2 Years and still struggling

[goat68]

I've studied the structure of the markets a lot in 20 years and there is a lot of dumb money in the market. I've gathered data from a number of sources to understand exactly what is going on the in market. I can elaborate next week when I have some more time if you like.

You don't really need to worry about that aspect.

I'd be interested in a video also please Peter, although i'm intrigued by your last sentence "You don't really need to worry about that aspect." ??

[Korattt]

keep studying that’s what I say, one day something will click

[Morbius]

I've studied the structure of the markets a lot in 20 years and there is a lot of dumb money in the market. I've gathered data from a number of sources to understand exactly what is going on the in market. I can elaborate next week when I have some more time if you like.

You don't really need to worry about that aspect.

I'd be interested in a video also please Peter, although i'm intrigued by your last sentence "You don't really need to worry about that aspect." ??

There will always be dumb money in any financial market but the problem is that nobody thinks it's them.

The metric should be....no proven demonstrable success should equate to dumb until proven otherwise. An old poker adage....if after fifteen minutes at a poker table you haven't spotted the sucker...it's you.

One of the most important questions a trader needs to ask is who am I making money against? Who is my strategy beating and how and why? If you can identify that then you likely have an edge in the market. If you can't answer that then you likely dont. You don't need to back test to prove an edge either because you can do so conceptually and theoretically but that requires hard work. Two years isn't that long to really understand trading. Many find successful methods in their first year but don't stay the course. This is because many purely quant driven methods have a shelf life.

To become a trader takes time and the average is three to five years to really understand it. I have spoken to many winning traders who didn't have deep trading knowledge but never realised they didnt. So keep at it....keep learning and explore many avenues because in doing so you will get a deeper rounded education at the end of it. And real trading skills are transferable because of the knowledge depth.

"All who wander are not lost" - Tolkien

[Morbius]

As an add on...you don't need to become the best to take money from the best. It's simply a case of identifying what's happening in the market and how dumb money
loses. it not unlike winning from a bookmaker in so much that you don't beat the bookie...you are simply transferring wealth from losing punters via the bookmaker and is similar to doing it against market makers

[wearthefoxhat]

I've studied the structure of the markets a lot in 20 years and there is a lot of dumb money in the market. I've gathered data from a number of sources to understand exactly what is going on the in market. I can elaborate next week when I have some more time if you like.

You don't really need to worry about that aspect.

I'd be interested in a video also please Peter, although i'm intrigued by your last sentence "You don't really need to worry about that aspect." ??

There will always be dumb money in any financial market but the problem is that nobody thinks it's them.

The metric should be....no proven demonstrable success should equate to dumb until proven otherwise. An old poker adage....if after fifteen minutes at a poker table you haven't spotted the sucker...it's you.

One of the most important questions a trader needs to ask is who am I making money against? Who is my strategy beating and how and why? If you can identify that then you likely have an edge in the market. If you can't answer that then you likely dont. You don't need to back test to prove an edge either because you can do so conceptually and theoretically but that requires hard work. Two years isn't that long to really understand trading. Many find successful methods in their first year but don't stay the course. This is because many purely quant driven methods have a shelf life.

To become a trader takes time and the average is three to five years to really understand it. I have spoken to many winning traders who didn't have deep trading knowledge but never realised they didnt. So keep at it....keep learning and explore many avenues because in doing so you will get a deeper rounded education at the end of it. And real trading skills are transferable because of the knowledge depth.

"All who wonder are not lost" - Tolkien

[Wicksay]

Where is your profitability? How far have you drilled down into your own trades and your own trading circumstances? Your thread has prompted me to do my own analysis after two months trading.

Having worked in data analytics and MIS technology for years I've learnt to see a dataset as a rubric's cube e.g. from multiple viewpoints.

Here's my checklist:

General:
Using betangel v using exchange
Doing something else while trading v focused
On my phone v on mylaptop
Research v jump in
Entry on the Lay side v back side
Cashout v greeup
Weekday v Weekend
Daytime v evening
Set entry & exit criteria v eyeball
Good weather v poor weather

Football:
1st half v 2nd half
Overs v unders
Home v away
Prem league v other leagues

Tennis:
Underdog v fav
Opening service games v later in the match
1st set v 2nd set
ATP v WPT
Hard v clay v grass v indoors

Golf & Horses are practice mode at this stage

I'm profitable, in both tennis and football in the first part of the events, with research, on the ATP and Prem leagues, focused, setting entry and exit criteria. In need to drill down more to understand lay or back side and Overs v Unders and fav v udog, surface conditions & weather.

I'm not profitably overall!! Losses come from; chasing a -ive trade, being distracted, being stupid, jumping in, lack of knowledge/skill.

Find your profitability. Language is very powerful, being glass half full can sometimes be all the difference.

Good luck, and thank you for openly sharing, just what us newbies need to keep our feet on the ground.

Wicksay/ticketeeboo