Trading What I see !?

[kamil2402]

Markets seems a battle at the moment, just a gentle grind into -ve territory, I'm hoping it's the time of year, how is everyone else doing?

Did pretty well yesterday 70% strike rate, all manual pre race. Traded 13 markets in total. They reminded me very much of greyhound markets.

[vhdgkl]

now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge

[goat68]

now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge

Hi, thanks for this. So you saw a load of money queued at 5.2 not being taken but the price was lower and because other traders also see that money waiting they all pushed the price down to 4? Seems a odd not sure i understand?

[vhdgkl]

now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge

Hi, thanks for this. So you saw a load of money queued at 5.2 not being taken but the price was lower and because other traders also see that money waiting they all pushed the price down to 4? Seems a odd not sure i understand?

jes..last minute before the off...
not in uk.
in south african horse racing..in usa horse racing..in australia harness..where there is a bit of money,but not too much to attract traders---and,in horse racing markets, as themoney comes in at the last, because of the characterisics of horse markets.
large bets last minute before the off?trade,trade that money
1 out of 10 times?...min,30pounds.

[goat68]

now

meydan 16.25

very large back bet availableon [email protected]
price go down @4

(last minute before the off!this detail is fundamental..because it guarantees that the guy does not want to manipulate anything but only wants to place his bet..if it waits the last minute,it's because it needs liquidity that isn t there....he cant find money to accept it..he will accept a much lower price)


this is an example of edge

Hi, thanks for this. So you saw a load of money queued at 5.2 not being taken but the price was lower and because other traders also see that money waiting they all pushed the price down to 4? Seems a odd not sure i understand?

jes..last minute before the off...
not in uk.
in south african horse racing..in usa horse racing..in australia harness..where there is a bit of money,but not too much to attract traders---and,in horse racing markets, as themoney comes in at the last, because of the characterisics of horse markets.
large bets last minute before the off?trade,trade that money
1 out of 10 times?...min,30pounds.

Its interesting you mention not too much money to attract traders, i think i see what you mean, the UK racing has too much volume and traders so the market just gets efficient with little movement and thus few opportunities...

[goat68]

Just watched Kemp 18:50 and there were some decent moves, but my bot picked none of them!! Interesting watch Elmjor, and it came in quite a bit, but I could see no "indicator" it would do that, so not surprising bot didn't either.
I am thinking maybe entering at random is better, as if you create a bot based on indicators they are lagging and as far as I can see no indicator. I'm guessing with so many 1000s of traders/bots, anything obvious is going to be -ev.

[goat68]

Bot traded 8 markets today with a 100% losses......

[goat68]

My Bots PnL so far this month, an obvious trend! :

PnLChart.jpg

[goat68]

Going to invert my current bot for the next week, see what happens

[Trader Pat]

My Bots PnL so far this month, an obvious trend! :
PnLChart.jpg

Time alone isn't a good metric, you have to break it down into race types and see if there's a pattern.

Also sample size is very important, you'd probably need at least 1,000 to be able to make any kind of judgement

[Trader724]

Going to invert my current bot for the next week, see what happens

Same thing will happen.

[goat68]

Going to invert my current bot for the next week, see what happens

Same thing will happen.

Go on then, explain why?

[CallumPerry]

You may still get a slowly slipping equity curve because of commission eating away at your balance, depends how many trades you've done. Like Trader Pat suggested, break it down into different race types. Perhaps invert it for a week then the week after try this:

Run it normally on the types of markets that it worked on originally over this two week sample AND run it inverted on the type of markets that proves to be successful next week. If you differentiate it slightly, a small alteration could nudge it profitable. I still think you need a large sample though before you can make any firm decisions; try not to tweak things too much.

Did the bot get altered at all once you hit the -5 on the y axis? Things seem to have got a bit more choppier, just an observation.

[goat68]

You may still get a slowly slipping equity curve because of commission eating away at your balance, depends how many trades you've done. Like Trader Pat suggested, break it down into different race types. Perhaps invert it for a week then the week after try this:

Run it normally on the types of markets that it worked on originally over this two week sample AND run it inverted on the type of markets that proves to be successful next week. If you differentiate it slightly, a small alteration could nudge it profitable. I still think you need a large sample though before you can make any firm decisions; try not to tweak things too much.

Did the bot get altered at all once you hit the -5 on the y axis? Things seem to have got a bit more choppier, just an observation.

Thanks for the feedback Callum, yes it did get changed i had 2 bots and I cut out 1 that seemed not right, i also rweaked the other to give it more room as it's stop out method was too tight, hence why got more choppy...
265 markets so far, about 400 trades.
I like what you suggest cheers

[goat68]

Going to invert my current bot for the next week, see what happens

Same thing will happen.

So if you take a profitable bot and invert it, is it still profitable?