256
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:01 pm
When looking back at your trades at the end of the day you've got to ask yourself how many of them you were in control of.

When you're in control of a trade it doesn't guarantee you'll make a profit but you at least know why you did what you did and the rationale behind your decisions. The ones you're not in control of are the ones that eat into your bank and result in big losses.

It only takes one trade that you're not in control of to turn a profitable day into a losing day.
Good advice, I find that after some consistent success scaling up too fast combined with growing overconfidence and forgetting my strike rate isn't 100% is my recipe for disaster. Leading to chasing losses and overstaking = big drawdowns. Then need to take a step back to ground level with the defensive slow and steady approach and hopefully eventually break out of that cycle
goat68
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Spent some of today watching markets, didn't do a single trade, as there was nothing I could anticipate... I just don't have knowledge of patterns that have an advantage, so I am hoping I can collect some data from Automation that can help me find an edge....
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Euler
Posts: 20441
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
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This is a really quiet period now. The week in between Christmas is busy.
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