Rapid movement

The sport of kings.
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prestburydreams
Posts: 124
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 7:47 pm

Hi any advice gratefully received

I have been watching the markets and I will set the scenario

A race today 7 runners nursery handicap 4 mins before the off favourite could not break 3.0 to 2.8

the 4th in the market had taken money from 10s to 7.6 but was the only horse coming in the rest slowly pretty much stagnant

I'm watching the markets and not talking through my pocket as I lost and won nothing

I formed the opinion that the lack of support for all the other runners bar 1 the favourite which had been a drifter on the long term chart albeit a small drift and for small money would come in if it broke 2.82 as it had tested 3.0 a number of times sure enough it obliged and after 2 mins of trading between 2.82 and 2.62 it had flat lined at 2.6

Trading time left less then 2 minutes the horse briefly settled 2.6 and I mean briefly then on the market overview chart there was a steep line upwards fav and and within 10 secs it was 2.92 ish and 20 seconds 3 25

So from the initial movement which I thought would happen I would of definitely reduced my stake by half but would of also waited at 2.6 to maximise my profit to see if the move would of continued and know for a fact I would of gone from green to red as there was no reaction time it went like a rocket

As experienced traders do you just accept that was a bolt out the blue as there was only ever 1 horse apart from the favourite coming in and then everything bar the second fav the eventual winner coming


The drift horse was beaten by the horse which was backed but they literally went against each other like flicking a switch so as a inexperienced trader did I get caught knapping and focusing on just the horse I would of traded I still had eyes on the overview market and there was no change until it launched off

the second fav had barely moved either way until the big move forcing it in but the moves were so quick if u were on the wrong side unless u had a stop loss u would of been taking the full hit is this a just a reflection of my poor market knowledge or just dodgy lingfield winter markets mixed in as in my opinion you would of needed a crystal ball to see such quick aggression coming like that in that space of time

I'm spending my time watching for the obvious moves which you do get everyday some days are better then others but there are really alot more of races like this inbetween and suspect these are the markets which sort the wheat from the chaff and are why so many fail as within the blink of an eye you go from being correct in your market reading and then within an instance ur mostly likely paying to learn AGAIN

Also the over the longer term the second fav had come in and the favourite had gone out the favourites longer term graph looked like a range of mountain peaks with a definite trough in it and the second fav looked like a capital S but sun bathing at 45 degrees and definitely more curved then spiked


Steak egg mushrooms beans and chips for tea I think and may be a bottle of cidre good evening and happy New year
TraderFred
Posts: 194
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

Sounds like a nice tea, happy new year.
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

prestburydreams wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:04 pm
As experienced traders do you just accept that was a bolt out the blue as there was only ever 1 horse apart from the favourite coming in and then everything bar the second fav the eventual winner coming
It's a bit like describing what happened in a football match to somebody who hasn't watched it and asking for an opinion. :)

I can only say it may be self-defeating to overanalyse a market. You can apply a strategy to 10 similar markets, have winning markets, a few losing ones and one disaster. But if you've made a profit over all of them, instead of analysing what went wrong you could conclude it's an acceptable occasional loss.
Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

I didn't trade anything today, but from what I can understand of your description, you're saying that the trend at 4 minutes was completely reversed at 2 minutes and the movement from then on was sudden and unpredictable?

If so, that's not unusual for these kind of markets, in lesser quality days and/or if there are races closer together (was this the 1.30? did the Warwick 1.20 finish late?) then it can flip easily a few minutes out. The trend at 4 minutes often has very little meaningful money on it, it's more like trading greyhounds, where in the last minute something at 6 can suddenly plummet to 4, or a near evens favourite can shoot off to 3.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

I wasn't actively trading today but it sounds like a good example to why you should have an exit in mind before you get involved in the market.

If I understand it right it went from 2.86 into 2.6 and shot back out to 3.25. If you backed at 2.82 and laid off half off your liability around 2.6 then you would have had a green ladder up to around 3 giving you plenty of time to react to the reversal.
prestburydreams
Posts: 124
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 7:47 pm

So given the time of year when will get good quality markets just on the tv race days shown on a Saturday
prestburydreams
Posts: 124
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 7:47 pm

Yes tetras very good nice spot it was the 1.30
invisiblelayer
Posts: 245
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2010 7:08 pm

prestburydreams wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:04 pm
Hi any advice gratefully received

I have been watching the markets and I will set the scenario

A race today 7 runners nursery handicap 4 mins before the off favourite could not break 3.0 to 2.8

the 4th in the market had taken money from 10s to 7.6 but was the only horse coming in the rest slowly pretty much stagnant

I'm watching the markets and not talking through my pocket as I lost and won nothing

I formed the opinion that the lack of support for all the other runners bar 1 the favourite which had been a drifter on the long term chart albeit a small drift and for small money would come in if it broke 2.82 as it had tested 3.0 a number of times sure enough it obliged and after 2 mins of trading between 2.82 and 2.62 it had flat lined at 2.6

Trading time left less then 2 minutes the horse briefly settled 2.6 and I mean briefly then on the market overview chart there was a steep line upwards fav and and within 10 secs it was 2.92 ish and 20 seconds 3 25

So from the initial movement which I thought would happen I would of definitely reduced my stake by half but would of also waited at 2.6 to maximise my profit to see if the move would of continued and know for a fact I would of gone from green to red as there was no reaction time it went like a rocket

As experienced traders do you just accept that was a bolt out the blue as there was only ever 1 horse apart from the favourite coming in and then everything bar the second fav the eventual winner coming


The drift horse was beaten by the horse which was backed but they literally went against each other like flicking a switch so as a inexperienced trader did I get caught knapping and focusing on just the horse I would of traded I still had eyes on the overview market and there was no change until it launched off

the second fav had barely moved either way until the big move forcing it in but the moves were so quick if u were on the wrong side unless u had a stop loss u would of been taking the full hit is this a just a reflection of my poor market knowledge or just dodgy lingfield winter markets mixed in as in my opinion you would of needed a crystal ball to see such quick aggression coming like that in that space of time

I'm spending my time watching for the obvious moves which you do get everyday some days are better then others but there are really alot more of races like this inbetween and suspect these are the markets which sort the wheat from the chaff and are why so many fail as within the blink of an eye you go from being correct in your market reading and then within an instance ur mostly likely paying to learn AGAIN

Also the over the longer term the second fav had come in and the favourite had gone out the favourites longer term graph looked like a range of mountain peaks with a definite trough in it and the second fav looked like a capital S but sun bathing at 45 degrees and definitely more curved then spiked


Steak egg mushrooms beans and chips for tea I think and may be a bottle of cidre good evening and happy New year
Did you have the live stream on mate? I wasn't involved in this race but the result says the fav was unruly loading so might have shown some temperament at the post?
invisiblelayer
Posts: 245
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2010 7:08 pm

Stella Cidre, not had that for a while :lol: love that thatchers gold stuff but it destroys me with heartburn for a few days after so never touch it now
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

invisiblelayer wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:00 pm
Stella Cidre, not had that for a while :lol: love that thatchers gold stuff but it destroys me with heartburn for a few days after so never touch it now
Henry Westons is the solution. Really nice but you'll know you've drank them the next day.
Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

prestburydreams wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:49 pm
So given the time of year when will get good quality markets just on the tv race days shown on a Saturday
The middle of the cards can be alright, especially feature races, or big meetings like Ascot, Newmarket. Otherwise, just the TV days, big part of why I haven't traded since Tuesday, or whenever the last one it was. Been waiting for Friday, rather than lose all my holiday profit trying to trade dross.
invisiblelayer
Posts: 245
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2010 7:08 pm

jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:24 pm
invisiblelayer wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:00 pm
Stella Cidre, not had that for a while :lol: love that thatchers gold stuff but it destroys me with heartburn for a few days after so never touch it now
Henry Westons is the solution. Really nice but you'll know you've drank them the next day.
Yes lovely stuff, Thatchers Katy is really nice but the Westons vintage was my favourite cider readily available from the shops.
wilf
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:34 pm

prestburydreams wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:51 pm
Yes tetras very good nice spot it was the 1.30
I traded that race. Thapa Vc drifted rapidly because it was playing up rearing, plus the 2nd and 3rd were also being backed.
prestburydreams
Posts: 124
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 7:47 pm

Saturday itv races much easier starting point after watching some markets this afternoon

I work pretty much every Saturday so don't get to see these markets but I found them much easier to read the races had 200k matched 10.mins before the off I don't normally see that at race time on the all weather evening cards which can be soul destroying to try to learn to trade on

Happy I would of made a profit today especially strong pursuit race the turn around in direction was easy enough to spot and boy did it turn
Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

prestburydreams wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:08 pm
Saturday itv races much easier starting point after watching some markets this afternoon

I work pretty much every Saturday so don't get to see these markets but I found them much easier to read the races had 200k matched 10.mins before the off I don't normally see that at race time on the all weather evening cards which can be soul destroying to try to learn to trade on

Happy I would of made a profit today especially strong pursuit race the turn around in direction was easy enough to spot and boy did it turn
They're much easier, for sure, at least they have been for me. Which is something that is consistent all year. The margin for error is generally much bigger too, so mistakes are usually less costly.
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