2 Years and still struggling

The sport of kings.
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alexmr2
Posts: 766
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

Going to post my trading journey here in the hope it helps me or anyone else reading. When I exhausted my matched betting accounts with bookmakers I started learning and practising pre-off racing and have been fascinated with it for the last 2 years. I had a decent amount of savings so after finishing my last job I decided to do this full-time to give it the best shot I could.

For the last 2 years I have been trading 7 days a week most weeks, I have had a lot of help from a profitable trader with calls and videos, have watched many of Betangel's videos 10-20 times every now and then, have read books such as Trading in the Zone, recorded my trading and sat up at night rewatching my trades and tracking my P&L, studied psychology and financial markets but I am still struggling to become profitable at the end of the week.

I estimate that I have traded somewhere between 10,000-12,000 races and in that time have had many false starts where I thought I could do it. I often notice new things and these do help but my results just aren't showing, some days I feel like none of it makes sense and others I feel like I'm doing it, taking those small losses and bigger profits with safely managed positions and no over-exposure. I still find it difficult to identify and avoid the races I lose on even with the help of analysing my P&Ls, for example there was one yesterday where the first two runners flew up and down around the 3.0 crossover in a wide range and it totally destroyed me:
bfc.png
Nowaday I will usually make 10-20% of my bank some days and then lose 20-50% of it on others. Some days like today it seems that every trade goes against me and Jolly Green's old posts which I have read several times describes my trading well. I am usually a patient person who understands maths and would never gamble with the odds not in my favour, yet I find it hard to control my emotions which let my trading down with impulsive clicking and overstaking after a string of losses. Bank management is one of the pillars of trading I need to work on.

I keep telling myself that with enough quality practice and reviewing I should make it eventually but it's disheartening to have put a good 2000+ hours into this and feel like even breakeven is a lifetime away. I enjoy it and feel like this is what I want to do especially in the current job climate, so I won't give up yet and will continue to try and manage my losses to avoid any significant financial damage. I suppose the place to start is to look for a setup I'm good at and try and keep patient and discliplined
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

I sympathize with you, it's the old break-even grind of death. If you're winning 10-20% of your bank in a day and losing 20-50% on other days, it sounds like you're over-staking. For me, 1% loss on a market is heavy, 3-5% in a day is disastrous, although it has happened.
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alexmr2
Posts: 766
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:36 pm
I sympathize with you, it's the old break-even grind of death. If you're winning 10-20% of your bank in a day and losing 20-50% on other days, it sounds like you're over-staking. For me, 1% loss on a market is heavy, 3-5% in a day is disastrous, although it has happened.
I agree thanks for pointing this out to remind me, overstaking has always been the killer for me. I think once I see some success the overconfidence kicks in and causes me to push too hard, meaning I am trying to get 5-10% return per race which is just ridiculous, there is no way you can double your bank at the end of every day by trading properly. Then when it doesn't work the other classic issues like impulsive clicking and overtrading start to creep in and make things worse. A good trade may ocassionally come along where I get a great risk:reward ratio but then trying to replicate this and use that as a target for every race is just silly

If I am using a £300 bank I should be risking no more than £3 per trade I believe, certainly not the £10-20 I have been the last couple of days
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Think Dewick is making a good point, your daily swings on your bank would kill me off, especially if I lost 50% in one day. This is my last 100 trades, i've managed 6% and the % returned on the stake of individual trades is tiny, a few of those bigger losses you see on the chart and I'd be screwed, I'm in a constant battle (with myself) to avoid them. The tiny % gained is always in the back of my mind & that probably doesn't help because instead of looking for opportunity I'm trying to avoid losses.

Good luck with your grind, just wanted to show that it's no different for some of us on here.
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darchas
Posts: 301
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:55 pm

alexmr2 wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:59 pm
For the last 2 years I have been trading 7 days a week most weeks, I have had a lot of help from a profitable trader with calls and videos, have watched many of Betangel's videos 10-20 times every now and then, have read books such as Trading in the Zone, recorded my trading and sat up at night rewatching my trades and tracking my P&L, studied psychology and financial markets but I am still struggling to become profitable at the end of the week.
The thing is all the above is going to be useless if you're putting 50% of your bank at risk in one day. Money management is an absolute basic and should be the foundation to everything you do. If you're not paying attention to this then everything you do is on shaky ground and liable to collapse at any minute. Could it even be that you'd find you were profitable, no matter how small, if you managed your bank and staking correctly?

I know it can be hard with small stakes but see it as pure practice, doesn't matter if it's pennies, if you can make pennies over a decent enough period of time then you can make pounds too.

Have you thought about whether it's even possible to profit in this market with the size of bank you have, technology available, the time period you're trying to trade etc? After 12,000 trades it seems a reasonable question. What is it that makes you so wedded to this small part of the exchange after so many hours spent not making money? I'm not being facetious, or expecting an answer, just more to prompt some thought.
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jimibt
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Location: Narnia

darchas wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:13 pm
alexmr2 wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:59 pm
For the last 2 years I have been trading 7 days a week most weeks, I have had a lot of help from a profitable trader with calls and videos, have watched many of Betangel's videos 10-20 times every now and then, have read books such as Trading in the Zone, recorded my trading and sat up at night rewatching my trades and tracking my P&L, studied psychology and financial markets but I am still struggling to become profitable at the end of the week.
The thing is all the above is going to be useless if you're putting 50% of your bank at risk in one day. Money management is an absolute basic and should be the foundation to everything you do. If you're not paying attention to this then everything you do is on shaky ground and liable to collapse at any minute. Could it even be that you'd find you were profitable, no matter how small, if you managed your bank and staking correctly?

I know it can be hard with small stakes but see it as pure practice, doesn't matter if it's pennies, if you can make pennies over a decent enough period of time then you can make pounds too.

Have you thought about whether it's even possible to profit in this market with the size of bank you have, technology available, the time period you're trying to trade etc? After 12,000 trades it seems a reasonable question. What is it that makes you so wedded to this small part of the exchange after so many hours spent not making money? I'm not being facetious, or expecting an answer, just more to prompt some thought.

RISKING 50% of your bank is very different from risking 50% of your stake. I'm certain there are many here that *risk* > 50% of their bank but have a money management scheme that mitigates proportionate losses... but i do agree that unless you have moeny management skills, then even risking 10% of your bank is just 9 steps away from shutdown. this skill (MM) should be instilled above all else as it then allows you to exploit opportunities with a far higher degree of (exit) confidence, thus allowing you to stake miscellaneously as required.
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darchas
Posts: 301
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:55 pm

jimibt wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:39 pm
RISKING 50% of your bank is very different from risking 50% of your stake. I'm certain there are many here that *risk* > 50% of their bank but have a money management scheme that mitigates proportionate losses... but i do agree that unless you have moeny management skills, then even risking 10% of your bank is just 9 steps away from shutdown. this skill (MM) should be instilled above all else as it then allows you to exploit opportunities with a far higher degree of (exit) confidence, thus allowing you to stake miscellaneously as required.
Yes, thanks Jimibit, absolutely right, put far better than I could!
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Derek27
Posts: 23471
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

When I started off with a £100 bank, I really treated it and conditioned myself to believe that it's £10K, and every penny's a pound. You need to because it's all too easy to be stuck with a £20 liability at the off and think, fuck it - it's only £20, I'll let it run! Then you find yourself losing money that hopefully, you wouldn't lose if you were placing serious bets and consequently lose sight of what you might achieve.
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

alexmr2 wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:59 pm
I have traded somewhere between 10,000-12,000 races
Any Aussie, USA or greyhounds racing stuff etc? Those are perfect for learning this market, smaller stakes don't feel out of place and it's far easier to read what's going on.
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:22 pm
Think Dewick is making a good point
Is it official then? He shall be henceforth known as Dewick?
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Kai wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:42 pm
alexmr2 wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:59 pm
I have traded somewhere between 10,000-12,000 races
Any Aussie, USA or greyhounds racing stuff etc? Those are perfect for learning this market, smaller stakes don't feel out of place and it's far easier to read what's going on.
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:22 pm
Think Dewick is making a good point
Is it official then? He shall be henceforth known as Dewick?
I was testing the water, been waiting for an opportunity. It did make me chuckle when I read that thread, so in my mind be it I type it or not, from now on its Dewick :lol:
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:45 pm
Kai wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:42 pm
alexmr2 wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:59 pm
I have traded somewhere between 10,000-12,000 races
Any Aussie, USA or greyhounds racing stuff etc? Those are perfect for learning this market, smaller stakes don't feel out of place and it's far easier to read what's going on.
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:22 pm
Think Dewick is making a good point
Is it official then? He shall be henceforth known as Dewick?
I was testing the water, been waiting for an opportunity. It did make me chuckle when I read that thread, so in my mind be it I type it or not, from now on its Dewick :lol:
OK it's settled then. I think that's how the French pronounce his name anyway.
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Derek27
Posts: 23471
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

It's quite catchy. Somebody once asked me what's the weason for something or the other and it stuck in my mind to the point where I was saying it myself!
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darchas
Posts: 301
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:55 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:51 pm
It's quite catchy. Somebody once asked me what's the weason for something or the other and it stuck in my mind to the point where I was saying it myself!
:D

Reminds me of this

https://youtu.be/93VbNiVpAXw

'how can I change the lyrics, the bloody song's called Cwying!' :lol:
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

darchas wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:15 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:51 pm
It's quite catchy. Somebody once asked me what's the weason for something or the other and it stuck in my mind to the point where I was saying it myself!
:D

Reminds me of this

https://youtu.be/93VbNiVpAXw

'how can I change the lyrics, the bloody song's called Cwying!' :lol:
:lol:
georget1907
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:09 pm

alexmr2 wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:59 pm
Going to post my trading journey here in the hope it helps me or anyone else reading. When I exhausted my matched betting accounts with bookmakers I started learning and practising pre-off racing and have been fascinated with it for the last 2 years. I had a decent amount of savings so after finishing my last job I decided to do this full-time to give it the best shot I could.

For the last 2 years I have been trading 7 days a week most weeks, I have had a lot of help from a profitable trader with calls and videos, have watched many of Betangel's videos 10-20 times every now and then, have read books such as Trading in the Zone, recorded my trading and sat up at night rewatching my trades and tracking my P&L, studied psychology and financial markets but I am still struggling to become profitable at the end of the week.

I estimate that I have traded somewhere between 10,000-12,000 races and in that time have had many false starts where I thought I could do it. I often notice new things and these do help but my results just aren't showing, some days I feel like none of it makes sense and others I feel like I'm doing it, taking those small losses and bigger profits with safely managed positions and no over-exposure. I still find it difficult to identify and avoid the races I lose on even with the help of analysing my P&Ls, for example there was one yesterday where the first two runners flew up and down around the 3.0 crossover in a wide range and it totally destroyed me:

bfc.png

Nowaday I will usually make 10-20% of my bank some days and then lose 20-50% of it on others. Some days like today it seems that every trade goes against me and Jolly Green's old posts which I have read several times describes my trading well. I am usually a patient person who understands maths and would never gamble with the odds not in my favour, yet I find it hard to control my emotions which let my trading down with impulsive clicking and overstaking after a string of losses. Bank management is one of the pillars of trading I need to work on.

I keep telling myself that with enough quality practice and reviewing I should make it eventually but it's disheartening to have put a good 2000+ hours into this and feel like even breakeven is a lifetime away. I enjoy it and feel like this is what I want to do especially in the current job climate, so I won't give up yet and will continue to try and manage my losses to avoid any significant financial damage. I suppose the place to start is to look for a setup I'm good at and try and keep patient and discliplined

i've been trying on and off for 5 years but still not profitable :o :D I dont give it my full attention anymore, but go through binges over a week or so and feel like i am learning more then it suddenly seems to go out the window again.

I think being emotionally detached from the market is the number one thing ive learned is most important, being present and completely unconcerned about profits and totally focused on understanding the particular race you are doing at that moment, out of enjoyment of understsanding it and not worried about the profits. I think, and i may be wrong, that this is the kind of state of mind that successful traders trade with.

I dont know why im still trying after 5 years, its quite addicitve and i only use very small stakes now or practice mode. Maybe one day it will all click for me.

Good luck to yourself!
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