2 Years and still struggling

[Anbell]

Going to post my trading journey here in the hope it helps me or anyone else reading. When I exhausted my matched betting accounts with bookmakers I started learning and practising pre-off racing and have been fascinated with it for the last 2 years. I had a decent amount of savings so after finishing my last job I decided to do this full-time to give it the best shot I could.

For the last 2 years I have been trading 7 days a week most weeks, I have had a lot of help from a profitable trader with calls and videos, have watched many of Betangel's videos 10-20 times every now and then, have read books such as Trading in the Zone, recorded my trading and sat up at night rewatching my trades and tracking my P&L, studied psychology and financial markets but I am still struggling to become profitable at the end of the week.

I estimate that I have traded somewhere between 10,000-12,000 races and in that time have had many false starts where I thought I could do it. I often notice new things and these do help but my results just aren't showing, some days I feel like none of it makes sense and others I feel like I'm doing it, taking those small losses and bigger profits with safely managed positions and no over-exposure. I still find it difficult to identify and avoid the races I lose on even with the help of analysing my P&Ls, for example there was one yesterday where the first two runners flew up and down around the 3.0 crossover in a wide range and it totally destroyed me:

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Nowaday I will usually make 10-20% of my bank some days and then lose 20-50% of it on others. Some days like today it seems that every trade goes against me and Jolly Green's old posts which I have read several times describes my trading well. I am usually a patient person who understands maths and would never gamble with the odds not in my favour, yet I find it hard to control my emotions which let my trading down with impulsive clicking and overstaking after a string of losses. Bank management is one of the pillars of trading I need to work on.

I keep telling myself that with enough quality practice and reviewing I should make it eventually but it's disheartening to have put a good 2000+ hours into this and feel like even breakeven is a lifetime away. I enjoy it and feel like this is what I want to do especially in the current job climate, so I won't give up yet and will continue to try and manage my losses to avoid any significant financial damage. I suppose the place to start is to look for a setup I'm good at and try and keep patient and discliplined

I agree with everyone else that you appear to be making serious staking mistakes. That's the first place to look to improve. You might actually be a good trader apart from the money management.

It's also possible that trading doesnt suit you.

We don't talk about it much here but it's also possible to have an edge having prop bets rather than trading. Maybe that's something to look at.

[wearthefoxhat]

Going to post my trading journey here in the hope it helps me or anyone else reading. When I exhausted my matched betting accounts with bookmakers I started learning and practising pre-off racing and have been fascinated with it for the last 2 years. I had a decent amount of savings so after finishing my last job I decided to do this full-time to give it the best shot I could.

For the last 2 years I have been trading 7 days a week most weeks, I have had a lot of help from a profitable trader with calls and videos, have watched many of Betangel's videos 10-20 times every now and then, have read books such as Trading in the Zone, recorded my trading and sat up at night rewatching my trades and tracking my P&L, studied psychology and financial markets but I am still struggling to become profitable at the end of the week.

I estimate that I have traded somewhere between 10,000-12,000 races and in that time have had many false starts where I thought I could do it. I often notice new things and these do help but my results just aren't showing, some days I feel like none of it makes sense and others I feel like I'm doing it, taking those small losses and bigger profits with safely managed positions and no over-exposure. I still find it difficult to identify and avoid the races I lose on even with the help of analysing my P&Ls, for example there was one yesterday where the first two runners flew up and down around the 3.0 crossover in a wide range and it totally destroyed me:

bfc.png

Nowaday I will usually make 10-20% of my bank some days and then lose 20-50% of it on others. Some days like today it seems that every trade goes against me and Jolly Green's old posts which I have read several times describes my trading well. I am usually a patient person who understands maths and would never gamble with the odds not in my favour, yet I find it hard to control my emotions which let my trading down with impulsive clicking and overstaking after a string of losses. Bank management is one of the pillars of trading I need to work on.

I keep telling myself that with enough quality practice and reviewing I should make it eventually but it's disheartening to have put a good 2000+ hours into this and feel like even breakeven is a lifetime away. I enjoy it and feel like this is what I want to do especially in the current job climate, so I won't give up yet and will continue to try and manage my losses to avoid any significant financial damage. I suppose the place to start is to look for a setup I'm good at and try and keep patient and discliplined

i've been trying on and off for 5 years but still not profitable I dont give it my full attention anymore, but go through binges over a week or so and feel like i am learning more then it suddenly seems to go out the window again.

This is what I'm like when attempting full automation and trying/testing new rules/conditions. One argument is I'm not giving the processes enough time to pull around, but I'm quite quick at spotting something that doesn't work, or I don't fully understand.

I had to come to terms with what suited my "style" best, and stay within my comfort zone with regard to staking. Semi automation was better for me, allowing the entry point to be decided by a bot/software and manually manage the exit point, giving me an option to let it run, if in-play.

My preferred style was more swing than scalping in markets that "behaved" better and could be anticipated more. ie: football.

I also accepted that combining more conventional backing/laying methods with trading was okay too. In this case, some knowledge of the sport is useful and makes it fun to get involved. ie: Creating my own horse ratings on a spreadsheet and focussing on value odds, and/or poor fav's to L2B.

I also decided a couple of years ago to attend Peter Webbs' Masterclass course. (There maybe another one in the pipeline) Add in his excellent you-tube videos and the free to register Bet Angel academy, it gives everyone a fighting chance.

In the past, when something I worked on, researched and invested time and resources into, went to shite, I had to put in a box, reset/review and start with a blank piece of paper. There were some good things I had learned along the way, and picked up some bad habits, so I had to be honest with myself and cast them aside.

Winning consistently can also create a god complex and as soon as you think you're untouchable, the markets teach you a lesson. So the trick is working on the psychological aspects of gambling/trading is always a good reset. (I call it re-building the foundation)

Putting everything to one side for a week/2 weeks is sometimes a good idea. F.O.M.O. exists, so understand that there's will be plenty of sport/markets to learn about and be kind to yourself.

One thing is for sure, with this Covid shite we all have to deal with, finding something that can support working from home, is something to strive for.

[jamesg46]

Going to post my trading journey here in the hope it helps me or anyone else reading. When I exhausted my matched betting accounts with bookmakers I started learning and practising pre-off racing and have been fascinated with it for the last 2 years. I had a decent amount of savings so after finishing my last job I decided to do this full-time to give it the best shot I could.

For the last 2 years I have been trading 7 days a week most weeks, I have had a lot of help from a profitable trader with calls and videos, have watched many of Betangel's videos 10-20 times every now and then, have read books such as Trading in the Zone, recorded my trading and sat up at night rewatching my trades and tracking my P&L, studied psychology and financial markets but I am still struggling to become profitable at the end of the

Sounds like you are doing all the right things and reading all the right books.

I’ve been thinking about getting a professional trader to help me with calls and videos too. Who did you use? And did you have to pay, or was it somebody you know who took you under their experienced wing for free?

Its not really my place to tell people what they should or shouldn't do but....

Imo there is absolutely 100% definitely no need to pay for the time of a professional. One thing & the only thing I miss about Twitter is the Bet Angel feed. Peter posts gold nuggets on a regular basis, to the point where not so long back it was to the equivalent of having a free trading session with him for a whole afternoon.

People will offer others their perspective but there is no guarantee of understanding, it's the understanding that is priceless.... in summary, what I'm trying to get at is, the information is already there & its there in detail for free, sometimes as its happening.

Again, its definitely not for me to say do or don't, im just giving my opinion. Personally I've never used such a service, ive been very lucky, I've been able to pinch Peters time through meeting him, chatting with him & of course the main bulk of content that's made available through his time spent.

[xtrader16]

One of the reasons you are not being consistently successful is you haven't figured out why the markets are moving the way that they do.

I feel your frustration in spending day and night analysing your trading and looking at your P&L and banging your head against a brick wall. I literally banged my heand on my desk only last week (bad idea).

There are things that nobody is going to tell you. If this information got out into the public peoples trading profits would deteriorate. You have to find out what these things are before you start putting money into the ladders.

You can watch all the videos you want but they essentially tell you nothing that you actually need to know. Once you find the answer you will think is that it? Is that all I need to know but finding the answer is the hard part.

Good Luck on your journey, most people (I think) never get there. I might be one of them.

If you want a clue find out exactly why the Titanic ship sunk. I think you need to have a fundamental grasp on what exactly it is you are trading. Some people seem to think you can look at the ladders and they could contain a variety of different types of corn or wheat. These are Horse Racing markets and people tend to forget the fundamentals behind what they are trading. You really need to have a knowledge of what you are backing and laying. Some people, those who know more than you do, will dispute this and say it could be corn or wheat they dont care. But as a novice trade if you understand the complexities of the race you should understand what is going on in the ladder.

Ask yourself why something is drifting and why is another being backed apart from momentum.

[Kai]

The great thing about these types of threads and discussions is that a lot of people want to pitch in, especially when you honestly open up about stuff, so you get an opportunity to see how people think and you gain a bit of an insight into their perspectives and methods. As they say, many ways to skin a cat, and different things work for different people, which is the ultimate disclaimer I think, but you do get an option to pick up what you want or like.

People may not share everything in a single post and lay it all out with simple-to-follow instructions, but across a hundred posts it's a different story and you can get a good idea about their work and approaches, similarly to videos like Peter's where you won't get everything in a single video but may get something if you piece a lot of them together etc.

[alexmr2]

Thanks for all the good advice here. Today I have detached myself from the market emotionally by strictly sticking to one stake and a risk:reward ratio, which has allowed me to breakeven at worst (better than losing £50 in a day) and help me to see what I need to work on next. Considering almost all of my entries got matched and I took more small losses then double wins I think that I need more favourable entries. Logically there should be no reason why it is any harder to get further into the green than into the red right over the long-term right?

I've been through the same cycle countless times where I start to make some progress, get overconfident and push things unrealistically hard, only to end up back at square one. Then I realise that even the best traders can be successful by only taking a few ticks (not 20 every trade) and even the best ones scratch half of their trades, it takes a long time to accept you are going to be wrong half of the time if that is your strategy.

[Atho55]

Have you thought about putting your entry criteria into Guardian if possible and managing the trade manually once matched?

[alexmr2]

Imo there is absolutely 100% definitely no need to pay for the time of a professional

I agree, I suppose it could be compared to paying a celebrity gym instructor. You can pay all you want but 99% of the work is down to you at the end of the day. In trading it doesn't make much financial sense for the mentor to give up their time or true edge. I was fortunate to have some free help from someone I came across through FB groups (95% of the people on their don't have a clue), and having someone to talk to about trading benefits both of us in such a lonely game. Everyone else in the group gave up before they even started

[LeTiss]

I sympathise greatly

It's a major issue for everyone when going from part-time to self-employed. When you are picking little acorn green screens as a part-timer, they feel you with delight.....it's money on top of your main income

When you go self-employed though, little acorns aren't enough. You have bills to pay, so fall into the trap of overstaking or letting trades run too far, and all of a sudden a green screen has now become a red one

It's also easy to lose confidence. When part-time you can afford to be brash, as you know you can reimburse the bank when you get paid.......not when self-employed you can't. This can make you cautious, too cautious at times.

Trading is a balancing act between being confident, but not over confident

[JohnT]

It's a tough game Alex.

I don't understand why you think your trading should be profitable.

[goat68]

It's a tough journey and I've only been at pre-race horses for 6 months. The market pushes me all over the place...

[Anbell]

It's a tough game Alex.

I don't understand why you think your trading should be profitable.

This is maybe the wisest post on the forum.

[alexmr2]

It's a tough game Alex.

I don't understand why you think your trading should be profitable.

This is maybe the wisest post on the forum.

I see trading as a game, albeit a very serious one. In a typical market there is a big pot of money say £300k, a lot of this money is dumb, people are stupid and always will be (me and my emotions included at this point but not in the same way as the mug punters who make up some of that pot of money). This creates inefficiencies which makes it possible to skim a tiny percentage off that pot, even just £10 or £20 of the £300,000 is enough (or a smaller loss if it doesn't work).

So people that are very well practised can turn up to this game and spot an opportunity from patterns which allows them to make a trade which either has more chance of winning than losing or has a bigger potential upside than downside. If this is done consistently then they should have a positive expectancy much the same way a car dealer has a positive expectancy from buying below market value and selling above.

The problem is that most of this pot of money is smart, it is a zero sum game after all so not everyone can win especially those that are new. So what I'm trying to say that with enough quality practice and self-development to work on overcoming the things which prevent consistency such as emotions and bank management, it should be possible to become profitable eventually?

Big emphasis on the quality practice and constant self-development to recognise and avoid the places I lose money instead of trading every race

[darchas]

In a typical market there is a big pot of money say £300k, a lot of this money is dumb, people are stupid and always will be (me and my emotions included at this point but not in the same way as the mug punters who make up some of that pot of money). This creates inefficiencies which makes it possible to skim a tiny percentage off that pot, even just £10 or £20 of the £300,000 is enough (or a smaller loss if it doesn't work).

I see this sentiment expressed quite a lot but how true is it? How much of that money actually is 'dumb' and what makes it dumb? And if there is indeed a big chunk of 'dumb' money how exactly can you exploit it?

These are just some questions that naturally arise for me but I do think it's important to drill into these things. My own view is that five minutes before the off horse race trading is one of the hardest places on the exchange to make money, so much of the action here is smoke and mirrors that you can end up chasing ghosts. I'm interested in what it is you see here that leads you to believe you can make money here even after having put in so much effort.

Not trying to be antagonistic in any way btw, I'm hoping that this thread if anything helps you clarify and sharpen your own thinking and really helps you focus on your approach.

[JohnT]

No matter how dumb the owner of the money he can't lose at a higher rate than 1.5% in a 101.5% market. If the market price is 8/1 that the price he gets,
he might have been happy to accept 5/1 but he has to take the 8/1.

If there is £300K bet(£600K matched) on a race there is only £4.5K profit margin to share so you're trying to skim £10 or £20 from £4.5K and not £300K.

"So people that are very well practised can turn up to this game and spot an opportunity from patterns which allows them to make a trade which either has more chance of winning than losing or has a bigger potential upside than downside"

You don't know for sure that is the case.You might repeat the claim you're having a lot of help from a profitable trader but that just doesn't make sense.

Either way it's bad news for you because if people can do what you claim, it means you are competing with them for the same bets and the amount available at any given price is usually relatively small.

I'd be surprised if anyone with zero knowledge of horse racing makes a living purely by trading.

I have zero knowledge and made the best part of £100K one year.
But that was 2001 and by 2002 I had packed it in.

There is every chance that what you are trying to do is impossible,
it's now a matter of how much more of your life you're going to waste finding that out.